Ceasefire or Countdown?

Hi Global Recap readers,

Just like we thought, the US didn’t hold out for the full two weeks (Trump’s so-called deadline for deciding on a strike against Iran). Instead, they pulled the trigger over the weekend, timing it when the markets were closed, and launched precision airstrikes on several Iranian targets.

• The region seems to have cooled off after a surprise ceasefire announcement just hours ago.

• But is this really peace, or just the calm before a bigger war?

Let’s break down the facts and throw in a tinfoil hat theory while we’re at it.👇

🌐 WORLD
Fast Scroll News

🇨🇳 China Rolls Out Net ID. Starting mid-July, China is launching a national internet ID system that centralizes logins across websites and apps. Officials claim it’s “voluntary” and protects data, but critics say it’s a blueprint for digital authoritarianism that can silence dissent in real time. Experts warn it’ll be nearly impossible to stay off the grid once the system is baked into major apps.

• UC Berkeley’s Xiao Qiang calls it “an infrastructure of digital totalitarianism.”

• China touts it as a "bullet-proof vest" for personal data.

• More than 6 million people have already signed up.

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🇸🇾 ISIS Hits Damascus Church. A gunman walked into the Greek Orthodox Church of the Prophet Elias in Damascus Sunday evening, opened fire during worship, then detonated a suicide vest, killing at least 25 and injuring 63. It’s the deadliest ISIS attack in the Syrian capital since Bashar al-Assad was ousted in December. A priest nearby said they arrived to find “the doorway filled with body parts.”

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🇺🇦 Russia Pounds Kyiv Again. Russia launched 352 drones and 16 missiles at Ukraine overnight (most aimed at Kyiv), killing at least 7 and injuring 28, according to the city’s mayor. The worst hit was a residential block in Shevchenkivskyi, where falling debris also damaged 25 other sites. Ukraine says it intercepted most of the barrage but not all. President Zelenskyy called it a “cynical strike” and said North Korean ballistic missiles were involved.

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🇮🇱 Israel Threatens Top General. An audio recording and transcript just dropped via The Washington Post, capturing an Israeli intel officer calling a senior Iranian general on June 13 with a chilling warning: “You have 12 hours to escape… you’re on our list.” The officer demanded that the general film a video denouncing the regime—or face assassination. This was part of a broader intimidation campaign reportedly aimed at more than 20 top Iranian officials.

• Why is June 13 significant? It's the same day Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," a strike that hit Iranian nuclear and military sites and killed high-profile figures like IRGC commander Hossein Salami and nuclear physicist Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani.

• Oh, and one more: The general in the call? He didn’t run. He’s apparently still in Iran.

Click for more

🇮🇷 IRAN & 🇮🇱 ISRAEL
Trump Brokers
Ceasefire Deal

Trump just announced that Israel and Iran are hitting pause on their "12-day war."

• Supporters are hailing it as a major win for Trump’s “peace through strength” approach—some even mocking voices like Tucker Carlson for warning that going to war with Iran would cost thousands of American lives.

• But critics aren’t sold. They argue it’s way too early to call this a real ceasefire. For all they know, it’s just a breather for Iran before the next round kicks off.

The Ceasefire

It started with a surprise announcement: Trump declared a “complete and total” ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

• Trump announced the ceasefire personally online, declaring a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” to begin in phases.

• Iran starts first, Israel follows 12 hours later, with an “Official END” 24 hours in. But what if something happens during this time?

• Trump supposedly brokered the deal via phone calls with Netanyahu and Qatar’s emir.

  • Qatar's PM reportedly sealed the deal with Iranian officials over the phone.

  • Trump told Qatar’s emir that Israel was also on board, closing the loop.

• A senior Iranian official confirmed that it had agreed to the ceasefire.

How We Got Here

The ceasefire comes right after a major US airstrike targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

• Over the weekend, seven B-2 bombers launched from Missouri and hit the Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan sites.

  • 14 GBU-57 bunker-busters hit Fordo and Natanz in under 30 minutes.

  • Despite critics blasting Trump for making a snap decision to strike Iran, these bombs were specifically designed a decade ago to punch through Iran’s most fortified nuclear facilities.

