Hi Global Recap readers,
I think we’ve seen this pattern over and over this year:
ceasefire gets announced
both sides accuse each other of violating it
more “violations” happen, but they are ignored
That’s good for stopping the fighting. But today, people’s frustration seems to stem from something else: confusion.
Normally, when one side is overwhelmingly stronger, it doesn’t keep letting the weaker side f around forever. At some point, they make them find out.
So why is Iran being allowed to f around? 👇🏼
👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: President Trump says a US-Iran deal is close, but the rumored framework is already getting hit from both sides over enriched uranium, frozen funds, sanctions relief.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Russia uses a nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missile in a mass Kyiv-region attack that Ukraine says includes 600 drones and 90 missiles.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
US Strikes Iran,
But Ceasefire Still On
The US military said it carried out self-defense strikes on Iranian targets today after reports of loud blasts near Bandar Abbas started spreading. 
The targets were Iranian boats, which were reportedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, plus a surface-to-air missile site in Bandar Abbas.
What We Know:
CENTCOM said it eliminated 2 IRGC boats and hit the missile site to protect US troops, while still using restraint during the ceasefire.
Iran-linked Tabnak identified 4 Guard troops killed on boats, while Iran had not issued an official casualty count.
Technically, both the strikes and the mine-laying would break the ceasefire, but a lot of anti-regime voices online don’t think either side is actually going to call it off.
The Deal Problem
The awkward question is no longer whether Washington can hit IRGC targets.
It just did.
The bigger question is why the US is still pushing the deal while Iran is escalating by laying mines in the same waterway the deal is supposed to reopen.
A few possible theories:
Oil, LNG, shipping, insurance, and inflation are all weighing on the US and global economy.
Some also suspect ammunition shortages may be a factor, though that is highly speculative.
Or it may just be practical. Trump may think he needs someone in Tehran to negotiate with (same with Venezuela). Full regime change could destabilize the region further and eventually require US troops on the ground.
The US simply can’t fully dismantle the IRGC’s presence in the Strait.
💭 Thoughts. These theories keep spreading only because the administration still hasn’t clearly explained why Iran is being allowed to yield so much influence over the Strait, especially if the US is so militarily dominant.
Looking Weak
Many are starting to say that the US looks weak for failing to finish off Iran quickly and cleanly (whatever the reason may be).
And this latest move makes it worse:
Tehran is now saying that it won’t impose a transit toll. The US opposes it, and reportedly China and Russia do too.
Instead, it will charge an “environmental tax” under a new maritime framework it’s negotiating with Oman.
Yes, really.
Since a toll could run into legal problems, they’re basically rebranding it as a service fee for “environmental protection” and navigational safety.
💭 Long story short: it’s wordplay. And it looks like wordplay meant to mock the US while betting Washington won’t do anything about it.
🎙️ PODCAST
Just Randomly
Recently, I randomly watched a documentary on the fall of the Soviet Union (can’t remember why).
After making so many videos on Putin and Russia, I thought I had a pretty good grasp of what’s going on there. But this documentary really made me see it more from Putin’s perspective:
being born in the Soviet Union,
watching your country come close to civil war,
seeing your motherland collapse and get replaced by a new system,
while your heart still belongs to the old one.
Then I thought: I want to give my subscribers this kind of experience too. I’m learning with every episode, and I’ll keep working toward that.
So join the journey 👇🏼
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Leave Kyiv Now
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Russia told foreigners and diplomats to get out of Kyiv, then Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov told US Secretary of State Rubio that Moscow plans to start hitting military-linked sites and “decision-making centers” in the capital more systematically.
What We Know:
The warning follows a May 24 barrage that Kyiv city officials said killed 2 people and wounded 91.
Wider Ukrainian reports put the toll at at least 4 killed and 91 wounded.
Moscow said it used an Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile, a nuclear-capable system.
Ukraine called the warning blackmail, and the EU ambassador in Kyiv said EU diplomats would stay.
Russia is clearly trying to make foreign presence in Kyiv feel like a liability.
🇪🇸 SPAIN
Hantavirus Isn't Done
Just as the MV Hondius hantavirus story was starting to fade, Spain confirmed another case: a Spanish national already in preventive quarantine at Madrid's Gómez Ulla Hospital tested positive during routine monitoring.
What We Know:
The patient was a close contact from the original outbreak, had been under isolation and clinical surveillance, and was moved to the hospital's high-level isolation unit.
Spain says the case does not change the risk to the public because it was caught inside the existing quarantine system.
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) lists 12 total cases linked to the ship, including 10 confirmed, 2 probable, and 3 deaths.
🇨🇦 CANADA
Alberta Question Update
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that Alberta's October 19 separation question could become a "dangerous bluff."
But the separatist push looks weak in new Angus Reid polling:
67% of Albertans say they would vote to stay in Canada in a direct independence vote.
30% would vote to leave.
