Iran to attack soon

Hi Global Recap readers,

Remember when Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, 2024?

I remember getting live alerts all over social media. The visuals were horrifying, but civilian casualties were surprisingly low—ironically, one Palestinian was killed, two Jordanians were lightly injured, and in Israel, one person died while two others sustained minor injuries.

Could we see a repeat of this soon—this time targeting a US-UK base?

Iran says we will. 👇️

🇮🇷 IRAN
Iran Threatens to Attack US

Iranian officials are reportedly urging military commanders to consider a preemptive strike on the Diego Garcia base, a strategic US-UK outpost, as tensions with Donald Trump’s administration escalate.

The Base

Diego Garcia, located in the British-owned Chagos Islands, is a critical military hub.

• It houses 4,000 personnel, mostly American, and supports operations across Africa, Asia, and Oceania.

• The base is equipped with B-2 Spirit bombers, known for their stealth and deadly payload capabilities.

Iran’s Concerns

Iranian officials fear the base could be used to launch attacks on their underground facilities.

• Satellite images confirm the recent deployment of three B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia. However, some estimates suggest the actual number could be as high as seven.

• Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign has heightened fears of military intervention.

Trump’s Threats

Donald Trump recently sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei.

While the explicit details remain undisclosed, we know that the letter included a two-month deadline for reaching an agreement and warned of potential consequences if Iran continued its nuclear program without engaging in talks.

• He described potential bombings as “the likes of which they have never seen before.” (A classic Trump line, of course)

• Trump prefers a deal but insists military action is on the table.

Iran’s Response

Iran is preparing for potential conflict, with missiles “locked and loaded.”

• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to target US bases and troops in the region.

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed a “strong reciprocal blow” if attacked.

Issues

There are 3 main views I see online. What’s your view?

1. Iran doesn’t have missiles that can reach Diego Garcia. Its aggressive rhetoric is largely for domestic propaganda.

2. Trump is a warmonger.

3. This is a calculated show of force meant to maintain peace through strength.

🇩🇪 GERMANY
Germany to regulate “lies”?

Germany’s CDU and SPD coalition is reportedly drafting a policy to stop the spread of “lies” by imposing stricter regulations, particularly on social media platforms.

But critics worry about its impact on free speech—after all, who gets to decide what’s "true"?

The Policy Proposal

Germany’s coalition allegedly wants to curb fake news and manipulation online.

• The draft states that “deliberate dissemination of falsehoods” isn’t protected under freedom of speech.

• Social media platforms like X will face increased pressure to monitor and restrict harmful content.

Who Got the Draft?

However, take this claim with a HUGE grain of salt. The draft policy was reportedly obtained by BILD, Germany’s well-known tabloid. Until it's officially confirmed, be wary of treating it as fact.

• The draft comes from the coalition’s “Culture and Media” working group.

• The paper outlines plans to increase pressure on platforms like X and restrict certain types of speech.

• Even if this draft never becomes official, it still reveals a lot about the coalition’s stance on free speech—assuming the report is accurate.

Legal Concerns

Critics argue the policy could overreach and blur the lines between opinion and fact.

• Legal experts warn that terms like “hate speech” and “manipulation” are vague and could lead to misuse.

• Professor Volker Boehme-Neßler points out that “spreading hate” is still protected under freedom of speech in Germany.

International Backlash

The policy has sparked reactions beyond Germany’s borders.

• US Vice President JD Vance criticized Europe’s regulatory approach in a recent speech.

• Elon Musk, owner of X, has also voiced opposition, calling it a threat to free expression.

The Bigger Picture

This is part of a growing debate on how democracies should handle “misinformation.”

• Some see it as a necessary step to protect democracy.

• Others worry it could set a dangerous precedent for censorship.

📊 Poll

My argument has always been this: How can we determine the truth of an argument unless people are free to voice their opinions—even if they’re outright false—and let them face the test of the public marketplace of ideas?

If speech is stifled under the threat of legal consequences, only government-approved ideas will be allowed, making progress and discovery in countless fields incredibly difficult, if not impossible.

So now you get where I’m coming from—what do you think?

🇫🇷 FRANCE
Marine Le Pen Barred from 2027

We recently covered the case of Istanbul Mayor and Turkish presidential hopeful İmamoğlu, who has been effectively barred from running in the 2028 election.

France has taken a similar step, though there’s ongoing debate about whether politics played a role in the decision.

The Conviction

Marine Le Pen, France’s “far-right” leader, has been convicted of embezzlement, barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election.

• Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds to finance her National Rally party.

• She allegedly played a “central role” in the scheme, according to the court.

• The funds, intended for parliamentary aides, were used to pay party staff.

• She received a four-year prison sentence, with two years suspended, and a €100,000 fine.

Political Fallout

• Le Pen, who was leading in polls, is now ineligible for public office for five years.

• Her protégé, Jordan Bardella, may step in as a presidential candidate.

• Critics and supporters alike are divided, with some calling it a “democratic crisis.”

Le Pen’s Reaction

Le Pen has denied wrongdoing and called the ruling a “political” attack.

• She vowed to appeal, though chances of overturning the decision are slim.

• Her fiery response included a promise to fight back against what she sees as a “democratic denial.”

• Le Pen uttered a single word as she stormed out of a Paris courtroom on Monday:

Broader Implications

• The National Rally remains the largest party in the lower house of Parliament.

• Even if President Macron calls snap elections, Le Pen won’t be eligible to run.

• The ruling could deepen divisions in an already fragile government.

🇨🇳 CHINA 🇯🇵JAPAN 🇰🇷KOREA
Asian Powers Unite Against Tariffs

In a rare show of unity, China, Japan, and South Korea are joining forces to push back against US tariffs after their first economic talks in five years.

However, there’s still disagreement on the specifics.

What Happened?

The three countries met on Sunday to discuss regional trade and supply chain cooperation.

• They agreed to strengthen supply chain ties and engage in more dialogue on export controls.

• Talks on a South Korea-Japan-China free trade agreement were sped up to promote regional and global trade.

The Tariff

But here’s where their mutual distrust starts to show:

Chinese state media claimed the countries would jointly respond to US tariffs, but South Korea called this “somewhat exaggerated.”

• South Korea’s trade ministry clarified that the joint statement focused on economic and trade cooperation.

• Japan’s foreign ministry hasn’t commented yet.

Trump’s “Liberation Day”

US President Donald Trump is set to announce more tariffs on Wednesday, dubbing it “Liberation Day.”

• Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo are key US trading partners, but they’re also tangled in their own disputes—territorial conflicts, WWII atrocities, ideological divides, and Japan’s Fukushima wastewater release.