  • To keep Iran guessing, some of the bombers even flew fake-out routes as decoys.

  • Click here to check out detailed graphics showing how these bunker-busters actually work (it's quite interesting).

• Iran fired back with a missile strike on the Al Udeid Air Base (a US air base) in Qatar, but it was more show than blow.

  • Iran gave Qatar a heads-up before the missiles landed, so there were no casualties or injuries reported.

  • Many view this as a “symbolic attack” for internal propaganda and a show of force.

Signs of Unease

Despite the ceasefire deal, the region isn’t exactly calm.

• Israel warned Tehran residents to evacuate twice overnight.

• Sirens blared in the Golan Heights amid fears of incoming aircraft.

• Most of Tehran’s 10 million residents have already fled after days of bombing.

Khamenei

Right before Trump announced the ceasefire, Iran’s Supreme Leader posted this on X, leaving people asking why he would post something like that if Iran had just agreed to a truce?

• Some are speculating he’s out of the loop, either because he’s in hiding or maybe even been quietly removed from power.

• Others think he was just weighing in on Iran’s retaliatory strike against the US base in Qatar, not necessarily rejecting the ceasefire itself.

History: Past Ceasefire

Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in late 2024. But barely 24 hours in, both sides were already accusing each other of breaking the deal.

• So now, there are many who are drawing parallels to this past deal. Many believe that Israel, which clearly has the upper hand now, will not back off simply because Iran appears to be backing down.

• Plenty of people are also drawing comparisons to Trump’s 2020 strike that killed Iran’s top general, Qasem Soleimani.

  • Back then, Iran responded with missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, but stopped short of launching a full-scale regional war, despite all the doomsday predictions at the time.

  • The retaliatory operation was named “Operation Martyr Soleimani,” and an article from that time sounds a lot like today’s retaliation. 👇️ 

So, What's Next?

Here are some speculations:

• Option one: Both Iran and Israel stick to the ceasefire.

• Option two: Iran doesn’t hit Israel directly (because, geographically, it can’t without missiles). Instead, it uses proxies or activates sleeper cells to target Israeli or US interests.

And that’s where things get murky. Some believe a false flag operation could be staged to drag the US and Israel deeper into conflict, aiming to finish off the Iranian regime once and for all.

But here’s the thing: neither Iran nor Trump can really afford a full-blown war. Trump’s base includes a strong anti-war bloc, and Iran is already stretched thin. That’s why many think escalation is unlikely, unless Israel decides to push forward with a false flag, as some conspiracy theorists are now claiming.

Also: After the US weekend strike, Russia’s former President Dmitry Medvedev warned that Iran’s allies are ready to supply nuclear warheads. So even if Iran’s uranium enrichment isn’t a concern right now, we can’t rule out other countries stepping in to provide what Iran needs. Will this be used as a justification for future attacks against Iran?

🇳🇱 NETHERLANDS
Trump’s Return,
Big Demands

US President Trump is set to attend the NATO summit (June 24-25) in the Netherlands. This is Trump's first summit since reclaiming the White House in January.

Here's what's expected:

• Spending raise

• Less talk of Ukraine's NATO membership

• Rising threats from Iran and Russia

5% Defense Push

Trump famously floated the idea of raising defense spending up to 5% of GDP.

• Expected Outcome: NATO may raise the target from 2% of GDP to 3.5 - 5%, with Spain already negotiating down to 2.1%.

• Trump’s argument: the US is tired of subsidizing Europe’s defense.

• NATO chief Rutte: supports the hike, citing “Europe’s greatest threat since World War II.”

• France’s President Macron: pushing for the EU to lean less on the US (and not so subtly positioning France to lead the charge).

Ukraine Takes a Backseat

Also, don’t expect wall-to-wall Ukraine talk like in summits past.

• Trump’s stance: Kyiv shouldn’t join NATO, and US troop levels in Europe are negotiable.

• NATO still supports Ukraine, but leaders are trying not to “rock the boat” with Trump.

• Zelenskyy is expected to attend some activities (e.g., the opening dinner), but hasn’t confirmed.