Hi Global Recap readers,
There are normal cartel problems, and then there is one of your most important members realizing it may be stronger outside the cartel than inside it.
That’s our first story today. 👇🏼
👀 At a Glance
This week…
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Iran FM seeks Putin's backing
Hormuz talks stall over enrichment
🇲🇱🇷🇺 MALI & RUSSIA
Mali attacks kill defense minister
Russian-backed forces withdraw from Kidal
🇮🇱🇱🇧 ISRAEL & LEBANON
Israel-Lebanon talks trigger Hezbollah backlash
Hezbollah allegedly deploys suicide bombers
🌐 OTHERS
Trump assassination suspect charged
China blocks Meta's Manus deal
Ukraine summons Israel over stolen grain
King Charles III's state visit to the US (April 27-30)
🇦🇪🇸🇦 UAE & OPEC
Abu Dhabi Walks Out
The UAE abruptly announced that it's leaving OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, stripping the oil cartel of one of its biggest Gulf producers.
However, this doesn't mean Emirati oil suddenly floods the market.
Much of the Gulf's export system is still jammed up
Shipping through Hormuz remains the hard limit
The bigger shift is political control. Abu Dhabi has spent years building up production capacity while growing tired of OPEC quotas. Leaving gives the UAE more freedom to chase buyers in China, India, and elsewhere, and to present itself as a producer with its own lane instead of moving inside Riyadh's frame.
📌 Context. OPEC+ is the expanded oil cartel: OPEC plus major outside producers led by Russia, coordinating production to influence global oil prices.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
State of Collapse
Trump says Iran told the US that it is in a "state of collapse" and wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened as soon as possible while it sorts out its leadership crisis.
Iran has not admitted to this (of course), so this is still being interpreted as Trump putting pressure on Tehran.
But here's what we know so far:
Iran's exports are estimated to be down roughly 70%,
unused crude storage is reported to have only 12 to 22 days left, and
another forced output cut could arrive by mid-May if barrels cannot move.
🇬🇧🇮🇷 UK & IRAN
This Might Not
Be Just Another Bombing
The New IRA (New Irish Republican Army) has now claimed responsibility for a car bomb outside Dunmurry police station near Belfast.
What Happened:
A car bomb exploded outside the police station on Saturday night.
Police said no one was physically injured.
A 66-year-old man was arrested under terrorism laws.
The New IRA reportedly said it intended to kill officers leaving the station and warned it could target officers at home.
Iranian Sleeper Cell?
The New IRA
Now, that does not necessarily prove Tehran ordered this particular bombing.
However, this is making many critics to question whether Iran may be involved in this (whether directly or indirectly).
Their alleged connection certainly does make the attack land a bit differently though—especially when Iran is under extreme pressure and Western security officials are already watching for proxy or sympathetic activity abroad.
On top of that, Iran’s embassy in London reportedly used its official Telegram channel to push UK-based Iranians to sign up for a “Jan Fada” (literally, “sacrificing life”) initiative.
Critics read it as barely coded “martyr recruitment” messaging.
The embassy denied that the program promotes hostility, but security analysts believe it could mobilize regime supporters in Britain.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US & CHINA
More Chip Choke
The US Commerce Department has ordered chip-equipment companies to halt some tool and material shipments to Hua Hong, China's second-largest chipmaker, targeting facilities US officials believe could help produce China's most advanced chips.
What we know:
The letters appear to have reached suppliers including Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA, and also aim at Hua Hong's Huali Microelectronics arm.
The US is going after the machines, not just the chips.
China can still work around some chip bans through stockpiles, redesigns, third countries, or domestic substitutes, but replacing the most specialized production tools is slower and harder.
📌 Context. Huali was already preparing a 7nm process in Shanghai, which would put another Chinese player near the advanced-node line now dominated domestically by SMIC. Washington is trying to stop that ladder before it reaches AI-grade capacity.
🇺🇦🇷🇺 UKRAINE & RUSSIA
Tuapse Burns Again
Ukraine hit Russia's Tuapse oil refinery for the third time this month, setting off a huge fire, forcing evacuations near the Black Sea port, and drawing more than 300 emergency workers into the response.
Tuapse is part of Russia's Black Sea energy system, with refining and export links that help keep wartime revenue moving.
📌 Context. Meanwhile, Ukraine says it shot down more than 33,000 Russian drones in March alone, a monthly record.
