More Insider Trading?

Hi Global Recap readers,

Remember when I wondered if those “rumors” about tariff exemptions for tech and the supposed “fake news confirmation” of Trump were just a way to test the waters before going all in?

I’m still not totally convinced that was the case—but a recent news drop, along with some very well-timed purchases by “someone” (or a few someones), kinda makes it look like somebody had the inside scoop.

Would you do the same? 👇️ 

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Nvidia Faces $5.5B Charge

The US government is cracking down on Nvidia's advanced AI chip, the H20, by restricting its export to China. This move will cost Nvidia $5.5 billion in charges.

But more importantly, there are signs that someone knew about this ban…

Nvidia's Troubles

Nvidia's shares dropped 6% after the US announced new licensing requirements for exporting the H20 chip to China, a key market for the company.

• The H20 is Nvidia's most advanced chip available for sale in China and is crucial to its efforts to stay engaged with China's booming AI industry.

• Chinese tech giants like Tencent, Alibaba, and TikTok parent ByteDance had been ramping up orders for the H20 chip.

Insider Trading Again?

Just like last time, there was some sketchy options activity right before the announcement dropped.

• Just hours ahead of it, some threw down $8 million on QQQ ETF puts—basically betting the Nasdaq would fall.

• But even before that, there were signs that big money was already bracing for a dip on Nvidia’s stock price, with options trades hinting at a bearish setup.

So is this more insider trading, crazy speculation, or careful hedging?

📊 Poll

Just for fun: Be real with me. If you had insider info and could trade without getting caught, would you take the shot?

I’m only sorta joking. Lately, I’ve been chatting with people who love to say, “The President should do this” or “They shouldn’t do that.” But when I flip it and ask, “Okay, what would you do if you were in that position?”—they end up saying they’d do the exact thing they’re criticizing.

So now I’m curious—what would you do?

My guess? Anyone who says “no” is probably super principled or seriously driven by ideology. Like, the kind of person who sticks to their values no matter what. As for me, I am going with “yes.” 🫠 

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Biden Blasts Trump

In a rare public speech, former President Biden slammed the Trump administration's efforts to allegedly slash Social Security benefits, warning that it would devastate millions of vulnerable Americans.

Biden's Critique

Biden accused Trump of "taking a hatchet" to the Social Security system, calling it a "sacred promise" that the government must uphold.

• He said the Trump team was "shooting first and aiming later" with its cost-cutting policies.

• Biden claimed the goal was to "wreck it so they can rob it" to fund tax cuts for the wealthy.

White House Pushback

The current White House denied that Trump planned to cut Social Security, with the press secretary insisting he would "always protect that program."

• In fact, Biden's former Democratic colleagues are divided on whether his speech was helpful or a distraction.

• Some worry it could shift attention away from the backlash against Trump's controversial tariff policies.

Biden's Declining Popularity

By the time he left office, Biden's approval rating had plummeted to near-record lows, below 40%.

• His poor debate performance against Trump last year paved the way for Kamala Harris to run and ultimately lose to the incumbent.

• Biden's speech showed signs of his advancing age, with stumbles and rambling anecdotes that concerned some Democrats.

The Fate of Social Security

So now, the it comes down to this:

Will Musk and DOGE cut Social Security like Democrats are warning, or will they leave it alone like the Trump administration keeps saying?

🇮🇱 ISRAEL
Hamas Rejects
Ceasefire, Hostage Deal

Hamas has rejected Israel's latest proposal for a ceasefire and the return of hostages, demanding the disarmament of the terror group as a condition.

Ceasefire Proposal Rejected

According to Hamas leader Abu Zuhri, "Handing over the resistance's weapons is a million red lines and is not subject to consideration, let alone discussion."

• The proposed deal reportedly included a 45-day ceasefire and the return of humanitarian aid in exchange for 11 hostages and Hamas' disarmament.

• Mediators were not confident the proposal would gain traction, as it did not include any withdrawal terms for Israel.

