Hi Global Recap readers,
Well, looks like I was unfortunately right that President Trump would call off the strike after getting a call from Pakistan.
(during market hours too)
What I didn’t expect was them talking him into it by saying a deal with Iran was just around the corner (supposedly).
Now, we are getting at least 60 more days of this.
Didn’t he just accuse Iran of stalling though? 👇🏼
👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: The US hits Iran again after the Apache incident near Hormuz, Iran claims attacks on US-linked targets in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and President Trump threatens more bombing if Tehran refuses a deal.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukrainian strikes move from burning Russian oil sites to pinching fuel in occupied Sevastopol, where Russia-installed officials cancel and reissue gas coupons after trucks fail to arrive.
🇱🇻 Latvia: A French fighter on NATO duty shoots down a drone over Latvia near the Russian border, the alliance's first drone shootdown over Latvia since Russia's Ukraine war began.
🇨🇳🇰🇵 China-North Korea: Chinese President Xi Jinping visits North Korea for the first time in 7 years.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Deal to Deal
Mojtaba Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (left), and US President Donald Trump (right).
US President Trump said he was calling off planned strikes on Iran after the final points of a deal had been approved by Iran's top leadership. Reportedly, the US military was 3 hours from launching.
However, as always, Iran is saying the opposite: no final decision, no signed text, and no nuclear surrender.
So who to trust?
The Deal
CNN put together this tongue-in-cheek compilation of President Trump saying a deal with Iran was just around the corner. According to CNN, yesterday marked the 39th such claim.
Strait. The working MOU would reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately, restore pre-war shipping volumes within 30 days, and lift the US blockade.
Sanctions. Iran would get temporary oil waivers for 60 days, with broader sanctions relief tied to compliance.
Nuclear. Actual nuclear details would be negotiated over the next 60 days and finalized in a second agreement.
That is essentially “a deal → to discuss a deal → to eventually sign a deal.”
The Catch
Paper. Trump described this as a "very strong memorandum of understanding" that is still "a little conceptual."
Signoff. The text reportedly still lacked approval from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Iran's foreign ministry said most text was ready, but Tehran had not made a "final decision."
Spin. Here's Khosro Isfahani, research director at the National Union for Democracy in Iran, saying on Fox that Iranian regime outlets were celebrating the cancellation of the US strike. Iranian news outlets and foreign ministry reportedly said:
"TACO Trump has chickened again."
Isfahani goes on to say that IRGC-linked media is saying that the US ended up accepting the very deal Iran proposed from the start.
The Internet Mood
One X post captured that frustration.
The market did the easy thing. Oil dropped and stocks rallied on deal hopes.
The public reaction is messier.
Some Trump critics, foreign accounts, and exhausted supporters are treating the reversal as another TACO moment.
That said, many avid Trump supporters are praising President Trump for his ability to get the Iranian regime to come to the negotiating table.
Possible Escalations
A few things to keep in mind heading into the weekend:
Hormuz. Iranian forces reportedly blocked a tanker from entering the strait without prior coordination, which undercuts the idea that shipping is already normalizing.
Drones. A US official said American forces shot down 2 Iranian one-way attack drones that appeared to target commercial ships in Hormuz.
Ceasefire. The US and Iran are still trading fire around a "nominal ceasefire." The pause is being priced like relief, but the actual military picture still looks one bad order away from another round.
🇨🇫🇺🇸 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC & US
Deportation Detour
Central African Republic’s capital Bangui.
The Trump administration is planning to send Iranians and other migrants to Central African Republic, using a third-country deportation deal for people the US may not be able to send home legally.
Background.
2 Iranian women on the potential flight were detained upon arriving in the US in Nov. 2024.
Then they applied for asylum and won the protection known as withholding of removal—granted by US immigration judges who find that they face a greater-than-50% risk of persecution or torture in Iran.
Flight. The first plane could carry about 20 people, including Syrians, Afghans, and possibly a Turkish national with similar protection.
Destination. DHS says deportees get full due process.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Crimea Gets Pinched (More)
Ukraine has hit 4 more bridges on the northern approaches to occupied Crimea, widening a drone campaign that is making Russia's land routes to the peninsula slower, riskier, and harder to keep patched.
Bridges. Russian-installed Kherson official Vladimir Saldo said drones struck crossings near:
Preobrazhenka
Myrne
Perekop-Armiansk
Stavky
Limits. This does not mean Crimea is fully cut off. Russia still has the Kerch Bridge and can repair or improvise crossings, but each reroute adds time and exposes more traffic.
Fuel. Occupied Sevastopol's fuel rationing got worse after tanker trucks failed to enter the city, with QR-code petrol access deactivated and black-market prices reportedly spiking.
Two upsides for Ukraine:
Ukraine is turning Crimea from a secure rear base into a constant logistical headache for Russia.
Fighting inside Ukraine is easy for most Russians to tune out of their minds. But when the war starts hitting closer to home, it becomes much harder to ignore (and harder not to start asking questions of Putin).
🌐 NATO
Less American Cover
in Europe
The US reportedly plans to cut a major chunk of the aircraft and warships it makes available for NATO operations in Europe.
Message. The plan is still not independently verified, but it fits the harder message the US already gave allies: “Europe needs to carry more of the conventional fight.”
Aircraft. The reported plan would:
cut F-16 and F-15E fighter jets from about 150 → 100
reduce maritime reconnaissance aircraft from 26 → 15
remove all 8 aerial refueling tankers assigned to Europe.
Ships. It would also reallocate a missile-launching submarine, an aircraft carrier, several warships, and one of 2 bomber groups previously assigned for Europe's defense.
Gap. The immediate effect would be less US-backed surveillance and long-range strike capacity for NATO unless European allies and Canada fill the missing pieces fast. On the flip side, it would also mean less US military sway in Europe.
