Hi Global Recap readers,
Today’s a big day.
We’re about to find out whether:
Trump “blows the shit out of" Iran
Iran signs a deal
But honestly, I think a third outcome is more likely.
My guess? President Trump says Pakistan (a supposed third-party mediator) urged him not to follow through, and uses that as the off-ramp. If I had to put money on it, I’d expect that announcement sometime after the stock market opens.
I’d genuinely love to take an L for this, but we’ll see soon enough.
What do you think?
👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: A US Apache goes down near Hormuz, CENTCOM hits Iranian air-defense and radar sites, and Iranian strikes are reported in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine hits Russian oil sites near Novorossiysk, Volgograd, Semykolodezkaya, and occupied Crimea.
🇱🇻 Latvia: A French fighter on NATO duty shoots down a drone over Latvia near the Russian border, the alliance's first drone shootdown over Latvia since Russia's Ukraine war began.
🇨🇳🇰🇵 China-North Korea: Chinese President Xi Jinping visits North Korea for the first time in 7 years.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Deal By Bombing?
A video circulating online that allegedly shows an IRGC command center being struck by the US. But a lot of people are asking the same thing: “if this target was known all along, why wasn’t it destroyed before?”
The US hit Iran again after Trump accused Tehran of dragging out talks, then threatened to "bomb the shit out of [Iran]" on Thursday if it doesn't sign a deal.
The Chronology
Strikes. US forces said they began another wave of strikes after midnight in Tehran, following earlier attacks on Iranian air-defense, ground-control, and radar sites near Hormuz after a US Apache went down near the Strait of Hormuz.
Retaliation. The IRGC said it fired missiles and drones at around 18 different US-linked targets in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. It claims it many of US fighter jets in Jordan's Al-Azraq aribase have been destroyed.
Claims.
Threat. Trump also told Yingst the US had fired 49 Tomahawks, would stop shortly, and would "bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night" if Iran refused a deal.
Fallout
For people who’ve been waiting for Trump to finally do something about the Islamic regime, this is probably a relief. But it’s also a huge double-edged sword.
Stake. The reality is that after years of talking tough, saying things like he’d “bomb the shit out of” Iran, there’s a real cost if nothing actually comes of it.
A lot of anti-regime Iranians inside Iran have been listening. So have the people chanting “Death to America.”
If there’s no follow-through, why would either side take those threats seriously? If anything, it could end up radicalizing both sides. When you try to play both sides, you often end up losing both
Loss. I keep thinking about Pouria Hamidi.
He was an Iranian man who uploaded a YouTube video imploring Trump not to negotiate with the Islamic regime when reports started circulating that he was looking for a deal.
We wrote about him back in February after he reportedly took his own life shortly after posting that video.
Nioh. And honestly, Nioh Berg doesn’t seem convinced either. She’s one of the most prominent anti-Islamic Republic voices online, and her frustration is pretty clear.
From her perspective, Trump keeps talking about making a deal with a terrorist regime that has every incentive to wait him out and no real reason to honor any agreement once he’s out of office.
🇨🇦 CANADA
Ban, But
There’s an Exit
Canada wants to ban social media accounts for kids under 16, but there’s a catch: platforms can keep younger users if they convince regulators they’ve put enough safeguards in place.
Bill. Bill C-34, introduced June 10, would create a Digital Safety Commission and set a 16-year minimum for social media accounts if it passes Parliament.
Escape. The exemption pathway makes this a prove-your-platform-is-safe test, not a pure ban.
Scope. AI chatbots face separate safety duties, including crisis-intervention measures, but not the same under-16 account ban.
Teeth. Reported penalties could hit C$10 million ($7.2 million) or 3% of global revenue, so youth safety becomes a compliance fight too.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Fuel Starts Pinching
In Russian-occupied Sevastopol, even rationed petrol distribution is no longer being handed out after fuel trucks couldn’t make it into the city.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is pointing to the disruption as evidence that Ukraine’s drone strikes are doing exactly what they were meant to do: making it harder for Russia to keep supplies moving.
Shortage. Russia-installed governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said existing fuel coupons would be canceled and reissued, with Thursday refueling priority going to public transport, utilities, emergency vehicles, and government vehicles.
Reach. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian drones can now hit Russian military logistics across occupied territory, plus border regions inside Russia.
Pattern. Recent Ukrainian strikes have hit bridges, ports, oil sites, and factories from occupied southern Ukraine to Samara and Cheboksary.
