Hi Global Recap readers,
I don’t think it’s any secret that I think the Iran–US MOU is a bad deal. To challenge my own views, I spoke with friends who disagreed.
They see it as a way to avoid another endless conflict.
I’d argue that striking a deal with the regime only prolongs it.
My concern is that it doesn’t actually solve anything. It just hands the same problem to the next president—as the Iran issue has been sitting on American presidents’ desks for decades.
There’s also the humanitarian side of it. After telling Iranians that help was coming, we’re now talking about billions in funding for the same regime that gunned them down in the streets.
What are your thoughts? 👇🏼
(And yes, there's finally a poll at the end.)
🇨🇴 COLOMBIA
Colombia’s Right-Wing Win
Colombian president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella.
Trump-backed right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly beat left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in Colombia's runoff, with preliminary results at 49.66% to 48.7%.
But outgoing President Gustavo Petro and Cepeda are calling it foul.
Why? Israel.
Challenge. Cepeda says his camp will contest results from about 33,000 polling stations. Petro says only the official scrutiny process can name the winner.
Israel. Petro claims he has evidence that National Registry server IP addresses changed and said "the state of Israel" was the only actor capable of doing it. He has not publicly proved that.
Crackdown. De la Espriella campaigned on 10 maximum-security mega-prisons, ending Petro’s negotiations with armed groups and cartels, and launching a military crackdown on drug cartels and coca cultivation.
Mood. Supporters of the president-elect are celebrating it as a win against socialism.
📌 Context. A Colombian president can only serve one term of four years.
🇬🇧🇺🇸 UK & US
Starmer’s Leaving Today?
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer
US President Trump claimed UK PM Starmer "will resign" before Starmer had announced anything. But by then, social media was already full of “BREAKING” posts pushing the same rumor.
So did Trump actually get a heads-up from the UK and leak the news? Or was he just repeating what was already circulating online?
Timing. Starmer could set out an exit timeline as soon as Monday, but Downing Street pointed back to his Friday line that he was focused on serving the country.
Attack. Trump tied the supposed exit to immigration and energy, writing that Starmer had failed on both and adding "OPEN NORTH SEA OIL!"
Pressure. Starmer s upposedely spent the weekend weighing pressure from the Labour Party after Andy Burnham won a Parliament seat and prepared for a possible leadership challenge.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Deep In Siberia
From @Gerashchenko_en, former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.
Ukraine reportedly struck Russia's Tyumen oil refinery in Siberia, a strike so deep inside Russia that even the cautious conservative version puts it more than 2,000 km (1,200 miles) from Ukraine.
If the higher distance estimates are right, Kyiv just stretched the map again.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy detailing the weekend’s attack.
Click for video
Reach. The attack may be Ukraine's deepest strike into Russia so far, with some reporting putting the distance at about 2,500km (1,550 miles). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said upgraded Fire Point drones can now fly more than 3,000 km (1,860 miles).
Target. Tyumen's former Antipinsky refinery is one of Russia's largest independent plants, with annual capacity around 6-8 million tonnes.
Russia's governor claimed air defenses repelled the attack and the plant was not damaged.
📌 Context. Ukraine has been hitting refineries, depots, and gas sites from Crimea to Moscow. The goal is to force Russia to divert air defenses away from the front lines and increase the economic cost of sustaining the war.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Threats Meet Talks
This is reportedly the moment the Iranian delegation walked out in protest after President Trump made comments that sound like threats of kidnapping or assassination.
After Friday’s Iran–US talks in Switzerland were delayed, the US, Iran, and the mediators finally sat down and kicked off negotiations.
Delegations:
US: Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and senior adviser Jared Kushner
Iran: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
Mediators: Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir
But things didn’t exactly get off to a smooth start, with the Iranian team walking out because of President Trump's threats against the Iranian delegation. 👇🏼
The Three Threats
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaking at the annual monetary policy conference.
Click for video
During Sunday's broadcast of an annual monetary policy conference, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that Iran would will not give up its "right to [uranium] enrichment."
Response. Trump then told Fox's Trey Yingst that Pezeshkian had "better watch his mouth" and "better shape up or we'll take over the rest of the country."
Hormuz. But that's not all. Over the weekend, the IRGC also claimed it had closed the Strait of Hormuz over continued Israel-Hezbollah fighting. Trump responded by saying:
"You close it and you won't have a country... You (the Iranian delegation) won’t even make it back to your fucking country."
Hezbollah. Trump also posted that Iran must stop its proxies in Lebanon or the US would hit Iran again, harder.
The Deal Test
Mediators said lower-level technical talks will continue in Switzerland through the week, inside a 60-day process. The clearest output so far is a Lebanon deconfliction cell to “ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon.”
But the question people on social media are asking is:
“Wouldn’t all of this end if Iran stopped backing Hezbollah?”
Money. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says oil waivers, port restrictions, frozen funds, and $300+ billion reconstruction planning are already moving along.
Reception. Critics are calling Vice President Vance a liar for claiming earlier that Iran would not see a dime until it changed behavior. However, Vance supporters say that his comments only applied to the $300 billion reconstruction fund.
“So all Iran had to do to get billions was show up in Switzerland?”
📊 Poll
Simple question. Not-so-simple answer…
