🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & USA
Hormuz Mine
Cleanup Could Drag
You’re probably wondering: how long is this conflict with Iran going to last?
In a classified House Armed Services Committee briefing on Tuesday, a senior Defense Department official reportedly told Congress that clearing mines in and around the Strait of Hormuz could take 6 months.
But the thing is, this process is unlikely to begin until the war is over.
That said, the Pentagon later called that briefing account "inaccurate."
📌 Context. Average US gas hit $4.02 a gallon on Wednesday, up from $2.98 just before the war began in February.
Plus, President Trump just extended the ceasefire indefinitely in order to ensure that Iran has enough time to propose a new proposal for a peace deal.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Trump's NATO “Naughty” List
The White House reportedly created a so-called "naughty and nice" list of NATO countries, ahead of NATO chief Rutte’s Washington visit this month.
The test is simple:
defense spending
whether they backed the Iran war
Although it isn't clear what "punishments" look like yet, options reportedly include moving troops, cutting joint exercise, or limiting weapons sales.
Poland and Romania are probably safest with Trump: Poland already covers almost all the cost of hosting 10,000 US troops, and Romania has opened up Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base for Iran-related operations.
Spain, the UK, and France all look likely to land on Trump’s "bad" side after rejecting or limiting support for the US campaign against Iran and, in some cases, criticizing it outright.
With so much leverage over global oil, thanks to the Strait of Hormuz blockade and its own exports, could the US use oil as a weapon against the "bad" countries?
“Model allies that step up, like Israel, South Korea, Poland, increasingly Germany, the Baltics and others, will receive our special favor. Allies that still fail to do their part for collective defense will face consequences.”
🇪🇺 EUROPE
Pipeline Back,
Loan Approved
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (left) and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (right).
Right on cue: just as Ukraine said it had finished repairing the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, Hungary dropped its veto on the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine.
EU ambassadors approved it in principle, with Thursday sign-off expected.
The same meeting also moved a 20th sanctions package against Russia.
Slovakia says crude should arrive Thursday, first time since January 27.
Germany & Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Even so, right as Europe seemed to get some breathing room, Russia announced it would cut off Kazakh oil flows to Germany through another Druzhba branch from May 1.
Germany says it’s got backup routes through Gdansk and Rostock, so the Schwedt refinery is expected to keep running with lowered capacity.
Druzhba covers about 17% of the plant.
🇮🇷 IRAN
Hormuz Seizures Test Truce
One of the seized vessels, Panama-flagged MSC Francesca.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday that it seized two cargo ships near Hormuz.
Maritime officials said both ships were under fire before they were seized.
This is happening while the USA is enforcing a blockade on Iran's ports.
Despite fears that this could break the ceasefire, the White House says it still doesn’t.
One last point: the ceasefire looks real murky. Trump technically extended it, but Iran didn’t “formally agree” to that extension. So…
