🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA
Australia Rejects
Syria Repatriation
Family members of suspected ISIS terrorists who are Austrlaian nationals
Australia says it will not help bring home 34 women and children tied to ISIS from a detention camp in Syria after a planned flight collapsed over paperwork.
Trigger. On Monday, February 16, 2026, Syrian authorities stopped 34 Australian citizens from 11 families from leaving Syria and sent them back to Roj detention camp (in Syria).
It cited "procedural problems" with the departure process.
The group had been expected to fly from Syria to Australia.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Stance. Speaking Tuesday in Melbourne, Australian PM Albanese said, "We’re providing absolutely no support and we are not repatriating people."
He added, "You make your bed, you lie in it," arguing there should be no sympathy for people who traveled overseas to join the ISIS project of a self-declared Islamic caliphate.
Albanese also said that if members of the group reach Australia without government help, they could face charges.
📌 Context. Roj camp in northeastern Syria is one of several sites holding families linked to suspected Islamic State militants after the group’s defeat, leaving governments to choose between repatriation and long-term detention abroad.
Australia has treated return as a national security issue, with limited past repatriations and an explicit willingness to prosecute unlawful travel.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE
Zelenskyy Rejects
Donbas Handover
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
In a Tuesday interview, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Ukrainians will not accept a peace deal built on unilateral withdrawal from the eastern Donbas and gifting territory to Russia.
He said any agreement would have to survive a referendum, and a Donbas handover would be voted down.
Redline. Zelenskyy argued that asking Ukraine to abandon sovereignty and the citizenship of people living in the Donbas would leave lasting damage, saying people "will never forgive this."
That said, he said the US and Ukraine agree any deal must go to voters.
Talks. His comments landed as Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met in Geneva for a third round of direct talks, with Donbas control the central dispute.
Zelenskyy said roughly 10% of the Donbas remains in Ukrainian hands.
Russia insists it will take the entire region either through negotiations or force.
Plan. Zelenskyy described a US idea for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the Donbas areas they still hold and for that territory to become a demilitarized "free economic zone."
He said he could discuss withdrawal only if Russia pulls back the same distance, and he rejected Russia’s claim to sovereignty over any such zone.
He also raised the possibility of new presidential elections alongside a referendum.
However, he called Russia’s reported offer of only a one-day ceasefire to hold a national vote unrealistic.
Pressure. Zelenskyy also criticized President Trump for repeatedly pressing Ukraine, not Russia, to make concessions, and warned that peace cannot mean "to give victory" to President Putin.
Contention
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (left), US President Donald Trump (center) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (right).
This last point is exactly where opinions diverge.
One side argues that Trump is being unfair by pressuring Ukraine more than Russia.
The other side says this is the only realistic, practical approach, and that expecting perfect fairness is idealistic and doesn’t reflect how war works.
Those who oppose Trump’s approach counter that unified international support for Ukraine can strengthen Ukraine’s leverage in negotiations and diplomacy. However, supporters respond that although this may be true, this kind of unity could also raise the risk of a wider war.
In short: It’s a complex debate built around hypotheticals, with no clear or straightforward outcome.
🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES
More US Missiles, Manila
A Typhon missile system during an exercise.
The United States says it will deploy additional missile and other weapon systems to the Philippines to deter China in the South China Sea.
Announcement. On Feb. 17, 2026, the US and Philippine officials said they plan to increase deployments of US "cutting-edge missile and unmanned systems" to the Philippines, explicitly tying the move to deterrence in the South China Sea.
Alliance. Senior US and Philippine officials met in Manila this week for their annual alliance talks and put the 1951 mutual-defense treaty front and center, stressing it applies to armed attacks on either side’s forces, aircraft, and vessels.
Precedent. For those who think this is a sudden escalation, note that this is not starting from zero:
The US Army brought the Typhon missile system to a base in the northern Philippines in 2024 and kept it there after joint exercises.
US Marines deployed the shorter-range antiship launcher called Nmesis to another Philippine island close to Taiwan last year.
🇮🇷 IRAN
Nuclear Talks
Find Baseline
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (left) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (right)
Iran says it and the US agreed on the main "guiding principles" for resolving the nuclear dispute after indirect talks in Geneva, but the hard parts are still ahead: redlines.
However, many critics are not convinced, calling this a typical stalling tactic by both the US and Iran.
Talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emerged from the Feb. 17 meeting in Geneva saying the sides had reached an understanding on core principles, while stressing more work is needed.
Oman mediated again, with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi describing "good progress" toward shared goals and the technical issues that decide whether any deal is real.
Scope.
Iran had signaled it wanted to keep the agenda tight: its nuclear program and possible relief from US economic sanctions.
The US has also indicated it wants other files on the table, including Iran's missile development, and neither side publicly laid out how far Tuesday's talks wandered beyond the nuclear lane.
💭 Thoughts. If I had to bet how these talks about collapse, my guess is that it will be over a mismatch in expectations: the US will push to expand the agenda, while Iran will insist on keeping it limited.
Lincoln carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea in February.
Pressure. This round happened under open military threats and a visible US force posture in the region, which Iran has answered with its own displays, including an IRGC maritime drill in the Strait of Hormuz.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pushed back rhetorically, warning the US not to try to predetermine outcomes and hinting that carriers are vulnerable targets.
Signals. US Vice President JD Vance said the talks were mixed, noting agreement to meet again but also saying the president had set "red lines" that Iran is not yet willing to accept.
President Trump, speaking earlier, framed Iran as motivated by fear of consequences and pointed to last summer's US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites as a reminder of what he claims happens when diplomacy fails.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while acknowledging a diplomatic opening, described any agreement as "very difficult," which is code for long negotiations and a high chance of talks collapsing over verification, timelines, and enforcement.
