Hi Global Recap readers,
Exiled Crown Prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, went live a few hours ago, saying he still believes President Trump won’t repeat the pattern of past U.S. presidents who abandoned Iran—that he’ll be a man of his word.
However, Trump critics are mocking him of “coping.”
On the ground and abroad, protesters and supporters alike seem to be running out of hope.
But before we discuss whether Trump is caving, let’s talk about the Canadian P.M., who’s also getting flak for supposedly “selling out.” 👇🏼
🇨🇦 CANADA
Carney Doing What’s
Necessary, Or Caving?
Canadian Prime Minister Carney
After meeting Xi Jinping, Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced that Canada is making a defection move from the U.S. tariff pressure by cutting duties on a limited batch of Chinese E.V.s while China eases pain on Canadian canola.
Understandably, the U.S. doesn't seem too thrilled with this—saying that Canada will soon regret it.
Details
Numbers. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter under a most-favored-nation tariff rate of 6.1%, far below the 100% tariff imposed in 2024.
In return, China has committed to reducing tariffs on Canadian canola seeds to a combined rate of about 15% from roughly 85%.
It is also removing its 100% tariffs on canola meal.
Sweeteners. But that's not all. Carney added two extras on top:
China would make a "considerable investment into Canada’s auto sector" within three years.
China would allow visa-free travel for Canadian tourists.
Hypocrisy?
Carney labeled China as the biggest security threat in 2025.
Click for video
Pressure. Many interpret this as Canada inevitably seeking relief, as its relationship with the U.S. hasn’t been particularly cordial lately. Meanwhile, others are calling Carney an hypocrite for doing a complete 180 on China.
Doug Ford’s anti-tariff ad featuring a voiceover by President Reagan. The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute said the ad used "selective audio and video" and "misrepresented the Presidential Radio Address."
Click for video
Blowback. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, traveling with Carney and representing the canola industry, welcomed the news as a path toward restored trade volumes. Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned Ottawa was inviting a flood of cheaper Chinese EVs without "any real guarantee" of matching investment in Canada’s auto supply chain.
Yes, this is the same Doug Ford who reportedly spent millions airing an anti-tariff ad in the U.S., which led Trump to announce an additional 10% tariff on Canada.
📌 Context: Canada and China have been icy since 2018, when China detained two Canadians after Canada arrested a Huawei executive sought by the United States, with all three released in 2021.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & UNITED STATES
Thrown under the Bus?
Or 4D Chess?
President Trump’s recent post on Truth Social is sparking sharply polarized reactions online:
Anger. On one side, critics argue he’s effectively thrown the Iranian people under the bus.
They say he encouraged Iranians to risk their lives under the assumption the U.S. was prepared to back them.
Many are understandably angry that he is now “thanking” and “paying respect” to Iran’s Supreme Leader, even as he orders paramilitary forces to massacre protesters (various reports allege between 3,000 - 12,000).
Counter. On the other side, supporters (and some analysts) believe the post is strategic misdirection—an attempt to buy time and project restraint while the U.S. quietly repositions assets.
They point to reports that the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George H.W. Bush are moving toward the region.
However, they are expected to take roughly a week to be fully in position—fueling the argument that Trump “jumped the gun” rhetorically before the logistical pieces were in place.
“Suicide Because of Trump”
Noor Pahlavi, the eldest daughter of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, added to the controversy by sharing a social media post.
The shared image features messages from someone purportedly inside Iran.
The messages claim that there has been a rise in suicides, driven by despair and the belief that Trump is no longer going to take military action against the regime.
📊 Poll
Before I ask for your opinion, here’s where I’m at: I’m genuinely confused.
Even if he is playing 4D chess (if those early, hopeful messages to Iranian protesters were meant to deter the regime’s immediate threats of violence) then why pivot into this coy, almost conciliatory tone?
If tougher messaging really helped slow or stop the hangings, why ease off now instead of keeping the pressure on so people don’t lose hope while the U.S. gets into position? Why embolden Iran to bring in thousands of paramilitary members to execute protesters on the street?
Graphic video allegedly showing executed protesters. Please exercise extreme caution before clicking on the link. Also, take this with a grain of salt, as it cannot be verified.
Click for video (viewer discretion advised)
The best argument I’ve heard is that Trump is trying to lower the regime’s guard before striking, and that he won’t approve an attack unless he’s confident it wouldn’t simply prolong Iranians’ suffering, but would end it.
Maybe I’m coping too, but I’m still somewhat leaning toward “yes,” if reports of asset repositioning are true.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Trump’s Gaza Board Picks
Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump (right)
The White House says President Trump will chair a new seven-member Gaza "board of peace." This is being pitched as the steering group for the next phase of postwar reconstruction and governance in Gaza.
Setup. On Friday, January 16, 2026, the White House publicly rolled out a newly created Gaza "board of peace," chaired by Trump and described as a "founding executive board" with seven members. The administration says the board will guide Gaza through what it calls the next phase of stabilization, reconstruction, and governance, with more appointments expected in the coming weeks.
Roster. The named members include:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio,
Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair,
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff,
World Bank President Ajay Banga,
Jared Kushner.
Each member gets a defined lane tied to governance capacity-building, regional relations, reconstruction, investment attraction, large-scale funding, and capital mobilization.
Backstory. Of course, Blair’s inclusion is a surprise for many, because his Iraq war legacy isn't... well, let's say, not too great.
After leaving office, he became the special representative of the Quartet (U.S., E.U., Russia, U.N.) in 2007.
He then stepped down in 2015 after being criticized for being "too close to the Israelis."
Machinery. This group is separate from the 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee meant to handle day-to-day administration in postwar Gaza, led by Ali Sha’ath, plus an International Stabilization Force to oversee security, headed by Maj Gen Jasper Jeffers.
📌 Context: The White House is trying to formalize a postwar Gaza governance and reconstruction pathway as the ceasefire process moves into a second phase.
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION
Ukraine E.U. Fast Track?
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen (left) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (right)
The European Commission is quietly carving out a shortcut for Ukraine: join the E.U. sooner, but start with fewer rights.
Yes, this idea's been floating around for a while. It is reportedly an "early-stage idea" still. It also depends on whether Ukraine and Russia can actually come to a peace agreement before the proposed date.
Pitch. In Brussels on January 16, E.U. officials described a still-nascent concept of letting Ukraine accede quickly, but treat full membership benefits as something you "earn" later through transition periods, rather than receive on day one.
Tradeoff. Ukraine could get a seat at the E.U. table fast, then gain "staged access" to voting rights as it meets the bloc’s membership criteria, flipping the usual merit-first, rights-later timeline.
Reality. The 20-point peace plan being discussed by the U.S., Ukraine, and the E.U. reportedly had penciled in Ukrainian E.U. membership for 2027.
However, many E.U. capitals think fixed dates are fantasy, because accession is built on aligning laws with E.U. standards and still needs sign-off from all 27 member states and their national parliaments.
On top of all this, how about all the countries grinding through the traditional route, like Montenegro and Albania, which may see Ukraine's fast-track process as the union changing the rules to fit its agenda.
