Borders: Closed.

Hi Global Recap readers,

All eyes are on President Trump and President Xi, who are expected to meet 🗓️ this Thursday in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC summit. Markets have rallied on hopes that the talks will yield a trade deal or at least a framework for one.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on the weekend that Washington and Beijing have reached a framework to hold off the 100% tariffs Trump recently threatened.

• Still, be careful with that word framework. These things have a habit of falling apart just as fast as they come together. (More frameworks below)

But of course, fingers crossed. 👇️

🇱🇹 LITHUANIA
Lithuania Closes
Belarus Border

Lithuania shut its border with Belarus after “constant violations” of its airspace by helium balloons. PM Inga Ruginiene framed it as a hybrid threat and vowed to shoot down the balloons.

• Action: Lithuania’s foreign ministry announced the closure on Monday, citing repeated airspace breaches by dozens of helium balloons entering from Belarus.

• Orders: Inga Ruginiene said the armed forces will take “all necessary measures” to shoot down balloons, further clarifying that the country is ready to take “even the most severe actions.”

• Belarus: Belarus sent a formal protest note, calling the closure a violation of citizens’ freedom of movement and urging dialogue in a post on X.

• Smuggling: But this isn't anything new. Earlier in October, authorities found small hot-air balloons carrying smuggled cigarettes in Lithuanian airspace.

🇯🇵🇺🇸 JAPAN & US
Rare Earths,
Critical Minerals Deal

In Tokyo, Donald Trump and Japan’s new PM Sanae Takaichi signed an agreement to lock down rare earths and critical minerals supply. They pitched it as the start of a “golden age” for the alliance amid tightening Chinese export controls.

• Scope: The deal sets a framework to jointly develop mining and processing.

• Strategy: Washington and Tokyo will coordinate economic policy and investment to build resilient supply chains after Beijing tightened exports on key inputs.

• Timing: Trump is on a week-long Asia tour and heads to South Korea to meet Xi Jinping for high-stakes talks in the middle of a bruising trade war.

• Trade: Expect follow-through on tariffs and purchases after her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba traded concessions for Japanese investments in the US and purchasing of more US soybeans and pickup trucks.

• Background: Takaichi is known to be a fan of Margaret Thatcher, hence her nickname, “Japan’s Iron Lady.” Due to her conservative leanings (such as her hardline stance against unfettered immigration) many expected her to get along well with President Trump in the lead-up to this deal.

🇨🇳 CHINA
China, ASEAN
Upgrade Pact

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) signed a 3.0 upgrade to their free trade agreement in Kuala Lumpur, aiming to deepen access in digital, green economy, and pharma as both sides try to deal with US tariffs.

• Partners: China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and Malaysia’s Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz inked the deal ahead of the 28th ASEAN–China Summit in Kuala Lumpur today.

• Numbers: ASEAN is China’s largest trading partner, with $771 billion in bilateral trade last year. The bloc’s collective GDP is about $3.8 trillion.

• Access: Beijing says the upgrade improves market access for agriculture, digital services, and pharmaceuticals, and reinforces commitments to free trade and multilateralism.

• Timing: Talks began in November 2022 and concluded in May 2025, shortly after Trump’s tariff escalation.

• Politics: Both sides sit inside RCEP, which covers roughly a third of the world’s population and GDP. China framed the deal against “protectionism,” with Premier Li Qiang urging a “high-standard regional free trade network.”

• Shift: This move is exactly what critics of Trump’s tariff-first strategy warned about.

  • It pushes countries to build trade routes that rely less on the United States.

  • As nations develop alternative systems to counter U.S.-centric networks, Washington’s “soft power” gradually erodes.

  • A common online rebuttal is, “We can just sanction them into compliance.” The flaw in that logic is that sanctions depend on other countries’ heavy reliance on US-controlled financial, logistical, and regulatory channels. As these networks diversify, the leverage of sanctions diminishes. While it may take a long time for others to chip away at American dominance, history suggests: never say never.

🇺🇦 UKRAINE
Drafting Ceasefire
Agreement

Ukraine and its allies will draft a ceasefire plan within 10 days after President Donald Trump proposed freezing the war at current frontlines. Zelenskyy is framing it as a blueprint designed to test Russian willingness to engage.

• Request: At the same time, Kyiv is pressing the US for Tomahawk missiles in order to increase battlefield leverage and accelerate pressure on Russia.

  • Putin’s call to Trump just hours before Zelenskyy’s White House visit two weeks ago show how powerful even the prospect of US Tomahawks in Ukraine can be.

  • Despite worries of escalation, equipping Kyiv with Tomahawks could help rebalance the asymmetry of the war, without them even being used. The mere threat of their deployment might be enough to push Putin toward negotiations (that's the hope anyway). As it stands, he has little incentive to stop stalling.

• Front: Ukraine reports fierce urban fighting in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, with Russian groups infiltrating the city, attempting to push north, and complicating logistics as Kyiv fortifies positions to hold the transport hub.

• Claim: Citing Ukrainian intelligence, Zelenskyy says Putin privately set an October 15 target to capture the entire Donbas, underscoring Moscow’s timeline-driven pressure in Donetsk and Luhansk.

• Missile: Russia successfully tested the nuclear-powered Burevestnik missiles last week, which Putin says can evade defenses.