Hostages Still Held

The Israeli government assesses that 24 of the 59 hostages held in Gaza are still alive, including American-Israeli Edan Alexander.

• Hamas claimed it lost contact with the soldiers guarding Alexander and accused Israel of targeting his location, though provided no evidence.

• Hamas has previously made false claims about the deaths of hostages due to Israeli attacks.

Israel's Military Advances

Despite the failed ceasefire talks, Israel has continued to make military advances in Gaza, capturing new territory along the border with Egypt.

• The IDF has established a buffer zone in the southern part of the Gaza Strip, forcing hundreds of thousands of residents to evacuate.

• Israeli Defense Minister Katz said the goal is to "exert heavy pressure on Hamas" to secure the release of the hostages.

Freed Hostage's Plea

Iair Horn, a freed Israeli hostage, has called on former President Trump to intervene as a "modern Moses" to save his brother, who remains in Hamas captivity.

• Horn credits Trump for his own release and is now fighting for his brother's freedom from the "lunatics" of Hamas.

🇮🇷 IRAN
Trump Envoy U-Turn

In a surprising reversal, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff has now demanded that Iran completely eliminate its nuclear program.

This is a stark contrast from his previous stance allowing limited uranium enrichment for civilian use.

Witkoff's Shifting Positions

• Just 12 hours earlier, Witkoff had said Iran could continue enriching uranium at low levels for civilian purposes.

• Now, Witkoff says "any final arrangement must set in place a framework for peace, stability and prosperity in the Middle East—meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program."

• This sudden shift makes it much harder for the US and Iran to reach a negotiated agreement, raising the threat of military action.

• This is getting people to question whether a military was always the preferred method of engagement.

Potential Reasons for the U-Turn

While nothing’s been confirmed, a few possible reasons for the reversal are making the rounds:

1. Witkoff may be trying to distinguish between an interim deal and a final agreement that eliminates Iran's nuclear program entirely.

2. Trump may have faced backlash from Iran hawks who saw Witkoff's previous stance as too lenient and too similar to the 2015 nuclear deal.

3. This is classic Trump administration playbook—often slammed for its “erratic” and “unpredictable” approach to policymaking and diplomacy.

Iran's Reaction and Implications

• Iran has repeatedly demanded the right to maintain a civil nuclear program, so Witkoff's new position will likely cause consternation in Tehran.

• It could also strengthen Iranian hardliners who argue the US cannot be trusted.

• A rare consensus had emerged in Tehran that the talks could result in some sanctions relief, but Witkoff's shift may jeopardize that progress.

🇫🇷 FRANCE
France Expels Algerian Officials

France has kicked out 12 Algerian diplomats and consular staff in response to Algeria doing the same to some of its own.

If you’re not up to speed on the friction between these two countries, this might seem out of the blue—but there’s a long and complicated history behind it.

The Kidnapping

Amir Boukhors, a critic of the Algerian president, was allegedly kidnapped outside his home in France in 2024. He claims he was drugged and held captive for over 24 hours before being released.

• Three men, including an Algerian consular agent, were arrested and investigated for the "kidnap, holding and arbitrary detention" of Boukhors.

• Algeria has denied its official's involvement in the kidnapping and protested the arrests.

Diplomatic Fallout

The incident has sparked a full-blown diplomatic standoff between France and Algeria.

• To protest the arrests, Alegria expelled 12 French embassy staff.

• In response, France has expelled 12 Algerian officials.

• French President Macron's office said "the Algerian authorities are responsible for the sudden degradation of our bilateral relations."

Context

For anyone unfamiliar with the backstory, this clash is just the latest flare-up in a long, tense relationship between France and its former colony, Algeria.

Things got even more tense last year when Macron threw his support behind Morocco in the ongoing dispute over Western Sahara—a move that didn’t sit well with Algiers.

Calls for Writer's Release

Adding to the tensions, Macron has also called on Algeria to release Boualem Sansal, a 75-year-old writer sentenced to five years in prison for "undermining the integrity" of the country.