"biological attack" in Hungary?

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Global Recap
April 11, 2025 • Read in: 9 minutes

Hi Global Recap readers,

Today felt... oddly calm. Relatively calm, anyway—especially after the chaos of the past few days with tariffs flying and the whole “Liberation Day” drama. It’s been a lot.

But is this just the eye of the storm? The US 10-year yield shot up to 4.5% after Trump’s Liberation Day announcement, then crashed back to 4.25% after he hit pause for 90 days—and now it’s climbing again, heading back toward 4.5%. That kind of whiplash isn’t just normal market noise. It’s starting to feel like something deeper might be cracking under the surface.

It’s starting to give off the same uneasy vibes as the September 2019 “repo crisis,” isn’t it?

  • Back then, liquidity vanished overnight and the Fed had to step in hard.

  • Tinfoil hat crowd says the whole COVID lockdown conveniently gave cover to fire up the money printer and paper over the cracks.

But of course, this is all conjecture for now. I just wanted to let you know of all the speculations out there in the wild.

Speaking of conjecture and outbreak, here’s one from Hungary: 👇️ 

🇭🇺 HUNGARY
Biological Attack in Hungary?

Hungary is currently battling its first foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in over 50 years.

What caused it? Officials are hinting at a possible “biological attack.”

Foot-and-Mouth Disease?

Firstly, what is Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)? 

It is a highly contagious viral illness that affects cloven-hoofed animals like cows, pigs, sheep, and goats. It spreads rapidly through direct contact, contaminated equipment, and even airborne particles in some conditions.

  • Symptoms include fever, blisters in the mouth and on feet, and lameness.

  • If this is giving you a flashback to the good-old COVID days, fear not. Thankfully, Foot-and-mouth disease doesn’t harm humans but causes severe issues for livestock and trade—triggering mass culls and export bans

  • The virus spreads fast, which is why outbreaks usually prompt immediate containment efforts.

  • Hungary’s cattle stock makes up 1.2% of the EU’s total.

  • The outbreak has led to significant trade restrictions and economic losses.

The Outbreak

The disease was detected last month on a cattle farm near Hungary’s borders with Austria and Slovakia.

  • It’s the first outbreak in more than half a century.

  • Thousands of cattle have been culled to contain the spread.

  • Austria and Slovakia have closed dozens of border crossings.

Biological Attack Theory

Hungary’s Prime Minister’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyás, suggested the virus might not be “natural.”

  • He mentioned “verbal information” from a foreign lab as the basis for this suspicion.

  • No concrete evidence or details about potential perpetrators have been provided.

Human Toll

Farmers are devastated by the outbreak and its economic impact.

  • Paul Meixner, a dual citizen of Austria and Hungary, lost 3,000 cattle, amounting to a $4.09 million loss.

  • Despite the setback, he’s determined to rebuild, starting with hay harvesting for next year.

🇨🇳 CHINA
Xi’s Southeast Asia
Charm Offensive

Chinese President Xi Jinping is heading to Southeast Asia next week, aiming to strengthen ties with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia amidst escalating trade tensions with the US.

Xi’s trip comes as the US keeps raising tariffs on China while granting a temporary reprieve to these three nations.

Xi’s Itinerary

Xi’s first overseas trip of the year is all about diplomacy.

  • He’ll visit Vietnam from April 14–15, followed by Malaysia and Cambodia from April 15–18.

  • The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced the trip on Friday.

Why Southeast Asia?

This is all a calculated response to US tariffs.

  • Trump recently imposed a 145% tariff on China while pausing tariffs on Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for 90 days.

  • These countries have benefited from supply chain shifts away from China but now face scrutiny from the US over transshipment of Chinese goods.

Regional Tensions

Xi’s visit isn’t without its challenges.

  • Vietnam disputes China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

  • Cambodia is considering reviving military exercises with the US.

  • Malaysia is under US scrutiny for allegedly shipping restricted Nvidia chips to China.

🔍 Observation:

A lot of people seem to be surprised China isn’t hitting back as fiercely as expected.

• Some say it’s backing down out of fear. • Others think it’s playing the victim card to avoid looking like the aggressor.

I've seen people claiming China’s about to invade Taiwan any day now. I’m not sure how true that is, but personally, I think it lines up more with the second idea. Maybe not exactly playing the “victim card,” but they’re definitely trying hard not to look like the bad guys.

My guess? It’s part of a bigger diplomatic strategy—trying to paint the US as the aggressor, win sympathy, and pull in more allies like the EU and India.

🇨🇳 CHINA
China Rehearsing for Invasion

Speaking of which, US officials are raising alarms over China stepping up military drills around Taiwan.

Same old story, right? But this time, a top US commander says it’s not just routine training—he’s calling them “rehearsals,” hinting at something way more serious on the horizon.

🤔 Thoughts:

It’s totally plausible these drills are rehearsals, but saying an invasion is just around the corner (as many online users claim) might be jumping the gun.

Take TSMC—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company—as a prime example. They’re practically untouchable in the chip-making world. Sure, Samsung’s in the game with advanced 3nm chips, but their yield rates just aren’t there yet.

If China were to invade and TSMC got hit—whether on purpose or as collateral damage—it wouldn’t just hurt Taiwan. It would slam the global tech supply chain, and China’s own economy would take a serious blow. With the social and economic pressure already bubbling at home, can Beijing really stomach that kind of instability?

Seems like a really risky gamble.

The Aggressive Moves

China’s military actions around Taiwan have increased by 300%.

  • Admiral Samuel Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command called these drills “rehearsals” during a Senate hearing.

  • Beijing’s goal? To intimidate Taiwan and assert dominance, despite Taiwan identifying as a sovereign nation.

🤣 Fun Fact: In President Trump's “Liberation Day” announcement, the tariff list referred to Taiwan as a “country.” That’s a major break from the traditional US policy of strategic ambiguity—where Washington doesn’t officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation but still offers quiet military support.

Take a look at the table below: 👇️ 

The Bigger Threat

China’s military modernization is outpacing the US in key areas.

  • They’re producing jets, ships, and weapons at alarming rates—building ships at a ratio of 6 to 1.8 compared to the US.

  • Admiral Paparo emphasized the need for the US to address issues like shipbuilding and labor shortages to keep up.

🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM
Five-Year Plan:
UK Troops in Ukraine

Britain is reportedly considering deploying troops to Ukraine for up to five years to help rebuild its military and deter future Russian aggression.

Military chiefs are discussing a phased withdrawal plan, but there’s still uncertainty about the mission’s format and goals.

The Deployment Plan

The UK and France are leading talks on a European-led force to support Ukraine.

  • The force would train and rebuild Ukraine’s military to prevent another Russian invasion.

  • Troops would withdraw in stages, with the final phase expected around the five-year mark.

Mixed Reactions

Not everyone is on board with the plan.

  • Some officials worry the coalition’s progress is too slow and unclear.

  • Sweden’s defense minister questioned the mission’s purpose: “Is it deterrence? Monitoring? Peacekeeping?”

US Involvement

The US has yet to commit to direct involvement.

  • Donald Trump’s peace talks have stalled, delaying decisions on troop deployment.

  • UK Defense Secretary John Healey emphasized the importance of American support for long-term peace.

The Bigger Picture

  • UK Intelligence suggests Putin could be ready for another invasion in as little as five years.

  • The coalition aims to secure peace and strengthen Ukraine’s ability to deter future attacks.