Election won from jail

Hi Global Recap readers,

This is next-level popularity.

Remember former Philippine President Duterte?

• Back in 2016, he was hailed as the tough-on-crime leader the country needed—often dubbed the “Philippine Trump.”

• Now, at 80, he’s behind bars on ICC charges. And yet, from his jail cell, he just won a mayoral election.

Love him or hate him, winning an election from prison is wild.

👉🏻 Before we dive into that, let’s talk about the EU’s last-minute ultimatum—just hours to respond.

🇪🇺 EUROPE
EU Demands Ceasefire Now

European leaders have delivered a hard ultimatum to Russia amid escalating tensions in Ukraine. With only 12 hours on the clock, the EU warns that non-compliance with an unconditional ceasefire will trigger a swift round of stricter sanctions.

EU Ultimatum

European officials are pushing for an unconditional ceasefire, with new sanctions ready if Russia doesn’t comply before “day’s end.”

• Stefan Kornelius noted, "The clock is ticking—we still have 12 hours until the end of this day."

• The demand comes as part of a concentrated effort to force a pause in the conflict.

Kremlin Reply

Judging by how Russia’s been acting over the past few years, you can probably guess how it responded: it quickly rejected the ultimatum and made it clear it won’t be pushed around.

• Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov made Russia’s position clear, saying, “The language of ultimatums is unacceptable—you can’t talk to Russia that way.”

Diplomatic Trials

Amid heightened tensions, Ukraine and its allies are still testing every diplomatic angle, inviting direct talks.

• President Zelenskyy challenged Putin to meet in Turkey on May 15.

• After Putin offered direct talks without a ceasefire, President Trump urged, "Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY," stressing the urgency.

• An earlier proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, supported by Ukraine and the US, was turned down, leaving the ball in Moscow’s court.

Context: Last Time They Talked

Negotiators met in Belarus on February 28, 2022, just four days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

• They continued discussions through video calls, then met in Istanbul on March 29.

• By mid-April, everything fell apart.

🇺🇦 UKRAINE

Ukraine proposed becoming a permanently neutral, non-aligned state with no foreign troops—a move that would bar NATO membership but leave the door open for the EU.

• In exchange, Ukraine wanted security guarantees from major global players, including Russia, the US, and China.

🇷🇺 RUSSIA

Russia demanded Ukraine drastically cut its military, limiting its army to 85,000 troops and capping missile range at 24 miles (40 km). Ukraine wanted to keep 250,000 troops and a more extensive arsenal.

• Moscow also pushed Ukraine to recognize Russian as an official state language, a demand Kyiv flatly rejected.

• Talks over Crimea’s status were set to last 10–15 years, a point that was never resolved.

🪖 Why It Fell Apart

By April 2022, Ukraine had pushed Russian troops out of Kyiv. With a boost from Western weapons and tough sanctions on Moscow, Kyiv grew more confident and even less inclined to back down.

• Reports of Russian war crimes—ranging from child abductions and sexual violence to the use of banned weapons—only hardened Ukraine’s stance against making concessions, despite Moscow’s denials.

• Military victories gave Ukraine leverage to demand better terms—but Russia wasn’t willing to budge.

🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES
Duterte Wins Election
From Jail

Despite being locked up in The Hague, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte just won a mayoral election.

So what now?

Definite Outcome

Duterte’s victory comes with a 405,000-vote lead over a competitor who managed only 49,000 votes, even with just over 60% of the returns counted.

• This is according to an unofficial tally of partial results. Yet, with the vote lead.

• This shows a clear signal of deep-rooted support in his Davao stronghold.

Jailed But Unbowed

He is currently being held in a Dutch jail on charges related to his controversial “war on drugs,” which allegedly involved the arrest and execution of suspected criminals without due process.

• He was arrested in March by the Philippine National Police and Interpol, acting on an International Criminal Court warrant.

• A video message confirmed he would take responsibility for his policies.

• They're currently figuring out with both his ICC and Filipino lawyers how he'll be sworn in to officially take on his role as mayor.

Context

Duterte launched his infamous “war on drugs” shortly after taking office as President of the Philippines in 2016, staying true to his campaign’s tough-on-crime stance. He vowed to eradicate illegal drug use and trafficking by granting law enforcement sweeping authority to crack down on suspects.

