Honestly, What Would You Do?

Hi Global Recap readers,

I wouldn’t trade places with either of these guys, unless you enjoy the nonstop pressure, global scrutiny, and the lingering fear that someone is always plotting your exit. But it is fun to imagine what you’d do if you were:

• A president with the world’s most formidable military.

• A dictator who can rule forever, assuming that said military doesn’t decide otherwise.

Lucky for us, we now have leaks on what these two actually said behind closed doors.

Are we on the brink of a leadership change? 👇️ 

🇺🇸🇻🇪 US & VENEZUELA
Maduro's Last Offer

U.S. President Trump reportedly told Venezuelan President Maduro he had one week to leave Venezuela during a call that later resulted in the U.S. declaring Venezuela's airspace effectively closed.

• Clarification: Before moving on, we should note that the U.S. can’t actually close Venezuelan airspace—only Venezuela can do that. What it can do is have the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issue warnings on it so that airlines and insurers steer clear. That doesn’t make the airspace "closed" on paper, but it does make it empty in practice.

• Offer: According to accounts leaked from the call, Trump’s team dangled evacuation for Maduro, his wife Cilia Flores, and their son if Maduro resigned went into exile.

• Demands: Maduro pushed back, asking for worldwide legal amnesty for himself and over 100 allies, the removal of U.S. sanctions, and for Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to lead an interim government ahead of new elections.

• Escalation: With the talks stalled over timing and guarantees, Trump publicly announced that Venezuelan airspace should be treated as "closed in its entirety," while U.S. ships, aircraft, and intelligence assets massed around the country and carried out strikes on suspected drug boats offshore.

What He Did Next

On Monday, Maduro used a choreographed rally outside the Miraflores Presidential Palace to swear "absolute loyalty" to the Venezuelan people.

• Symbolism: Beside him were his wife Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, sporting a red cap stitched with "doubt is betrayal," signaling zero tolerance for wavering inside the ruling camp.

• Weakness: However, experts generally agree that Venezuela’s military as hollowed out by corruption, sanctions, and decades of neglected equipment, making a concentrated "capture or kill" campaign against a small inner circle more plausible than a full-scale war.

• Targeting: U.S. officials and former diplomats say covert mapping of regime figures is complete and operations could begin soon.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Putin’s Premature
Victory Lap

Russia’s President is once again claiming a Ukrainian city capture that Ukraine says never happened. The script feels familiar and the timing is pointed.

• Claims: Vladimir Putin announced that Russian forces had taken Pokrovsk and Vovchansk the night before meeting U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow.

• Pushback: Ukraine’s military rejected the claims. Troops on the ground told ABC the cities remain contested and local units continue to hold positions.

• Motive: The assertions seem aimed at projecting momentum and leverage ahead of peace talks rather than reflecting conditions on the battlefield.

• Terrain: Pokrovsk and Vovchansk have seen months of close combat and heavy destruction. Independent analysts say Russia has seized large parts of both cities, but neither is yet fully under Russian control.

• Pattern: Moscow has made similar early declarations about cities like Kupiansk, only for Ukrainian forces to claw back territory later.

Analysis

If you’ve watched our Business Basics content, you know our team is passionate about making sense of the Russia-Ukraine war (and everything else happening around the world). They’ve been even more fired up ever since those Russian bots tanked our Spotify channel.

• If you enjoy my quick breakdowns of global events, the history behind them, and what they mean next, you’ll love the podcast.

• Why? It’s where we go deeper, and with much more context you won’t find in the newsletter.

If you haven’t subscribed yet (or you want to help fight the Russian nesting doll of bots) now’s the perfect time. Subscribe and leave a review! 👇️ 

🇪🇸 SPAIN
Pork Exports
Partially Reopened

Spain just reopened pork exports to China from every region except the small Bellaterra zone hit by an African swine fever outbreak. Beijing signed off while Spain deployed cops, drones and soldiers to contain the spread.

• Trigger: Two wild boar turned up dead near Barcelona and tested positive, prompting an immediate 6 km (3.7 miles) exclusion zone and a scramble from Spain’s agriculture ministry.

• Trade: Spain froze all pork shipments to China until later Beijing confirmed the new regionalization rule, now letting in pork from everywhere else. This is vital, given China buys 42% of Spain’s non E.U. exports.

• Response: Around 400 Catalan police and rural wardens, plus 117 troops from Spain’s military emergency unit using drones, are combing the area to find and remove carcasses.

• Origin: Investigators suspect the virus arrived via human food waste, with a wild boar likely eating discarded cold cuts or a sandwich brought from another European country, a worrying theory given the site sits next to the busy AP-7 highway that links Spain and France.

• Oversight: Eight more suspected cases in wild boar are under review as E.U. veterinarians head to Catalonia to inspect the response, while roughly one third of Spain’s pork export certificates remain blocked.

🇧🇬 BULGARIA
Budget Anger Erupts

Thousands packed downtown Sofia to protest the 2026 budget, and some even clashed with police as the crowd pushed against cordons during a tense rally. The plan is Bulgaria’s first written in euros ahead of its January 1 currency switch.

• Spark: Opposition parties, unions, and civic groups say the plan leans on higher social security contributions and a tax hike on dividends to fund more spending, while doing too little to tackle what they describe as entrenched state corruption. Critics say will squeeze workers and small owners.

• Anxiety: Remember—Bulgaria is planning to adopt the Euro on Jan. 1, 2026. And around half the country reportedly opposes joining the euro, worried about lost monetary sovereignty and price hikes during the switch from the lev, and European Central Bank Chief Lagarde has warned that inflation could jump once Bulgaria enters the euro zone.

• Clashes: In protest, some demonstrators threw rocks, bottles, and firecrackers at officers guarding offices of the ruling parties, prompting tighter police lines and a tense standoff after dark.