Hi Global Recap readers,
This was certainly not what I anticipated.
First, the Hungarian PM made his usual push to have the Russian oil pipeline running through Ukraine repaired.
Then, the Ukrainian president supposedly hinted at his assassination.
And now, Ukraine is accusing Hungary of holding its workers hostage.
What a development… You be the judge. 👇🏼
🇺🇦 UKRAINE
Assassination Call?
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (left) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (right).
TLDR:
^ Hungarian PM Orbán says Hungary will force Ukraine to reopen a damaged oil pipeline.
^ Ukrainian President Zelenskyy fired back he rather not fix it because it’s Russian oil.
^ He then made a comment that some interpreted as a death threat against a “certain person” if the individual were to block the EU’s €90 billion package.
Details
Threats. It all started on Thursday, when Orbán said Hungary would "break the oil blockade by force" and push Ukraine to reopen the Druzhba pipeline. He repeated the line in a speech to Hungary's Chamber of Commerce and Industry and said there would be "no deals, no compromise."
Spark. At a press conference in Kyiv on Thursday, Zelenskyy shot back, saying that the pipeline could be technically ready to resume operations within a month and a half, but that he would prefer not to restart it because it carries Russian oil.
He then went on to say: "They [the Russians] are killing us, and we're supposed to give poor little Orbán oil, because without it he won't win elections.”
He also said if a "certain person" in the EU should block the €90 billion tranche meant to arm Ukrainian soldiers, Ukraine will give this person's address to its armed forces so they could speak to that person "in their own language."
Fury. Budapest took that as a direct threat toward Orbán.
Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said Zelenskyy had practically threatened the PM with death and said Hungary would not be blackmailed.
Context
Pipeline. The fight runs through the Druzhba oil pipeline, which was hit in a Russian attack in late January and has stayed out of service. Hungary and Slovakia are the last EU members still taking significant volumes of Russian oil through that route.
Politics. The timing is rough for Orbán because Hungary votes in April, and ties with Kyiv plus Ukraine's EU bid have become campaign issues. Even Peter Magyar, Orbán's main challenger, criticized Zelenskyy's comment.
📊 Poll
Some online say President Zelenskyy’s remarks were not intended as death threats against the Hungarian PM, while others argue that they clearly were. What do you think?
🇺🇦 UKRAINE
Bank Workers Held
“Hostage”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha
TLDR:
^ Ukraine is accusing Hungary of holding seven Oschadbank workers "hostage" in Budapest.
^ They were moving $40 million and €35 million in cash.
^ Oschadbank says the cargo also included 9 kg (20 lbs) of gold.
Details
Claim. On Friday, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, said Hungarian authorities took seven employees of state savings bank Oschadbank hostage in Budapest.
He said Ukraine still didn't know why they were being held or what condition they were in.
Sybiha pushed the accusation hard. He called it "state terrorism and racketeering" and said Hungary had taken hostages and stolen money.
Cargo. Oschadbank said the seven were traveling in two cars carrying $40 million, €35 million, and 9 kg (20 lbs) of gold from Austria to Ukraine.
Opinions. Critics say Orbán is manufacturing a crisis to bolster his election prospects. His supporters, meanwhile, are daring Zelenskyy to test that claim, arguing that doing so would trigger NATO’s Article 5 and, in their view, end the EU’s support for Ukraine.
🇹🇷 TURKEY
Article 5 Off
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan responds to the attack by urging Iran (somewhat indirectly) not to “adopt a wrongful attitude that undermines the principles of neighborly and brotherly relations.”
Click for video
TLDR:
^ An Iranian ballistic missile was heading toward Turkey.
^ NATO air defenses destroyed it.
^ Turkey accuses Iran, but Iran denies.
^ People are asking "where's NATO's Article 5?"
^ NATO says nobody is talking about it.
Details
Incident. Turkey said NATO air defenses destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile on Wednesday as it headed into Turkish airspace. Iran denied firing anything at Turkey and said it respects Turkish sovereignty.
Response. However, in a live interview, NATO chief Mark Rutte said "Nobody's talking about Article 5" even while calling the missile episode serious.
That matters because Article 5 is NATO's mutual defense clause, the one that treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.
The United States and Turkey are both NATO members.
Politics. Rutte also said many NATO countries back the USA and Israel's strikes on Iran.
However, leaders including Spain's Sanchez and Turkey's Erdogan have openly criticized them as illegal and dangerous.
So NATO is trying to project unity while some of its own members are clearly not on the same page.
🇦🇿 AZERBAIJAN
Condolences, Then Drones
A video circulating online purports to show an Iranian drone striking near the airport. Reuters also referenced the footage.
Click for video
TLDR:
^ Azerbaijan says Iran hit its Nakhchivan exclave with drones.
^ Four civilians injured, civilian sites damaged.
^ Irony? This happened just one day after Azerbaijani President Aliyev offered condolences for Khamenei's death.
^ Supporters of Iran’s Islamic regime claim false flag.
Details
Strike. The attack hit the Azerbaijani city of Nakhchivan on Thursday, with Azerbaijani officials saying four drones were fired toward the exclave.
One crashed near the airport
Another hit near a school
four people were reported injured
Response. President Ilham Aliyev called it "a groundless act of terror and aggression" and told the military to get retaliatory measures ready.
Denial. Iran's armed forces denied launching a drone into Azerbaijani territory.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited Iran’s Embassy in Baku to offer condolences over the deaths of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and numerous civilians.
Irony. The timing could not have been worse:
Wednesday: Aliyev sends condolences and goes to the Iranian Embassy.
Thursday: Azerbaijan says Iran sent drones into Nakhchivan.
Commentary. Some saw this not as Azerbaijan choosing Iran over Israel, but as an attempt to lower tensions with Tehran.
This is because Azerbaijan and Iran have had a tense relationship for years, partly because Azerbaijan has close ties with Israel.
And Iran worries about losing leverage in the South Caucasus.
📌 Context. Nakhchivan matters because it is geographically isolated from the rest of Azerbaijan and sits right next to both Iran and Turkey.
