Hi Global Recap readers,
Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas!
For years, I’ve used “Happy Holidays” and “Merry Christmas” interchangeably.
I didn’t think much of it until a couple years ago, when someone told me it can be “offensive” to say “Merry Christmas.”
That genuinely surprised me. I have friends who are Chinese (who don't officially celebrate Christmas), Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, etc., and plenty of them say it without meaning anything religious by it. In a lot of countries, Christmas is also just a national holiday and a cultural season.
Oddly, I’ve heard less pushback about this kind of thing this year.
So before we get started today, honest question:
When you were growing up, did you think of Christmas as primarily religious, or mostly cultural?
📃 CONTENTS
Coming Up
Today we’re covering three big stories:
Zelenskyy’s upcoming meeting with Trump
reports of a possible referendum in Ukraine
Putin escalates strikes (including hypersonic missiles) ahead of the talks.
Minnesota’s alleged $9 billion fraud problem
related scams and broader context
controversies surrounding Somali influence
Israel becoming the first country to recognize Somaliland
what that could mean geopolitically
why others are mad about it
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Peace Deal Update
Zelenskyy’s Florida Pitch
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy (left) and U.S. President Trump (right)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says he will meet U.S. President Trump in Florida on Sunday to push a US-brokered 20-point peace framework and, if needed, take the biggest political gamble of his presidency: a referendum.
Meeting: Zelenskyy says Sunday’s sit-down will target a trimmed-down 20-point plan (from the previous 28-point U.S.-Russia plan) he says is “90%” ready, plus separate papers on U.S. security guarantees and an economic agreement.
Referendum: Because any formal change to Ukraine’s territory would require an all-Ukrainian referendum under the Constitution, any peace deal that legally codifies territorial concessions would run into that requirement.
Zelenskyy has recently signaled openness to putting a U.S.-brokered package to a referendum—especially if a ceasefire can be secured—presumably to bolster legitimacy for any hard territorial decisions.
But it’s a huge gamble: a close result, low participation, or credible accusations of manipulation could trigger domestic instability. This is why elections and other nationwide votes are typically suspended during wartime, when security and legitimacy are harder to guarantee.
President Zelenskyy said it best:
“A referendum requires at least 60 days. And we need a real ceasefire for 60 days. Otherwise, we cannot conduct it. That means the referendum would not be legitimate. An illegitimate referendum means internal division of the state. In addition, a referendum is, in principle, a challenge. But a referendum can be unifying. And who would go to a referendum under shelling?”
Hypersonic Warning
But here’s the problem: there’s no way Putin is going to let Zelenskyy have a smooth, uninterrupted talk with Trump.
Strike: Mere hours ago, I started seeing reports of multiple launches toward Kyiv. It reportedly involved several Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, Iskander ballistic missiles, and Kalibr cruise missiles.
Impact: Kyiv Independent reporters heard waves of explosions across the city, with additional reports of power outages in Kyiv Oblast.
Coincidence?
Even before reports of the hypersonic missile attack on Kyiv began to emerge, researchers were warning that Russia appeared to be preparing a new Oreshnik missile deployment at a disused airbase in eastern Belarus.
Discovery: Jeffrey Lewis (Middlebury Institute of International Studies) and Decker Eveleth (CNA) say commercial Planet Labs images point to a Russian strategic missile base forming near Krichev, close to Belarus’s eastern edge.
Certainty: The pair put their confidence at about 90% that mobile launchers will be stationed at the former airbase, roughly 190 miles (307 km) from Minsk and about 300 miles (478 km) southwest of Moscow.
Buildout: The imagery shows fast construction starting in early August, plus a fenced rail transfer point that Eveleth called a “dead giveaway“ for moving missiles and launchers, and a new concrete pad at the runway end that Lewis described as consistent with a camouflaged launch point.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Minnesota Daycare
Money Trail
A Minnesota GOP leader is pressing Gov. Tim Walz after viral clips from independent journalist Nick Shirley spotlighted a Minneapolis daycare center with misspelled signs and no children present, along with a paper trail that suggests fraud.
