Hi Global Recap readers,
I swear, after all this, I'm never using the word "deal" in my personal life again.
🇨🇺🇺🇸 CUBA & US
Havana Arms Up
Cuba is reportedly handing out weapons to civilians as officials warn people to be ready for a potential confrontation with the US.
Signal. Officials have reportedly circulated guides for dealing with “military aggression,” increasingly framing US pressure as something that could escalate into a direct threat.
Caveat. This claim appears to trace through Venezuelan media and reposts, so it should be read as reported mobilization, not independently confirmed mass arming.
Precedent. It's interesting because Venezuela made a similar move last year, when its army posted video of soldiers handing rifles to civilians amid US pressure. Then we all know that on Jan. 3, US forces captured President Maduro and his wife.
Will history repeat itself?
🇮🇷🇮🇱 IRAN & ISRAEL
Fighting Three
Fronts at Once
Missiles over Israel
Israel is now dealing with missile fire from Iran and Yemen after its Beirut strike on Hezbollah, complicating US President Trump's Iran talks.
But this is far more nuanced that this short summary paragraph. 👇🏼
Sequence of Events
As part of the retaliation, Israeli Air Force struck several targets at the petrochemical complex in Mahshahr.
Additionally, large explosion near Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran were reported.
Lebanon's Hezbollah fired at northern Israel (during an agreed ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel).
Israel said it intercepted 2 projectiles before retaliating with strikes on Hezbollah command centers in Beirut’s Dahiyeh district.
Iran then initially launched 4 waves of ballistic missiles at northern Israel, saying it was retaliating for the Beirut strikes.
Around the same time, the Houthis also fired toward Israel, triggering sirens across Tel Aviv and areas near Jerusalem.
Israel later carried out strikes on military targets in western and central Iran.
Iran then carried out additional missile launches and warned of further retaliation.
President Trump said that he is going to ask Netanyahu not to attack Iran further.
Trump's Dilemma
According to Fox News's Trey Yingst, Trump's message to Iran was:
"You've shot your missiles. That's enough. Get back to the table and make a deal."
He also added that he was unhappy with Israel's Beirut strike.
But here's the thing that critics of Trump (and even his supporters) are pointing out: Why isn't Israel allowed to retaliate, while Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen are all attacking Israel?
In fact, when asked why the US was striking Iranian military targets after Iran attacked US forces, Secretary of State Rubio in Rome said:
“Only stupid countries don’t shoot back when you’re shot at.”
This clip is resurfacing, leading many critics to accuse the US of hypocrisy and weakness.
Click for video
So people are rightfully asking: why isn't Israel allowed to retaliate? And why is Trump so hell-bent on getting a “deal” that, to many, it ends up looking like he's appeasing a terrorist regime?
Analysis
This seems to pretty much puts into words what many are feeling right now.
The only thing I'd add is that, unless President Trump is playing some kind of long game with a master plan (such as waiting for the perfect moment to strike), it looks like the US is mainly focused on avoiding a shock to the global oil market ahead of the midterms.
Beyond that, I struggle to see why the US would be bending over backwards to stop Israel from retaliating after Israel had just been hit by ballistic missiles from Iran.
Open Questions
This is a genuine question I've been asking myself.
Sure, if Trump manages to get a deal with Iran, that's a win for what he's trying to achieve. But what is a deal on paper worth if there's no credible way to enforce it?
If Iran signs on and then later ignores it, what exactly do they lose? They'd basically be back where they are today—firing missiles at their neighbors while the US argues that it's a justified response to something else.
So what is the downside for Iran? What do they actually have to lose by sticking with the status quo?
Questions like these are part of why I’m considering moving the newsletter to another platform. It’d be MUCH easier to discuss them in the comments than for me to reply to dozens of emails.
Stay tuned.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Chernobyl Hit Again
A heavily damaged nuclear storage facility in the Chornobyl exclusion zone after a Russian attack
Ukraine says a Russian Shahed-type drone struck the reception building of a spent nuclear fuel storage facility near Chernobyl.
But there's no radiation leak.
Damage. Ukraine's nuclear operator said the building was partly destroyed, but no spent fuel containers were inside at the time. A fire of about 40 square meters (430 square feet) was extinguished, and no injuries were reported.
Monitor. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Ukraine briefed it on significant damage near stored nuclear material, including to its safeguards office, and its team found radiation levels normal.
Pattern. The strike came after a Feb. 2025 drone hit Chernobyl's old containment arch.
🇨🇳🇹🇼 CHINA & TAIWAN
Coast Guard Expels
Taiwan's coast guard said it expelled 4 Chinese government ships from restricted waters southwest of Taiwan on June 7 after both sides traded radio warnings over China's new "maritime traffic law enforcement" push.
Move. Taiwan said 7 coast guard vessels responded after the Chinese ships, including 3 coast guard vessels, entered waters about 30 nautical miles (35 miles / 56 km) southwest of Taiwan's southern tip.
Claim. China framed the operation east of Taiwan as "lawful traffic enforcement" after Japan and the Philippines moved toward maritime boundary talks in nearby waters.
Pushback. Taiwan's coast guard said China has no sovereign rights east of Taiwan, and Defense Minister Wellington Koo called the patrols provocative.
