Hi Global Recap readers,
For days now, rumors have been circulating that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba, repeatedly traveled to the UK for impotence treatment.
I didn’t write about it at first because, on its own, it didn’t seem especially politically important.
But with the rumors multiplying, and now US intel seemingly adding to the picture, it’s hard not to look at what this might mean for the cleric-versus-IRGC power struggle inside Iran’s ruling elite. 👇🏼
🇮🇷 IRAN
All Makes Sense Now
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (left) and US President Donald Trump (right).
TLDR:
^ First there were rumors that Mojtaba Khamenei had traveled to the UK for impotence treatment.
^ Then came claims that clerics were unhappy about him not having children.
^ Now there’s a report that Trump was briefed on an intelligence claim that Mojtaba may be gay.
^ Suddenly, those earlier “impotence” rumors land a little differently.
Details
Claim. President Trump was reportedly briefed last week on intelligence that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may be gay. It says the information was treated as credible inside US spy agencies, not as a planted smear.
Reaction. Trump was stunned and laughed out loud when he heard it. It also says others in the room joined in.
This is highly ironic for the new Supreme Leader because homosexuality is illegal in Iran. And Islamic terrorist groups like ISIS are well known for throwing gay men off buildings.
On top of that, his father, the late Supreme Leader, supposedly preferred a different successor because of Mojtaba's "personal life" issues.
Politics
Medical. A 2008 diplomatic cable said Mojtaba married relatively late, was treated in London for impotence, and needed repeated visits before his wife became pregnant. This doesn't "prove" the homosexuality allegations, but it certainly makes the rumor look less like it came from nowhere.
Late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (left), Major General Hossein Salami (middle), and IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani (right). More on stories about Qaani in the future… IYKYK
Clerics vs IRGC. There were rumors about tension between the clerics and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), regarding the choice for the new Supreme Leader.
Clerics. It has been reported that senior clerics had reservations about Mojtaba. Senior clerics, unlike the IRGC, cares more about religious standing. So a personal allegation like this can weaken support.
IRGC. The IRGC plays by a different rulebook. It is less focused on private morality and more focused on whether he can hold the system together during a war, a succession fight, and whatever comes next. This probably explains their reported push to get Mojtaba elected.
All of this points to growing fractures within Iran’s ruling elite.
🇪🇺 EUROPE
Europe Says No
Vice President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas
TLDR:
^ Trump wants European help securing the Strait of Hormuz.
^ EU foreign ministers met in Brussels and basically shut that down.
^ Germany and Luxembourg were even blunter about staying out.
^ Oil is rising, but Europe still says, "not NATO terriroty, is not our war."
Details
Pushback. Trump spent the weekend pressing European countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz after Iran largely blocked it following US and Israeli airstrikes. By Monday, EU foreign ministers had met in Brussels and made clear they were not signing up for that.
Mandate. One idea was to widen the EU naval mission Aspides so European warships could patrol the strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Vice President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas, said ministers wanted to strengthen the mission in general, but not change its mandate to send ships there.
She said "nobody wants to go actively in this war" and called it not Europe's war, even while saying European interests were still on the line.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius
Click for video
Berlin. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it more bluntly.
He said the Americans and Israelis chose this path and stressed Germany's job was defending NATO territory.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz also knocked down the idea of using NATO here, saying the alliance is defensive, not interventionist.
Limits. Luxembourg's Xavier Bettel said his country would not give in to "blackmail" from Washington.
NATO diplomats also said a full alliance mission looks unlikely.
This is because unanimous backing probably is not there and because the US has not formally asked through NATO channels so far.
🇨🇺 CUBA
Trump: I Can Do Anything
Trump talking about Cuba at the Oval Office on Monday
Click for video
TLDR:
^ Trump said he could "do anything I want" with Cuba.
^ He also said he'd have the honor of taking it "in some form."
^ That threat landed while the US and Cuba were already in talks.
^ Cuba's grid collapsed the same day, after months without oil.
Details
Talk. Trump ramped up his language on March 16, saying he might "free" Cuba or "take" it and that he could do whatever he wanted with the island.
Timing. This came while the two countries had already opened talks to try to ease one of the worst stretches in their relationship in decades.
Pressure. Cuba is in a terrible economic crisis, and the squeeze got worse after Venezuelan oil shipments stopped due to US intervention.
The country says it hasn't received an oil shipment in three months.
As a result, severe energy rationing have stalled the economy and pushed people to protest in the streets.
Anti-government protesters in Cuba attack Communist party office in Moron on Saturday, March 14.
Collapse. On Monday, Cuba's national electric grid failed, leaving the island's 10 million people without power.
Standoff. A report also said US negotiators want Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel out, though Cuban officials have long treated outside interference as a deal-breaker. So the talks are still happening, but with the pressure coming from its own people and Washington, it'll be interesting to see how this crisis progresses in the coming weeks.
📌 Context. US presidents have spent decades opposing Cuba’s Communist government, but Washington has also stuck to its promise not to invade the island since the 1962 missile crisis deal with the Soviet Union.
Of course, the Soviet Union is long gone, so does that deal even still count? And at this point, does anyone even need an actual invasion when diplomatic pressure and a blockade can do the work instead?
