Hi Global Recap readers,
I forgot to say “May the 4th be with you” yesterday... absolutely fumbled the easiest layup of an opener.
That said, we might all need a little of that now, because the already-shaky US-Iran ceasefire appears to have “technically” broken. Neither side probably wants to be the one to officially call it dead, but you know how these things go.
Very normal start to the week. Let’s get into it.
👀 At a Glance
This week…
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
US launches Project Freedom in Hormuz
Iran warns US escort missions breach ceasefire
🇨🇳🇺🇸 CHINA & US
China orders its companies to ignore US sanctions on Iran-linked refiners
🇩🇪🇺🇸 GERMANY & US
Trump announces further Germany troop drawdown beyond 5,000
🌐 OTHERS
Hantavirus outbreak kills three cruise passengers, with 7 cases identified.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Hormuz Gets Messy
On Monday, Iran tested the ceasefire by firing missiles, drones, and small boats around the Strait of Hormuz, just as the US tried to prove it could reopen the waterway.
But here's the messy part:
The UAE said it engaged 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones from Iran.
A drone reportedly sparked a fire at its biggest oil port, injuring three Indian nationals.
Iran did not clearly confirm or deny the attacks.
So what sparked Iran to break the ceasefire? An anonymous military official quoted by Iranian state TV blamed it on "US military adventurism."
What Adventurism?
US President, Donald Trump (left), and the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei (right).
This comes as the US claims it struck Iranian fast boats in the Strait of Hormuz while helping trapped commercial ships get out of the Gulf, all under the operation name Project Freedom.
What We Know:
The US military said it battled Iranian forces and sank 6 fast boats.
Iran denies the US version of the story and says civilian cargo boats were hit instead, killed civilians aboard.
Meanwhile, two US-flagged merchant ships were safely escorted under US protection.
President's Mad
President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian.
Iran's president has reportedly called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's (IRGC) latest Gulf escalation "madness" after missile and drone strikes on the UAE, saying the attacks were launched without government coordination.
The Split:
The presidency wants to preserve room for future negotiations.
But the IRGC is trying to enforce pressure around Hormuz.
If true, this is yet another evidence of massive fracture within the political elites of the Islamic Republic.
Pezeshkian is now said to be pushing for an urgent meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei to stop further attacks and reopen diplomatic channels before the ceasefire collapses (that is... if Khamenei's even alive).
🇨🇦 CANADA
Alberta’s Exit Threshold
Alberta separatists say they’ve submitted nearly 302,000 signatures to force a referendum on leaving Canada.
That clears the claimed bar by a lot: 178,000 signatures were needed.
Elections Alberta still has to verify them.
However, a court challenge from Alberta First Nations (Indigenous peoples of Canada, excluding Inuit and Métis) could block or delay the whole thing.
Where we are now:
Premier Danielle Smith says she doesn’t support separation, but would move ahead if the petition checks out.
Despite some Trump supporters joking that Alberta may become the 51st state, local support for independence still looks weak though, with polling generally under 30%.
A vote could come as early as October.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Parade Truce
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy (left), and Russian President, Vladimir Putin (right).
Russia declared a two-day Victory Day ceasefire in Ukraine for May 8-9, timed to Moscow’s World War II "Victory Day" parade.
Ukraine answered by saying it would stop firing earlier instead, from midnight on May 6, and respond in kind from there.
That said, Zelenskyy didn't put an end date on the truce.
Overview:
May 6: Ukraine says it will begin a truce.
May 8-9: Russia says its pause will run during Victory Day.
May 9: Moscow marks the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, this year with tighter security and a thinner parade.
By the looks of it, it seems like both sides are trying to own the pause:
Moscow wants a clean holiday spectacle.
Kyiv wants Putin stuck explaining why peace is only available during its parade.
Maybe this is the reason? 👇🏼
🇷🇺 RUSSIA
Putin Fears Assassination?
The Kremlin has tightened security around Vladimir Putin, with a European intelligence report saying aides face surveillance, visitors get double-screened, close staff are barred from public transport, and phones near Putin are stripped of internet access.
The trigger was reportedly a run of assassinations of senior Russian military figures, plus fear that leaks, drones, or an elite plot could reach the president himself.
Here's what's being reported:
Putin has reportedly cut the number of places he regularly visits.
His Federal Protective Service now covers more senior commanders.
Putin's close childhood friend and Secretary of the Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, is described in the report as tied to coup risk.
As previously reported, Russia's May 9 parade is being scaled back due to fears of a drone attack.
Note: Some of this is hard to verify, so take it with a grain of salt. But either way, the optics are brutal for the Kremlin.
If it’s true, that speaks for itself.
If it isn’t, the fact that it’s believable still makes Putin look weak, especially in a year when Russia’s Victory Day parade is ditching the tanks, missiles, and all the flashy hardware it used to flex so loudly.
In fact, British historian, Mark Galeotti, believes that this "leaked intel" smells more like a "psyop mean to generate paranoia in the Russian elite than a serious assessment."
