Hi Global Recap readers,
Last week’s poll regarding Trump’s current stance on Iran:
Disapprove, too inconsistent / mixed messaging (54%)
Disapprove, too soft / should act faster (23%)
Approve (5%)
Unsure (8%)
I also appreciated the thoughtful pushback from readers who disagreed with me too. A number of you shared angles I hadn’t considered, and it made for a genuinely valuable discussion—thank you.
To follow through, over the weekend a video began circulating online that reportedly shows an Iranian man addressing his YouTube subscribers with a "final message" about the situation in Iran, before ending his life.
Regardless of whether he is deceased, the message itself is difficult to hear. 👇🏼
🇮🇷 IRAN
Final Video Plea
An Iranian man, Pouria Hamidi, posted an English-language video urging Western leaders to stop negotiating with Iran’s rulers. Then, he reportedly committed suicide.
The clip spread fast online, but key details remain difficult to independently verify.
Identity. Pouria Hamidi was described as a young man from Bushehr.
In a roughly 10-minute video in English, Hamidi appealed to US President Trump and other Western leaders, urging them not to pursue negotiations with the Islamic regime.
He says that President Trump’s call to protest emboldened many to take to the streets, resulting in thousands of deaths. He framed a future deal as a betrayal of those who listened to him and paid with their lives.
Claims. Hamidi said Iranians were living under severe repression, economic hardship, and constant fear, and he described what he called mass killings.
He says more than 40,000 people had been killed in crackdowns, and argued that Iranians felt abandoned by the outside world.
He believes that Western engagement risks stabilizing a system many Iranians oppose and undercutting protest movements inside the country.
Note. The clip spread fast online, but key details remain difficult to independently verify.
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA
Released Then
Kidnapped Again
Maria Corina Machado (left) and Juan Pablo Guanipa (right)
A key ally to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was released from detention.
But without just hours, he was kidnapped again.
Timing. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said Guanipa, a leader in the Justice First party, was kidnapped in the Los Chorros neighborhood of Caracas early Monday, only hours after he walked free. She described armed men in civilian clothes arriving in four vehicles and taking him away "by force."
Account. Justice First said Guanipa was grabbed while moving between locations, and people with him reported weapons being pointed at the group before he was loaded into a car.
Edmundo Gonzalez, another opposition figure, publicly demanded proof of life and warned that the lack of information on Guanipa's whereabouts "constitutes a forced disappearance."
Guanipa's son, Ramon, had celebrated the release online and then posted a video demanding confirmation that his father was still alive.
History. Guanipa, a former Vice President of the National Assembly, had spent eight months in prison and was among at least 30 people released Sunday.
He was elected governor of Zulia in 2017 but was blocked from taking office after refusing to swear an oath before Maduro's National Constituent Assembly.
He then went into hiding after being accused of terrorism and treason over the disputed 2024 election result, before being arrested in May 2025.
How will the US respond to this?
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
NATO Command Handover
The US is giving up control of two top NATO command posts in a deliberate handover to European officers, a move tied directly to President Donald Trump’s push for a more European-led alliance.
Decision. The United States will transfer leadership of NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command in Naples, Italy, and Joint Force Command Norfolk in Virginia to European officers, according to a military source who spoke to Reuters on February 9.
Tradeoff. As part of the reshuffle, the US will assume command of three slightly lower-level but operationally critical posts:
Allied Air Command
Allied Maritime Command
Allied Land Command
Thoughts
Implications. On its own, this change may not immediately alter NATO’s battlefield posture.
NATO’s deterrence and warfighting capacity is still overwhelmingly underwritten by the US, which provides the largest share of alliance funding, the bulk of high-end capabilities, and the ultimate security guarantee.
A shift away from US-led command at the operational level signals a willingness to loosen the managerial grip that has long matched that material dominance.
President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde (left) and US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (right)
More Than Military. US hegemony in Europe is not just weapons though. It is about control of the system that keeps the region alive in the first place.
American leadership inside NATO has been the backbone of European security.
This enabled Europe’s political stability, economic integration, and institutional coherence after the WWII.
That same structure has reinforced deep financial coupling with the US, including sustained global demand for dollar-denominated assets and US government debt, a dynamic widely discussed in academic literature on hegemonic stability and borrowing costs.
President Truman signing the North Atlantic Treaty Proclamation in the Oval Office, 1949.
Consequences. This order did not emerge accidentally. It was built deliberately after the Second World War by successive US administrations that embedded American leadership into the military and financial architecture of the transatlantic system.
If command authority continues to migrate away from the US under the banner of “rotations,” the erosion will weaken the credibility of American coercive posture over time.
Countries that appear to comply today in the face of US pressure do so partly because US leadership looks permanent. If that permanence starts to look conditional, the boastful use of the term “FAFO” will not age well.
Hagia Sophia (completed in 537) in Istanbul is a painful reminder of what the Eastern Roman Empire once was. It was the great church of Constantinople and, for centuries, was often described as the world’s largest church. After Mehmed II of the Ottoman Empire conquered Constantinople in 1453, it was converted into a mosque. Today, some of its Christian mosaics are covered during prayers.
Many once believed Mehmed II would never take Constantinople, right up until the walls fell.
🇨🇺 CUBA
Air Canada Pulls
Cuba Flights
Air Canada just shut down every route to Cuba after officials warned aviation fuel is running out, an emergency tied to the US's blockade.
The airline says it will start repatriating about 3,000 customers as airlines across multiple continents scramble for workarounds.
Breakdown. On Monday, February 9, 2026, Air Canada confirmed it had canceled all flights to Cuba after Cuban authorities said they were running out of jet fuel. For an island that depends on winter tourism, this is detrimental as it hits one of the few sectors that still reliably brings in hard currency.
Pressure. The trigger for this is the US aiming to cut off oil deliveries, including threats of higher tariffs on countries that send oil to Cuba.
This is framed as a national security issue.
Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, called the approach "very unjust" and said, "You can't strangle a nation in this way," while Mexico sent 800 tons of humanitarian aid on Sunday and signaled it is exploring diplomatic routes to keep oil moving.
Logistics. The operational warning surfaced late Sunday via a Notice to Aviation, telling airlines that aviation fuel supplies would remain restricted until at least March 11, after Cubans had been told just two days earlier that international flights would continue.
📌 Context. Cuba's tourism revenue once ran above $3 billion a year and is now believed to have fallen below $1 billion. On the ground, gas stations closed across the country on Monday and drivers told they need an app-based online queue to find fuel, a system Cubans say barely works.