Trigger: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R., Minn.) demanded answers after a YouTuber filmed the exterior of a building labeled "Quality Learing Center" on Nicollet Avenue in Minneapolis, noting no visible activity and no kids.
Money: In the video, YouTuber Nick Shirley points to what he says is a state disbursement figure of $1.9 million for fiscal year 2025, and alleges roughly $4 million in total payments connected to that one center.
Record: Separate local reporting has tied the same center name to a long list of cited violations from Minnesota’s human services regulators between 2019 and 2023, ranging from safety issues to missing child records, with multiple investigations into federally funded child care centers in the state.
Minnesota's $9B Fraud Web
But the alleged daycare fraud is not an isolated case. Shirley’s reporting coincides with federal prosecutors warning that Minnesota's safety-net programs may have lost up to $9 billion to alleged fraud involving sham service providers and nonprofits.
That is nearly 9x the earlier $1 billion estimate, and roughly half of the $18 billion in federal funds routed through Minnesota-administered programs since 2018.
Mechanism: The playbook was simple on paper and hard to police in practice: set up businesses or nonprofits, claim you provide housing help, food support, or health services, then bill state programs for services that never happened.
Prosecution: The defendant list keeps growing, with 92 people charged so far and 57 convictions (Feeding Our Future case), according to prosecutors.
82 out of the 92 defendants charged in the various fraud schemes are Somali Americans.
Multiple outlets describe defendants using proceeds for luxury spending, moving funds overseas, etc.
📌 Context: Minnesota’s Child Care Assistance Program helps pay for child care for eligible families, which means large reimbursements can flow through licensed providers.
Minnesota’s “Feeding Our Future” scandal began unraveling in 2022, and it became a gateway case that pushed federal investigators into other state-administered programs where paperwork-heavy reimbursements made it easy to invent clients, visits, and outcomes.
Controversies (Flag & Hijab)
Former Minnesota flag
Minnesota flag
Somali flag
The flag on the very left was Minnesota’s flag before the state adopted a redesigned flag in 2024, during Gov. Walz’s tenure. Soon after the new design was revealed, some critics said it resembled Somalia’s flag, though how similar they are is disputed.
Context: Minnesota’s State Emblems Redesign Commission solicited public flag submissions, narrowed and refined the finalists, and then voted to adopt the final design.
Additionally, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan recently came under criticism for wearing a hijab, which some critics said was an attempt to pander to Somali voters.
🇮🇱 ISRAEL
Israel Recognizes Somaliland
Somaliland President Abdullahi (left) and Israeli PM Netanyahu (right)
Speaking of Somalia: Israel just issued formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, the first country to do so in more than three decades since the territory broke from Somalia.
Signatures: Israeli PM Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Sa’ar signed for Israel, while Somaliland President Abdullahi signed for Somaliland.
Pitch: Abdullahi framed the deal as Somaliland’s on-ramp to the Abraham Accords, saying the partnership is about stability and prosperity across the Middle East and Africa, not just a new flag on a map.
Backstory: Somaliland says it had a brief recognized independence in 1960 before uniting with Somalia, then declared a break in 1991 as Somalia collapsed. It has run its own elections and peaceful transfers of power, but has stayed locked out of many loans, aid channels, and investment because almost nobody recognizes it.
Motives: Israeli media reported Abdullahi made a secret Israel visit in October, meeting Netanyahu, Mossad chief Barnea, and Defense Minister Katz.
Why?
Apologies for the crude arrows 😬
So, you may be asking why Israel would do this. Somaliland sits across from Yemen, and access to its territory or airspace could strengthen Israeli surveillance and strike options against Iran-backed Houthi forces.
Blowback: Naturally, Somalia’s government called the recognition a deliberate attack on its sovereignty, while Egypt, Turkey, and Djibouti condemned it in coordinated statements. Saudi Arabia also opposed the move, and the African Union’s chair, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, warned that recognizing Somaliland risks a dangerous precedent for African borders.
📌 Context: Somaliland has operated like a de facto state since 1991, but international law and African Union norms heavily favor existing borders, so recognition is rare. Israel’s decision tests that norm in public, and it invites retaliation from Somalia’s allies in a region already tense over Yemen, shipping lanes, and great-power competition in the Horn of Africa.
