Another Coup?

Hi Global Recap readers,

I remember growing up watching both successful and failed coups unfold in Thailand.

• In my mind, whenever I think of the country, there’s always a military leader at the center of the picture.

• Today, Thailand finally has a civilian government, but for how long?

With a wave of nationalism sweeping across Thailand now, some fear the country may be on the verge of yet another coup. Likely? 👇️

🌐 WORLD
Fast Scroll News

🇷🇸 Protesters Smash Party HQ

Anti-government crowds in Novi Sad just demolished the ruling Serbian Progressive Party’s (SNS) offices, vowing to oust President Aleksandar Vucic for corruption. However, Vucic vowed "more arrests" on live TV.

• Context: After the Novi Sad train station roof caved in last November, killing 16 people, protests flared and never really stopped.

  • The disaster fueled public anger over alleged government corruption, and that outrage grew into nationwide rallies calling for early elections.

  • Officials insist they’ve done nothing wrong.

• Locations: The city of Novi Sad saw windows smashed, furniture tossed, and paint splashed at SNS offices. In Belgrade, rival groups hurled flares and firecrackers on a main boulevard, with police in riot gear intervening.

• Two-Way: That said, it isn't just the protestors causing havoc. There are also reports of ruling party supporters attacking demonstrators, further escalating violence.

• Response: Interior Minister Ivica Dacic said 27 officers and 80 civilians were injured, leading to 47 arrests.

🇷🇺 Putin Dangles Incentives

Tomorrow’s the big one: the Trump-Putin Alaska summit. And a former top Kremlin official thinks Putin will likely tempt Trump with some lucrative financial offers.

• The Setup: Now we know that the meeting was hastily arranged at Putin’s request.

  • Even more striking, it’s his first invite to meet a US president on American soil since he sat down with George W. Bush back in 2007.

  • So, you can bet he’s not flying all that way without a game plan.

• The Play: The ex-official, speaking anonymously, says, "Putin knows Trump sees the world through a business lens," and he will likely flash some financial incentives to nudge Trump toward backing Moscow over Ukraine.

  • And when Trump is all-ears, he will flip the script to make Zelenskyy look like the one dragging the war out.

🇬🇧 Starmer, Zelenskyy Align

Meanwhile, over at 10 Downing Street in London, Zelenskyy met UK PM Starmer to discuss security guarantees and money for Ukraine’s defense industry.

• Unity: A private breakfast ended with a "powerful sense of unity," plus a look ahead to Friday’s Trump–Putin talks in Alaska as a possible opening, if Moscow proves it’s serious.

• Guarantees: Kyiv wants durable commitments shaped around a US push to halt Russian attacks and move to real diplomacy, not just vague assurances.

• Drones: Zelenskyy also pitched UK-backed financing to scale domestic drone production fast, calling drones "decisive" and arguing investment could shift the strategic balance.

• Pacts: He urged London to join NATO’s "Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List" (PURL) munitions program and flagged a "one hundred year partnership" with the UK that Ukraine aims to ratify in August.

🇵🇰 Pakistan Detains Afghans

Pakistani police just detained dozens of Afghans in Islamabad, including some already approved for relocation to Germany under its Taliban-era protection program.

• Methods: Police raided multiple Islamabad guesthouses at night. Advocates say minors were separated from parents, and two sisters, 17 and 18, were taken without their family.

• Numbers: About 2,400 Afghans in Pakistan are awaiting transfer to Germany, including roughly 350 former local staff and their families.

• Targets: Detainees include people registered in German admissions programs who fled the Taliban after the 2021 takeover.

• Politics: Germany’s Interior Ministry says it is in contact via GIZ and reviewing legal obligations; Greens lawmaker Schahina Gambir called the deportations "a scandal," while the Left party’s Clara Bünger urged immediate visas.

🇹🇭 THAILAND
Army Edges
Toward Power

Border clashes with Cambodia are boosting Thailand’s generals while the civilian government trips over itself. And once again, people are tossing around the word coup again...

The ceasefire with Cambodia is hanging by a thread, the public’s faith is leaning toward the army, and a few big court decisions could blow everything wide open.

Context

• Timeline:

  • On May 28, a border skirmish between the two resulted in the the death of one Cambodian soldier.

  • On July 24 Thai soldiers hit landmines, triggering five days of fighting with 40+ dead and hundreds wounded.

• Ceasefire reality: Malaysia mediated as ASEAN chair and US President Trump warned of harsh export tariffs. In the end, a ceasefire was reached, but the truce is only partly upheld and remains fragile.

• Coup History: Thailand has seen at least 12 coups since 1931. After the 2014 coup, a junta ruled until a civilian government returned after the 2023 elections.

Civilian Oversight Craters

This recent conflict may have provided the military with the leverage it sought. Analysts now suggest that uniformed leaders are moving to fill the power vacuum left by a hesitant cabinet.

• The conflict "effectively gave the Thai military free rein" amid already minimal civilian oversight, said Napon Jatusripitak (visiting fellow at Singappore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute).

• In fact, in response to the July skirmish, Thai Second Army Region commander General Boonsin said retaliation was necessary with "no need to wait for orders from the government."

• According to one Thailand expert, border areas function "effectively under martial law," limiting civilian control. The army has undercut de-escalation since January.

Nail in the Coffin

But the real blow to Thailand’s civilian government came from the prime minister’s scandal.

• In June, PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra called former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, referring to him as "uncle," expressing "love and respect," and seemingly criticizing her own army.

• Hun Sen leaked the audio, prompting the conservative Bhumjaithai Party to quit the coalition and fueling treason allegations against the PM's Pheu Thai Party.

• As a result, the Constitutional Court suspended PM Paetongtarn in early July pending trial. A ban decision is expected by early September.

Public mood

So who do voters trust? Not the cabinet.

• An NIDA survey found the military most trusted to guard national interests and manage the Cambodia crisis. Only 15% expressed any trust in the civilian government.

• Additionally, a surge of nationalism appears to be rising. Celebrities and politicians have reportedly faced online harassment for being deemed "insufficiently patriotic," further strengthening the military’s influence.

What comes next

• That said, Thitinan Pongsudhirak (senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University) believe that another coup is "unlikely but never off the table."

• Another possible scenario is the return of former junta leader Prayut Chan-o-cha. His party, currently supporting the coalition, could push for his reinstatement to avoid an election that Pheu Thai might lose.