• It involved operation “Oplan Tokhang,” which involved house-to-house visits where police would “knock and plead” for suspects to surrender.

• Supporters claim the crackdown significantly reduced crime rates, restored public order in drug-infested communities, and demonstrated strong political will.

• Critics argue that the campaign resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings, disproportionately targeted the poor, and bypassed legal safeguards.

• Official government figures cite over 6,000 deaths in police operations, while independent estimates suggest the actual toll could be several times higher.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
US-China Tariff Truce:
Win Or Loss?

The world’s two biggest economies took a breather as they rolled back tariffs—at least for now.

Here’s where things stand:

• US tariffs on China: 145% → 30%.

• China’s tariffs on the US: 125% → 10%.

But don’t get too comfortable—it’s just a 90-day truce while the two sides head back to the negotiating table.

Leadership Voices

The temporary rollback brings tariffs close to where they were before things spiraled. So, why the sudden backdown? US officials said that the aim isn’t to “win” but to steer away from a full‑scale trade showdown.

• President Trump said, “We’re not looking to hurt China,” signaling a more measured tone heading into future negotiations. This is vastly different from the harsh rhetoric he used before April’s 90-day pause on all retaliatory tariffs (excluding China).

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stressed a mutual interest, saying, “We concluded that we have a shared interest.”

Economic Effects

The temporary deal comes as businesses and consumers are feeling the pinch from high tariffs.

• Companies: American companies had hit pause on orders as uncertainty spiked among buyers.

• Stocks: Global markets saw a positive reaction, with the S&P 500 posting significant gains. However, as of now, the Hang Seng is slipping, erasing all of today’s earlier gains.

• Meanwhile, the bond market—often considered the more critical one—responded with a jump in yields. Just a reminder: yields go up when investors unload government debt.

Negotiation Onward

This brief truce sets the stage for deeper discussions on longstanding trade imbalances and other issues like the fentanyl crisis.

• Formal talks are expected to continue, with trade representatives from both sides—like Jamieson Greer from the US and He Lifeng for China—taking center stage.

• The agreement, while temporary, offers a glimpse into a more collaborative approach, even as lingering challenges remain.

Other Reactions

On social media, supporters and critics of Trump are butting heads.

• Supporters are saying both sides bringing the tariff rates down is a massive win for the Trump admin.

• Critics are saying that this is a major flip-flopping by the Trump admin, showing that they do not have the support of the markets or the economic leverage to sustain extremely high tariff rates.

🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM
Russian Spy Ring
Jailed in UK

A UK court sentenced six Bulgarians tied to a Russian espionage cell. An investigation stretching across Europe found hidden tools, coded chats, and a tangled love triangle.

Court Verdict

At London’s Old Bailey, the judge handed down hefty jail terms.

• Six operatives received sentences ranging from roughly six to over 10 years.

• Key figures included Orlin Roussev, nicknamed “Jackie Chan,” and Biser Dzhambazov, known as “Mad Max.”

Hidden Tactics

• Hundreds of espionage devices were found at Roussev’s run-down guesthouse.

• Gadgets were hidden inside men’s ties, a Coke bottle, and even a Minions toy.

• Fake passports helped the network skirt borders and cloak identities.

Secret Chats

Telegram messages from as early as August 2020 revealed a pattern of covert activity. What began as scattered conversations eventually formed a clear record of illegal spy operations.

• In one message, Roussev declared, “If you are serious about it, I have the resources to kidnap, drug him, and lock him up in a secure cave.”

Tangled Relationships

Amid the covert operations, personal relationships complicated the situation further. A tangled love triangle surfaced, adding personal emotions to an already messy and cold world of spying.

• Defense counsel noted that Vanya Gaberova (the woman in the photo above) was “controlled, coerced into this conspiracy by Mr. Dzhambazov.”

• Dzhambazov’s personal ties with another operative further complicated the plot.

Cross-Border Operation

Spanning several nations, the spy network’s reach stretched far beyond the UK.

• The cell operated across the UK, Austria, Spain, Germany, and Montenegro.

• Negotiations involved substantial sums, with figures reaching up to 1 million euros.

• Alleged Russian agent Jan Marsalek, a wanted Austrian businessman, acted as a key intermediary.

Further Details

• The network is reckoned as one of the most complex uncovered on British soil.

• Notorious investigative journalist Christo Grozev was among those targeted by the cell.