Ceasefire: Reached

Hi Global Recap readers,

As predicted, mere days before Trump’s inauguration, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire.

• However, we’ve all been duped before by previous attempts, which have been short-lived due to mistrust and violations.

• While many are hopeful, I remain cautious about calling this a completely successful done-deal.

Although, the difference this time is the presence of a new US president. So we’ll see how this unfolds. (Eyes on Iran going forward.) 👇️ 

🇮🇱🇵🇸 ISRAEL & HAMAS
Ceasefire: Reached

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza after 15 months of conflict that impacted not only them but also governments and citizens worldwide.

This deal, set to take effect on Sunday, includes the release of hostages and a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces. Will this now calm both the pro-Israel and “Free Palestine” crowds?

Ceasefire Agreement

• The initial phase includes a six-week ceasefire and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces.

• Hostages held by Hamas will be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners in Israel.

Humanitarian Aid

• US President Joe Biden emphasized the importance of halting the fighting and providing aid to Palestinian civilians.

• The UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross are preparing to scale up their aid operations.

Reactions

The announcement of the ceasefire has sparked reactions from both sides.

• In Gaza, Palestinians celebrated in the streets, expressing joy and relief.

• In Tel Aviv, families of Israeli hostages rejoiced at the news.

• However, many also criticize the deal, viewing it as “surrendering” to Hamas terrorists and giving them time to regroup for future attacks on Israel. They argue this deal achieves nothing substantial, only perpetuating a cycle of violence.

• President Trump appears thrilled with the deal, seeing it as a springboard to expand the Abraham Accords, which aimed to normalize Israel’s relations with several Arab countries during his first term.

Political Challenges

The deal faces political hurdles before it can be fully implemented.

• Israel's security cabinet and government must approve the agreement.

• Some in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition oppose the deal, even claiming that Trump’s “Hell to pay” rhetoric forced both sides into an agreement they didn’t want ahead of his inauguration.

Future Prospects

The ceasefire could defuse regional tensions and pave the way for future negotiations.

• The deal aims to halt fighting in Gaza and reduce tensions across the Middle East.

• The second phase of the deal will include the release of all remaining hostages and a permanent ceasefire.

🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA
Australian POW
Possibly Killed

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pledged to take the “strongest possible action” if Russia has harmed an Australian national captured while fighting for Ukraine.

Jenkins’ Capture

Jenkins was captured by Russian forces last month, and a video of him being questioned surfaced.

• The footage showed Jenkins with his hands tightly bound, struggling to understand questions in Russian.

• He identified himself as “a soldier” and mentioned being a teacher in China and a student in Australia.

Jenkins’ Background

Jenkins has an interesting background.

• He is originally from Melbourne.

• He’s worked as a university lecturer in Tianjin, China, since 2017.

• He joined an international brigade among the Ukrainian ranks.

Albanese’s Response

• The Australian government is “seeking urgent clarification” on the situation.

• Albanese emphasized that any harm to Jenkins would be “absolutely reprehensible.”

Russia’s Response

• Russia’s embassy in Australia referred to a statement by Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

• Zakharova blamed Australia for supporting Ukraine, and said the ministry was “monitoring the situation together with the relevant agencies.”

Australia’s Support for Ukraine

Australia has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since the war began in February 2022.

• The country has provided close to $1 billion in assistance to Kyiv.

• Australia’s military has also been involved in training Ukraine’s armed forces.

🇵🇱 POLAND
Russia’s Air Terrorism

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused Russia of plotting global sabotage, including “acts of terrorism” against airlines.

Tusk’s Accusation

• He mentioned that these acts were not just against Poland but targeted airlines worldwide.

• The Kremlin, as expected, dismissed these claims.

Western Concerns

Western officials have long suspected Russia’s hand in various sabotage plots.

In July 2024:

• Incendiary devices were found in packages on cargo planes headed to North America.

• Incidents included a fire ignition at a courier hub in Germany and another in an English warehouse last year.

Azerbaijan Incident

It’s not just Poland, however. Azerbaijan also accused Russia of shooting down an Azerbaijani airliner in Kazakhstan.

• The recent crash on December 25 killed 38 people.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized but didn’t admit responsibility.

Hybrid Warfare

Poland’s pro-EU government claims Russia is waging hybrid war against the West.

• Acts of sabotage and arson busted in Poland last year were allegedly funded by Moscow.

• Poland closed one of three Russian consulates in response.

Migration Crisis

What’s another tactic both Russia and its ally Belarus is accused of using to sow chaos? Manufacturing a migration crisis on the EU’s eastern border to create division and turmoil within the EU.

🇺🇦 UKRAINE
NATO Jets Scrambled

NATO jets were scrambled as Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure near the Polish border.

Poland’s Response

Poland deployed fighter jets to protect its airspace from potential Russian “mistakes” or deliberate actions.

• Russian strikes targeted western Ukraine near the Polish border.

• Poland’s military activated all available forces and resources.

• Air defense and radar systems were put on the highest state of readiness.

Scale of the Attack

Russia fired 117 missiles and drones at Ukraine’s energy facilities.

• 77 of these were shot down by Ukraine’s air force.

• Critical infrastructure sites in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions were damaged.

Russia’s Arsenal

Russia used a variety of missiles and drones in the attack.

• Iskander ballistic missile launched from Belgorod region.

• Kalibr missiles fired from the Black Sea.

• Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles from Volgograd region.

• Shahed attack drones and decoys from Bryansk, Millerovo, Oryol, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk.

Russia’s Justification

So, why did Russia hit Ukraine so hard? It claimed the target was Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.

• The Russian defense ministry stated the attack was in response to a Ukrainian bombardment of Russia.

• Moscow vowed to respond to future Ukrainian attacks.

Energy Infrastructure

Its target appeared to be Ukraine’s energy grid, which makes sense, as hitting it would have the greatest impact on civilians, especially with the harsh winter weather.

• Emergency power outages were reported in six regions.

Zelenskyy’s Response

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack.

• He called for strengthening Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.

• Zelensky urged partners to give Ukraine licenses to produce air defense systems and missiles.