Cannon Fodders

Hi Global Recap readers,

Once again, I found myself waking up to see WWIII trending on platform X.

Given the recent news about countries subtly positioning themselves for a possible conflict, this doesn’t come as much of a shock.

Do you remember the time when even the thought of deploying military personnel to Ukraine was considered off-limits?

It appears that this perspective has been gradually softening lately.

🇺🇦 Ukraine
Biden Administration Eyes Military Contractors in Ukraine

The Biden administration is considering lifting a ban on American military contractors working in Ukraine.

This move aims to help Ukraine maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems, enhancing its defense against Russia. The policy change is still under development and awaits President Biden's final approval.

🔘 Policy Shift: The administration's potential policy change would allow American military contractors to operate in Ukraine for the first time since Russia's invasion in 2022.

• This shift aims to expedite the maintenance and repair of critical weapons systems used by the Ukrainian military.

• The policy is expected to be implemented this year, pending final approval.

🔘 Strategic Support: The deployment of contractors is intended to be limited and focused.

• Estimates suggest a few dozen to a couple of hundred contractors may be involved at any given time.

• The goal is to provide targeted support without replicating the extensive presence seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Arguments FOR

🔘 Maintenance and Repair: One of the primary reasons for lifting the ban is to expedite the maintenance and repair of US-provided weapons systems.

• Ukraine relies heavily on these systems, and having American contractors on the ground would ensure they remain operational.

• This move is seen as crucial for the upkeep of advanced equipment like the F-16 fighter jets, which are set to be delivered to Ukraine later this year.

🔘 Strategic Support: Allowing contractors would provide targeted and strategic support without involving US troops directly in combat.

• This approach aims to avoid the extensive presence seen in past conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, focusing instead on specific technical and logistical support.

🔘 National Security: Supporting Ukraine is viewed as having significant national security implications for the US.

• Retired Army officer Alex Vindman and other experts argue that aiding Ukraine strengthens an important ally and counters Russian aggression.

Arguments AGAINST

🔘 Escalation Risk: One of the main arguments against lifting the ban is the potential for escalation of the conflict.

• There are concerns that deploying American contractors could be seen as direct US involvement in the war, potentially provoking a stronger Russian response.

• Deploying contractors to an active war zone raises concerns about their safety and the potential for American casualties.

🔘 Political Sensitivity: The presence of American contractors in Ukraine could be politically sensitive both domestically and internationally.

• There's also the risk of it being used for propaganda purposes by Russia, as seen in the case of the Azov Brigade, where Russia accused the US of supporting neo-Nazis.

🇰🇵 North Korea
Pyongyang’s War Involvement

🔘 Treaty: During Russian President Putin’s state visit to North Korea on June 19, he signed a new defense agreement with North Korea. It promises mutual military support if either nation is attacked.

• This doesn’t explicitly involve the Ukraine war, but it raises questions about North Korea’s future actions.

• However, as part of the deal, North Korean engineers are set to join Russian forces as soon as next month.

🔘 Assistance: North Korea has been aiding Russia since 2023, but it’s the potential troop deployment that’s raising eyebrows.

• On June 25, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder highlighted the risks for North Korean forces if sent to Ukraine, labeling them as potential “cannon fodder” in an “illegal war.”

• The country has supplied weapons and munitions to Russia, including ballistic missiles reportedly used against Ukraine.

🔘 Future: If sending troops to Ukraine becomes the norm among nations of different factions, we may have to grapple with the fact that a new global war is finally upon us.

🇺🇸 United States
Assange Pleads Guilty

🔘 Plea Deal: Assange has pleaded guilty to a single felony charge related to publishing classified US military documents.

🔘 Strategic Move: Choosing Saipan over the US mainland isn’t random; it’s closer to his native Australia and avoids setting foot on the mainland.

• Saipan is a remote US commonwealth in the Western Pacific.

• Assange reportedly spent $500,000 for this chartered flight, which his wife plans to cover by launching a fundraising campaign.

• He’s now heading back to Australia, possibly to seek a pardon, but the guilty plea under the Espionage Act raises alarms for journalists worldwide.

🔘 Document Leak: Let’s not forget what started it all—the largest security breach in US military history.

• In 2010, Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks, a non-profit organization dedicated to publishing leaked documents, unveiled a vast collection of classified information. This disclosure illuminated the reality of civilian deaths, covert operations, and unethical behavior in Iraq and Afghanistan.

• The disclosure resulted in the incarceration of Chelsea Manning, a former US Army soldier and whistleblower. Although her sentence was eventually commuted, it also resulted in Julian Assange seeking asylum at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London for seven years, before he was ultimately apprehended.

• His extradition to the US faced skepticism from British judges concerned about his potential treatment by the American justice system.

🔘 Outcome: The resolution, which includes Assange’s agreement to destroy certain information, allows both parties to claim victory.

• However, many online are still skeptical of the deal. Why is the US letting him go seemingly so easily? Is there more to the story?

🇺🇦 Ukraine
EU Membership Talks Begin

Ukraine has officially started membership talks with the European Union, marking a significant milestone in its journey towards European integration. This process, which could take years, represents a major step forward for Ukraine despite ongoing Russian opposition.

🔘 Negotiations: The accession negotiations kicked off during an intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg on Tuesday.

• Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal called it "the beginning of a new chapter" in Ukraine-EU relations.

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy celebrated the moment, stating, "Generations of our people are realizing their European dream".

🔘 Challenges: The path to EU membership is complex and time-consuming.

• Ukraine must align its laws and standards with EU policy on various issues, including goods movement, environment, and security.

• All 27 EU member countries must unanimously agree to admit a new member, with Hungary expressing skepticism about Ukraine's readiness.

🔘 Implications: Ukraine's potential EU membership could significantly impact the bloc's dynamics.

• If admitted, Ukraine would become the EU's largest member by territory, surpassing France.

• As a top grain producer, Ukraine's membership would also affect EU agricultural policy.

• The country aims for membership by 2030 but must first complete numerous institutional and legal reforms.

🇰🇪 Kenya
Protestors Burn Parliament

In Nairobi, the air is thick with tension and tear gas as Kenyans clash with police over a tax bill that’s stirring up economic fears.

🔘 Violence: The peaceful protests against tax increases have taken a dark turn. What started as a collective stand by Kenyans, especially the younger generation, has escalated into chaos and bloodshed.

• The death toll has tragically risen to at least 13, with the main doctors’ association confirming the numbers.

• Demonstrators, pushed to the brink, have set parts of the parliament building on fire.

🔘 Government’s Stance: In response, President William Ruto has called in the military, marking a severe shift in the government’s approach to the unrest.

• He labeled some protesters as “criminals” and vowed that such actions wouldn’t go unpunished.

🔘 Economic Strain: At the heart of the protests is a financial crisis. Kenya’s government is grappling with a massive debt, and the proposed tax hikes are their solution to bridge the budget gap.

• The country’s debt stands at a staggering 10 trillion shillings ($78 billion), about 70% of its GDP.

• The public’s fierce opposition to the tax proposals has caught the government off guard, leading to the current state of unrest.

• President Ruto’s luxury lifestyle contrasts sharply with his poverty reduction pledges, fueling the fire of dissent.

  • For instance, he faced allegations of hiring a Boeing 737-700 VIP plane for his US visit at a cost of $1.5 million. Yet, he asserts the expense was only $73,000, covered with assistance from “some friends” of the nation.