"Everything's Fine Guys"

Hi Global Recap readers,

There’s nothing like starting the week with more signs of a looming global crisis:

• A NATO official is now cautioning EU businesses to prepare for war—just in case.

• The UK and France are discussing sending troops to Ukraine.

• Meanwhile, Iranian officials in the background are chanting, “Death to America, death to England!”

And as if that weren’t enough, people are growing concerned about the Bank of Canada informing the public about its insurance policy. People are just getting paranoid, I guess:

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
NATO Chief Warns of Wartime

The chair of NATO’s military committee, Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer, has issued a serious warning to business leaders: prepare for a “wartime scenario” and bring production lines back home.

Bauer’s Warning

Bauer didn’t mince words on Monday at a European Policy Centre event.

• He urged businesses to stop relying on China and Russia to avoid blackmail or sabotage.

• “Businesses need to be prepared for a wartime scenario,” Bauer said, emphasizing the importance of economic resilience.

The Gazprom Lesson

This lesson might be a bit too late for Europe, as it has already felt the sting of political instability.

• Remember the Gazprom fuel deal? After the EU publicly supported Ukraine in 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin altered the deal, cutting gas supplies. This caused prices to surge and was widely seen as a tactic to exert economic pressure during the conflict.

• Bauer highlighted that deals with Russian and Chinese companies are essentially deals with their leaders, Putin and Xi Jinping.

China’s Economic Grip

China’s dominance in global production is a ticking time bomb.

• 60% of all earth materials are produced in China, with 90% processed there.

• Critical health care items, including sedatives and antibiotics, largely come from China.

So, can the West afford to go hard on China, diplomatically?

The Ukraine Conflict

Bauer’s final note was a call to action against Russia’s aggression.

• He warned against ending the Ukraine conflict with a victory for Russia, as it would embolden Moscow and Beijing.

• Trump’s suggested diplomatic end to the war, allowing Russia to keep invaded territories, would be a significant win for Putin.

🇬🇧🇫🇷 UK & FRANCE
UK and France Consider Sending Troops

Meanwhile, UK and France are considering sending troops to Ukraine as part of a European coalition, amid fears that Trump might pull US military aid to Kyiv.

With North Korea having invaded Ukraine as well, are we inching closer to World War 3

Reactivated Discussions

The idea of sending Western troops is back on the table.

• French daily Le Monde reports that discussions have been “reactivated” months after Macron faced opposition.

• Concerns are rising that Trump, set to take office on January 20, might cut US support for Ukraine.

Starmer’s Visit Boosts Proposal

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recent visit to France has given the proposal new momentum.

• Starmer visited for Remembrance Day on November 11.

• A British military source confirmed ongoing defense cooperation talks between the UK and France.

France’s Stance

France is keeping all options open.

• French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told the BBC, “We are not ruling out any option.”

• Barrot emphasized the importance of supporting Ukraine for European security.

Long-Range Missiles

France is ready to fire long-range missiles into Russia if needed.

• Barrot indicated that French Scalp missiles could be used in self-defense.

• This follows the UK and US in giving Kyiv the green light to use long-range missiles against Russia.

NATO’s Concerns

NATO is on high alert as tensions escalate.

• Moscow’s air defenses recently shot down eight ballistic missiles fired by Ukraine.

• NATO’s Military Committee Chair, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, warned that Russia’s land forces are now larger but of lower quality.

🇱🇧 LEBANON
Israel-Hezbollah Truce Imminent

US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are on the brink of announcing a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

Here’s the lowdown on what’s in the near-finalized agreement.

Ceasefire and Withdrawal

Israel and Hezbollah are set to agree on a two-month ceasefire.

• Israeli forces will withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days.

• Hezbollah will end its armed presence south of the Litani River.

• The Lebanese army will deploy thousands of soldiers to the vacated areas.

No Buffer Zone

Israel won’t set up a security zone in Lebanon.

• Troops will withdraw completely to the international border.

• Lebanese civilians can return to their homes in southern Lebanon.

Arms Control

Lebanon will oversee all arms purchases and production.

• This is to ensure nothing reaches Hezbollah.

• Israel demanded guarantees to remove Hezbollah’s weapons from the border area.

Israel’s Right to Respond

A US side letter will grant Israel the right to act against immediate threats.

• Israel can strike in Lebanon if Hezbollah violates the agreement.

• The US prefers Israel to tackle threats on Syrian territory if possible.

International Oversight

The US will head the international body overseeing the deal’s implementation.

• France will also sit on the panel.

• Lebanon and Israel had disagreements over the countries involved.

Political Support

There is near-unanimous support for the deal from Israel’s politicians and defense establishment.

• Strategic implications and arms supplies were key considerations.

• The deal aims to isolate Hamas in Gaza and raise the chances of a hostage deal.

Mistrust Over Deal

However, there’s still some skepticism about the ceasefire deal.

• US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk will be in Saudi Arabia to discuss using the Lebanon ceasefire as a catalyst for ending hostilities in Gaza.

• The far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, urged Israel to continue the war until “absolute victory.”

🇮🇷 IRAN
Khamenei Calls for Death Sentences

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for death sentences for Israeli leaders, criticizing the International Criminal Court's arrest warrants as insufficient.

Khamenei's Fiery Statement

Khamenei believes arrest warrants for Israeli leaders are not enough.

• He insists on capital punishment for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense chief Yoav Gallant.

• The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif on November 21, 2024.

ICC's Controversial Decision

The ICC's decision has sparked outrage in Israel.

• The warrants accuse Netanyahu and Gallant of crimes including murder and persecution.

• Israel, not an ICC member, rejects the court's jurisdiction and denies war crimes in Gaza.

Global Reactions

The US and some Western countries have mixed reactions to the ICC's decision.

• The US, also not an ICC member, rejects the decision.

• Britain and Italy have stated they would honor the arrest warrants if Netanyahu or Gallant visit their countries.

🇦🇪 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
NYT Changes Headline After Outcry

The New York Times faced backlash for downplaying the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan in Dubai. Critics accused the paper of minimizing the antisemitic nature of the crime, prompting a headline change.

Initial Headline Sparks Outrage

The original headline read, “Israeli rabbi who disappeared in Dubai is found dead.”

• Critics argued it downplayed the kidnapping and murder.

• Social media erupted, demanding accurate representation of the crime.

Revised Headline

The Times updated the headline to “An Israeli Rabbi Is Abducted and Killed in the U.A.E.”

• The change came after intense public pressure.

• Critics still felt the initial response was inadequate.

Official Reactions

Israeli officials and public figures condemned the murder as an act of antisemitic terrorism.

• Israel’s Prime Minister called it “an abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism.”

• Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Rep. Ritchie Torres criticized the Times for its initial coverage.

Arrests and Investigation

The UAE arrested three Uzbek nations in connection with Kogan’s murder.

• The UAE vowed to use all legal powers to deal with the perpetrators.

• Israel pledged to pursue justice to the fullest extent of the law.

Community Impact

Rabbi Kogan was a prominent figure in Dubai’s Jewish community.

• He managed Dubai’s only Kosher grocery store, which was shut down following his death.

• His wife, Rivky, is a US citizen and niece of a rabbi killed in the 2008 Mumbai attacks.