Hi Global Recap readers,
Despite earlier rumors, Mojtaba Khamenei (son of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) has reportedly been tapped as the next Supreme Leader. If so, it also suggests Mojtaba is alive, despite claims to the contrary.
That’s why some say the protesters’ chant “Death to Khamenei” can’t be retired just yet.
And, almost on cue, internet access across Iran has been shut down again. There are also scattered reports that members of the IRGC have been firing at people celebrating the US strike from their apartment balconies.
🇮🇷 IRAN
Mojtaba Khamenei:
Next Supreme Leader
The second eldest child of Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei.
TLDR: Iran's top clerics have elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late supreme leader's son, as the next Supreme Leader of Iran. They even floated announcing it as early as Wednesday morning, but some worried that could paint a target for the US and Israel.
Details
Deliberation. The Assembly of Experts met Tuesday to pick Iran's next supreme leader, and Mojtaba Khamenei came out as the clear winner.
However, some clerics hesitated because naming him fast could expose him to attack.
According to Iran International, Khamenei has already been elected "under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards."
Workaround. The group held two virtual meetings, one in the morning and one in the evening.
Why virtual? Some suggest it's due to fears that an in-person gathering could make participants a target.
In fact, Israel struck a building in Qum where the assembly was scheduled to meet, but the building was reportedly empty.
Profile. Mojtaba Khamenei is 56 and is described as influential but reclusive, operating in the shadow of his father Ali Khamenei. He has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which pushed for his appointment.
Alternatives. Other finalists include:
Alireza Arafi, a cleric and jurist on a three-person transition council
Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini
One Iran expert said choosing Mojtaba would be a telling sign that the Revolutionary Guards' hard-liners are now calling the shots.
📌 Context. The Assembly of Experts is 88 senior Shiite clerics, chosen in public elections, who under Iran's Constitution appoint, supervise, and can dismiss the supreme leader. It last made a choice like this in 1989 when it selected Ali Khamenei, who then ruled for more than four decades.
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA
Washington’s
Indictment Leverage
Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez.
TLDR: News orgs are claiming that the Trump administration is quietly putting together draft charges against Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez—basically using the threat of an indictment as leverage to keep her from going off-script. But US Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche is calling it fake news.
Details
Setup. US federal prosecutors have prepared potential charges tied to alleged corruption and money laundering, and Rodriguez has been told she could face prosecution if she stops meeting US demands after Nicolas Maduro was captured in January.
Scope. The draft charges are being prepared by the US Attorney’s Office in Miami and focus on alleged laundering of funds connected to Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, covering activity from 2021 to 2025.
Raúl Gorrín (left) and Alex Saab (right).
Demands. Separately, US officials have given Rodriguez a list of at least seven people they want arrested or kept in custody in Venezuela for possible extradition.
The list includes Alex Saab and media owner Raúl Gorrín.
Both faced US cases tied to bribery, corruption, and money laundering linked to PDVSA. They have reportedly been detained by Venezuela’s intelligence service SEBIN.
Pushback. The Justice Department declined to comment, and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche publicly called the reporting “completely FALSE,” while the news organization behind the report said it stands by its account.
🇩🇪 GERMANY
Merz's Oval Office Silence
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (left) and US President Donald Trump (right).
TLDR: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz tried a "grovel" strategy in the Oval Office, staying quiet while Donald Trump ripped into European allies.
Critics say Merz let himself be publicly humilitated
Supporters argue it was a pragmatic way to handle Trump, absorbing the theatrics in front of the cameras so the "real" diplomacy can happen behind closed doors.
💭 Thoughts. Long time readers may already know where I stand on this: the latter.
Details
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (left) and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer (right).
Spain. Merz sat mostly silent next to Trump as Trump threatened to "embargo" Spain and escalated his trade-war talk toward Europe.
This follows Spain’s refusal to authorize use of the Rota naval base and Morón air base for US's strikes on Iran. Madrid condemned it as an “unjustified” and “dangerous” military intervention.
Trump also suggested that if the US really wanted to use the bases, it could simply fly in and use them regardless.
UK. Trump went after UK Prime Minister Starmer too, including a jab that "this is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with," and he complained about a dispute tied to the UK's initial refusal to allow the US to use the Diego Garcia base in its strikes on Iran.
Method. Merz’s plan was simple: don’t correct Trump in front of the cameras, then try to talk him around behind closed doors.
Spin. Afterward, Merz said that he pushed back against Trump privately. Here's what he reportedly did in private:
He told Trump that Spain won’t get singled out on trade because it’s in the EU
He defended UK Prime Minister Starmer.
Stakes. Merz wants Trump to cool the tariff fight and pressure Vladimir Putin harder with sanctions instead.
But in front of the cameras Trump showed little sign of shifting.
Instead, he seemed to be doubling down on trade-war talk and airing fresh complaints about support for Ukraine.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE
Russia’s February Backslide
TLDR: Russia ended February in a small net reversal, losing 37 km² (14.3 sq mi) more than it gained, the first time that’s happened since 2023. The total occupied area ticked down to 118,914 km² (45,914 sq mi).
Details
Tally. A Finnish open-source intelligence group tracked the month as a net loss for Russia, a rare change after a long stretch of grinding gains.
Claim. Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 2 that Ukraine captured more territory than Russia occupied in February, lining up with the overall direction of the map.
South. The Ukrainian gains were tied mainly to counterattacks on the southern front, where the same OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) group said Ukraine pushed Russia out of 213 km² (82.2 sq mi).
Fog. However, it should be noted that the front line is getting blurrier, with “grey zone” areas and infiltrations that make clean, objective mapping harder.
