Hi Global Recap readers,
The sense I’m getting, now that everyone’s had time to digest the details of the MOU, is that critics have largely gotten their initial frustration out of their system—for now.
That’s probably good for everyone’s cortisol levels heading into the weekend. However, the situation in the Middle East doesn’t appear to be improving.
Iranian officials are now openly mocking the US
Some Gulf states may be quietly coordinating with Iran
Tehran is reportedly violating the MOU with little apparent consequence.
More on that later, but first let’s talk about the 40-day plan President Zelenskyy just approved. 👇🏼
👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: US Vice President Vance says Switzerland talks produced a 60-day roadmap and IAEA inspector access, while Iran denies new commitments.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom: UK PM Starmer says he will resign as Labour leader.
🇮🇷 Iran: Iran's Bank Melli, Bank Saderat and Bank Tejarat suspend card services after a 2nd cyberattack in 2 weeks.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine hits Russian oil, electronics and Crimea infrastructure targets this week, including a Tyumen refinery more than 2,000 km (1,200 miles) from Ukraine and energy sites that leave parts of occupied Crimea in rolling blackouts.
🛢️ Oil: US emergency oil reserves fall to their lowest level since June 1983.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
40 Days of “Sanctions”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he approved a 40-day SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) operation against Russia aimed at forcing an end to the war. He gave almost no operational detail, which is probably the point.
Plan. Zelenskyy said the SBU briefing covered "long-range sanctions," "medium-range sanctions," and drone results at the front. He did not explain what the 40-day operation will include.
Note: He has previously used “long-range sanctions” to describe long-range drone swarm attacks on Moscow.
Pressure. We’re now seeing a shift in momentum.
Ukraine is signaling a sustained, time-bound campaign, while Russia is dealing with reported strikes on refineries, energy infrastructure, and logistics hubs in Crimea.
That said, Moscow has not confirmed Ukraine’s claims about the extent of the damage, even though videos of several strikes are circulating online.
Belarus Changing?
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (right).
The more unexpected subplot is Belarus.
Apology. Self-described Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko recently apologized to Zelenskyy for past inflammatory remarks, including warnings that Belarus could strike Ukraine if its territory were threatened. He also said Belarus has no plans for military action, while urging Zelenskyy to stop provoking Belarus.
Signals. Ukraine says Russian-linked signal repeaters in Belarus stopped operating after Kyiv warned Minsk to remove them or face strikes. Zelenskyy said it is unclear whether Belarus dismantled them or just paused them.
Speculation. One Ukrainian analysis frames this as Lukashenko resisting Kremlin pressure.
🇲🇩🇷🇴 MOLDOVA & ROMANIA
Union Bill for
Russian Takeover?
Romania’s SOS Romania party quietly slipped through a bill on June 24 calling for union with Moldova, after lawmakers let the 45-day review deadline expire without bringing it to a plenary vote.
Mechanics. The Chamber was only the first chamber. The Senate still has the final say, and its tracker lists the bill as registered for debate there.
Text. The bill says Romania's Parliament "decides" union with Moldova and authorizes urgent talks with Moldovan authorities to finalize it, plus notifications to Moldova, the US, NATO, the UN, and the EU.
Pushback. Romania's Government, Legislative Council, Economic and Social Council, and Chamber committees gave negative opinions.
Read. This is louder as symbolism than law. It gives pro-Russian Moldovan figures an easy annexation narrative while leaving no actual union in force.
🇪🇺🇺🇦 EU & UKRAINE
Cash And Drones
European Council President António Costa (left), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center), and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (right).
The EU started wiring Ukraine the first €3 billion ($3.4 billion) from a €90 billion ($101 billion) support loan, using a recovery conference in Poland to show that backing Kyiv is now a budget line, not a one-off promise.
Timing. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said another €6 billion ($6.7 billion) for drone production should start moving in the coming days.
Pitch. Ukrainian PM Svyrydenko said her delegation planned 160 deals worth more than €10 billion ($11.2 billion), while European leaders launched a fund for Ukrainian strategic sectors.
Friction. Zelenskyy skipped the event after a diplomatic spat with Polish President Karol Nawrocki over Ukraine’s decision to honor a military unit linked to the wartime Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA).
Context: UPA is a group many Poles associate with the World War II Volhynia massacres.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Zelenskyy’s absence could help lower the temperature.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Iran Violates MOU
This unverified video reportedly shows the IRGC Navy (Sepah Navy) broadcasting on Marine VHF Channel 16, warning that vessels may only transit the Strait of Hormuz with its permission and that those who do not will face the consequences.
Click for video
Iran is already violating the US-Iran MOU. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly just hit the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely with a drone while it was exiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Breach. Point 5 of the MOU was supposed to reopen Hormuz and give the US and Iran 60 days to settle the bigger "deal." If the US attribution is right, Iran attacked a commercial ship in the lane the agreement was meant to calm.
Damage. UK maritime officials said the ship's bridge was damaged about 7.5 nautical miles (8.6 miles) southeast of Dahit, Oman, with no reported casualties.
Response. The US has not announced any new punitive measures in response to the strike.
Supporters argue the concessions are a pragmatic tradeoff, aimed at lowering energy prices, keeping shipping through the strait open, reducing hostilities, and creating space for the regime to eventually moderate its behavior.
One of the biggest counters to the supporters’ claims is that the strait was already open before the war. Critics argue Iran now seems emboldened to openly antagonize and contradict the US without consequences, making the US look weak.
Now, Iran appears to be pushing for “service fees” for ships transiting the Strait while openly mocking the President of the United States and boasting about how the regime plans to use the billions of dollars in unfrozen assets. 👇🏼
The Fee Play
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Araghchi recent post on X, featuring an image of him (right) shaking hands with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi (left).
Iran is reportedly pushing to turn reopening Hormuz into money and control, with Tehran estimating a security, safety, and environmental-fee system could raise $40 billion a year for participating states.
Pitch. Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi said Iran and Oman would discuss the strait's future administration and maritime services with neighbors.
Pushback. However, Oman said it has no plan to impose transit fees and supports toll-free safe passage under international law.
Problem. US Secretary of State Rubio said Gulf states had "zero support" for fees on international waters.
The Money Fight
The farm-goods promise is wobbling too.
Claim. President Trump recently told reporters that the released Iranian funds will buy US corn, wheat, and soybeans (framing it as a boost to US farmers).
Denial. However, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called that fake and mocked the US instead. Iran's central bank chief and Foreign Ministry have also said Tehran is not required to buy US agricultural goods and will decide how to use released funds.
