Huge power move

Hi Global Recap readers,

I hope your weekend was great! Mine was great, especially with the huge response to Friday’s poll about whether I should keep sharing my personal thoughts and context in the stories below.

I’ve read through all the comments, and as I’ve been doing for over a year, I’ll take everything to heart and continue improving.

That said, let me clarify my thoughts:

• I intentionally write my personal thoughts in yellow boxes to differentiate them from the rest of the story.

• And, of course, these opinions are mine—so they’re bound to be biased. I started adding them because I wanted to bring a more “human” side to these newsletters, rather than just sticking to what felt like more “manufactured” writing.

• So if you prefer just the updates without my take, feel free to skip over those sections!

A huge thank you to everyone who took part, regardless of your choice. 🙏 

🇩🇪 GERMANY
German Election Win

The mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, won in Germany's 2025 election over the weekend.

The CDU and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), together grabbed 28.5% of the vote, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in with 20.8%.

Election Outcome

• Preliminary results show the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to finish second.

• Voter turnout hit a record 83.5% on February 23, the highest since Germany's unification in 1990.

Major Gains & Losses

The election saw significant shifts among the parties.

• The AfD nearly doubled its vote share, making it the big winner in terms of voter gains.

• The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, recorded its worst result in a federal election and its largest loss of votes.

• The Free Democratic Party (FDP), whose withdrawal from the coalition triggered the snap election, failed to meet the 5% threshold and won't enter the Bundestag.

How Parliamentary Seats Work

• There are 630 seats in the Bundestag.

• Parties need to secure at least 5% of the vote or win in three districts to enter parliament.

• The CDU won 208 seats, needing a coalition to reach the 316-seat majority required to form a government.

• The AfD won 152 seats.

For AfD supporters celebrating their big seat gain, things aren’t as rosy as they might seem. And here’s why. 👇

Potential Coalitions

As mentioned in Friday’s newsletter, there’s a political “taboo” when it comes to teaming up with groups the establishment sees as “fringe” or “political extremists”—and the AfD is viewed as such by them.

• Unsurprisingly, the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, maintaining it as the "firewall" to the “far-right.”

• Likely options include a grand coalition with the SPD or a three-way coalition involving the Greens.

🇮🇱 ISRAEL
Jets Over Beirut
During Nasrallah's Funeral

On February 23, 2025, hundreds of thousands packed the Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium in Beirut.

Why? It was the funeral of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, Hashem Safieddine.

It was a highly publicized event—and the Israeli Air Force decided to attend as well.

Funeral

• The gathers chanted "Death to America, and death to Israel" as the coffins were brought in.

• A message from Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was delivered, vowing the conflict would continue.

Israeli Show of Force

Israeli Air Force jets swooped over Beirut at a low altitude, roaring past the massive crowd of Hezbollah supporters—delivering a clear message.

• Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the flyover was a demonstration of Israeli strength.

• "Anyone who threatens Israel will meet this end," he stated.

Hezbollah's Response

Hezbollah's current leader, Naim Qassem, did not attend but spoke via video.

• He vowed to continue Nasrallah's policy.

• He accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement.

Political Implications

Lebanon's political scene was stirred by the massive funeral.

• Representatives from Iran attended, including Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

• Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun called for unity, stating Lebanon had paid a heavy price for the Palestinian cause.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Putin’s Counteroffer

If you’ve been following the drama around the US's “possible” deal with Ukraine, you know it’s stirring up plenty of controversy.

• US officials have proposed that Ukraine hand over 50% of its revenue from natural resources—minerals, oil, and gas—until the US recoups $500 billion.

• Critics see this as blatant exploitation, arguing that the US is essentially using Ukraine’s massive reserves of lithium, titanium, and rare earth minerals as collateral for the billions they've pumped into the country.

Meanwhile, Putin is making a counteroffer with Russia's vast resources. Will this force Ukraine to make the deal with the US?

Putin's Counteroffer

Of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin isn't one to let an opportunity slip by.

• He's now countering with Russia's own mineral wealth, turning the tables on the US and Ukraine.

• Putin offers the US access to Russia’s rare minerals, including aluminum.

• He highlights Russia’s “substantially” larger resources than Ukraine’s.

• Putin’s proposal includes inviting American companies to develop aluminum reserves in Siberia.

Ties with China

Putin isn’t working alone; he’s keeping China in the loop, maintaining a strong partnership.

• Putin had a chat with Chinese President Xi Jinping about their countries’ “comprehensive partnership.”

• Putin also mentioned that he endorses Trump’s three-way nuclear arms control talks with China.

• Plans are in place for Xi to visit Moscow in May for Russia’s 80th Victory Day.

Current Situation

• The US imports roughly half of its aluminum, with most coming from Canada.

• Russia is a top producer, with vast reserves of aluminum and rare earth metals.

On the Ground in Ukraine

The situation on the ground in Ukraine remains quite dire.

• The Russian military claimed control of a lithium deposit in the Donetsk region last month.

• Pro-invasion bloggers describe these materials as “strategically important” for Europe and the US.

• Putin suggests Russia might grant the US access to mineral deposits in occupied Ukrainian territories.

This whole situation reminds me of this skit by Key & Peele:

🇮🇱 ISRAEL
Hamas Official
Regrets October 7 Attacks

Well, this is not what I expected.

A top Hamas official admitted he regrets the October 7 attacks on Israel, saying he wouldn’t have backed them if he had known just how much destruction Gaza would suffer as a result.

Statements & Regrets

Mousa Abu Marzouk, head of Hamas's foreign relations office, admitted in an interview with The New York Times that he wasn't aware of the detailed plans and wouldn't have agreed to the attacks if he had known the consequences.

• “If it was expected that what happened would happen, there wouldn't have been October 7,” he said.

• Abu Marzouk also remarked, “Hamas's survival in the war against Israel was itself a kind of victory.”

• However, he acknowledged that it would be “unacceptable” to claim Hamas had won given the massive destruction inflicted on Gaza by Israel.

• Abu Marzouk mentioned that the Hamas leadership is now open to negotiating disarmament in Gaza.

Hamas's Stance & Response

In response to Abu Marzouk's statements, Hamas clarified on its Telegram channel that his words were taken “out of context.”

• The organization emphasized that October 7 was an act of resistance against the siege, occupation, and settlements.

• Hamas reiterated their commitment to armed resistance until liberation and return are achieved.