Hi Global Recap readers,
President Trump warning the Iranian government, “You better not start shooting, because we’ll start shooting too.”
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What a week.
Last weekend, with financial markets closed, the U.S. successfully captured Nicolás Maduro in his own backyard.
Now Iran is burning, and social media is churning out unverified rumors about Khamenei's assassination and the President's resignation. If last weekend was any indication, don’t be surprised if something breaks before Monday.
Before we start, here’s what Iran looks like today. 👇🏼
🇮🇷 IRAN
Intensifying Protests:
Videos
Al-Rasool Mosque in Tehran, set aflame by protesters.
An Iranian protester allegedly making Molotov cocktails
Iranian women reportedly burning their hijabs in Tehran
🇬🇱 GREENLAND
Trump Threatens
Annexation Again
At the White House on Jan. 9, President Trump renewed his push to take Greenland through annexation, telling reporters that he is going to have it "the easy way" or "the hard way."
Why? He framed it as a race with Russia and China.
Moment. Speaking in Washington on Friday during a White House event with oil and gas executives, Trump said he was "going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not."
Pitch. Trump tied Greenland to his broader argument that the United States should dominate strategically important nearby territory before rivals do. "If we don’t do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland."
Ownership. Trump also brushed aside the idea that alliances and agreements are enough, arguing that control is the point.
Trump: "When we own it, we defend it. You don’t defend leases the same way. You have to own it."
He also dismissed Denmark’s claim as dating to "the fact they had a boat land there 500 years ago."
Thoughts
It’s worth thinking through what a possible military action would mean for NATO.
On paper, that’s an Article 5 problem: an attack on one is treated as an attack on all. However, in reality, it also gives everyone wiggle room—each ally has the freedom to take "such action as it deems necessary."
In practice, NATO’s operational capacity is heavily dependent on the United States, including U.S. funding, command-and-control enablers, and troop presence across EU-based installations.
That dependence cuts both ways: a direct NATO–U.S. rupture would immediately turn shared basing, logistics, and force posture across Europe into a hostile liability, putting the E.U. at risk within its own borders.
Structurally speaking, the situation seems constrained by practicalities. Absent clear indicators like a significant drawdown or relocation of U.S. forces from E.U. bases, a U.S.-initiated military action in this context remains unlikely (in my view, of course).
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA
U.S. Seizes Fifth Tanker
U.S. forces boarded the oil tanker Olina before dawn Friday in the Caribbean, the fifth ship taken in a tightening blockade aimed at choking and rerouting Venezuelan oil flows.
Dawn. Marines and Navy sailors launched from the USS Gerald R. Ford hit the Olina in the predawn hours, with U.S. Southern Command declared, "there is no safe haven for criminals" as it announced the seizure.
Footage. Homeland Security Secretary Noem and the military posted unclassified video showing a helicopter landing on the tanker and personnel moving across the deck. At one point, the footage shows what appears to be an explosive device tossed in front of a door leading inside.
Trail. On paper, the Olina has baggage.
U.S. records say it was sanctioned for moving Russian oil under its prior name, Minerva M, and it has cycled through flags, including a period flagged in Panama and a current claim to Timor-Leste that shipping registries list as a false flag.
Trackers also say it went dark, with its location beacon shut off after its last transmission in November north of Venezuela.
Math. TankerTrackers.com says at least 16 tankers slipped out from Venezuela despite a U.S. quarantine effort, and it estimates the Olina carried about 707,000 barrels, valued at more than $42 million at roughly $60 a barrel.
Response. Trump said the seizure was coordinated with Venezuela’s "Interim Authorities," without explaining what that meant in practice. Venezuela’s government, meanwhile, said it was working with U.S. authorities to bring the ship back, arguing it sailed without payment or authorization and calling it a "first successful joint operation" as the tanker headed toward Venezuelan waters.
📌 Context: The U.S. has been intercepting sanctioned tankers tied to Venezuela as part of a broader effort to control where Venezuelan oil goes and who gets paid, following the U.S. removal of "President" Maduro.
🇰🇵🇰🇷 NORTH & SOUTH KOREA
Drone Spat
Reignites Border
Images released on Saturday that shows the wreckage of a drone that North Korea claims originated from South Korea
North Korea says South Korea flew drones into its airspace and vows consequences for the alleged incursion.
South Korea flatly denies it but says the claim is being investigated.
Claim. On Saturday (local time), North Korea’s military accused South Korea of sending drones across the border this week, calling it a sovereignty violation and warning the South would "pay a dear price" for what it described as "unpardonable hysteria."
Hardware. North Korea’s General Staff said its forces used electronic warfare on Sunday to bring down a South Korean drone over a North Korean border town.
It said the drone carried two cameras and video that captured "unspecified areas."
It also alleged a separate drone entered North Korean airspace on Sept. 27 before crashing after North Korea's alleged "electronic strikes."
Denial. South Korea’s Defense Ministry said it did not operate drones on the dates North Korea cited, and South Korean President Lee ordered a thorough investigation of the North’s claim.
This clash isn't convenient for Lee, who is trying to reopen channels with Pyongyang despite North Korea repeatedly brushing him off.
For this effort, Lee and his party have at times been derided by hardline conservative critics as “commies” or “communist sympathizers.”
📌 Context: Drone accusations have become a recurring, low-cost way for both sides to escalate without firing artillery.
» North Korea claimed in October 2024 that South Korean drones flew over Pyongyang to drop propaganda leaflets.
» South Korea also accused the North of drone incursions, including a December 2022 episode that prompted warning shots, fighter jet scrambles, and surveillance flights.
