Hi Global Recap readers,
This is how you know that people are tuning out.
Even after Trump latest bombshell announcement, the stock market didn’t rocket up the way it did when the Iran-US ceasefire was announced.
In fact, the indices were mixed on the day.
Is getting the market used to all this back-and-forth part of Trump's plan?
Or has the tinfoil just been sitting a little too close to my head lately as I try to make sense of all this? 👇🏼
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Strike Pause
President Donald Trump said he had called off a US attack on Iran planned for Tuesday after Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE asked for "two or three days" for talks, while warning the military could still launch a large-scale assault if no deal emerges.
What We Know:
The pause follows 11 weeks since the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and nearly 6 weeks after an April ceasefire.
Talks still hinge on Iran's nuclear limits, sanctions relief, proxy support, and the Strait of Hormuz, where rival restrictions have hit energy markets.
Trump later said there was a "very good chance" of reaching a nuclear deal without bombing Iran.
Frustration
Understandably, some people seem to be getting fed up with President Trump’s constant flip-flopping.
Among them is Nioh Berg, a prominent Iranian monarchist advocate, who argues that every extra day the US gives the Islamic regime breathing room means more Iranians end up executed.
Here’s a Amnesty International report showing that executions in Iran more than doubled in 2025.
But later, Nioh states that this might be a strategic delay.
💭 If I had to bet on 1 tinfoil theory, it’d be this: maybe Trump’s trying to make his threats feel cheap and repetitive until everyone drops their guard (like before Khamenei was killed earlier this year).
But who knows.
Mocking Trump
Meanwhile, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officer Mohsen Rezaee hopped on X to mock Trump for constantly moving the goalposts on his own red lines and deadlines.
Provocation
Not only that, Iran’s self-described Persian Gulf Strait Authority opened an official X account and declared unauthorized Strait of Hormuz passage “illegal.”
Ships seeking passage have reportedly been told to provide ownership, insurance, crew, cargo, and routing details before a permit is issued.
In other words, they are asserting that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control.
💭 THOUGHTS
I Get It
A quick rundown of everything that’s gone down over the past two months.
One quick note before we move on: I totally get why Nioh is frustrated here.
Many who are frustrated by all this seem worried that history is repeating itself.
After years of watching appeasement, delays, mixed signals, and wishful thinking lead to failure, they don’t want to see the same mistakes play out all over again.
That’s why we started the Searching History podcast: to slow these stories down, dig into the history behind them, figure out how we got here, and think through what might happen next.
Click above 👆🏼
🇨🇳🇺🇸 CHINA & US
Xi Tests Putin
US President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right).
Xi Jinping told Donald Trump that Vladimir Putin may end up regretting the invasion of Ukraine, according to "several people familiar" with the matter).
What Changed:
Xi reportedly made the remark during last week's Beijing summit with Trump.
That said, Trump also suggested the US, China, and Russia should cooperate against the International Criminal Court.
None of these three countries are full ICC members. Which makes sense—why would a global superpower want to tie itself down to an international court?
Although, the White House fact sheet on the summit did not mention Putin, Ukraine, or the ICC.
Putin is planned to Xi in China from May 19-20.
But it must be noted that China still hasn't broken with Moscow. It keeps buying Russian energy and has been accused by the US of helping Russia sustain the war through dual-use trade.
📌 Context. Putin launched the full-scale invasion 3 weeks after he and Xi declared a "no-limits" partnership in February 2022.
🇨🇦🇺🇸 CANADA & US
Defense Rift Widens
US Under Secretary of War for Policy, Elbridge Colby.
The Pentagon paused US participation in a joint Canada-US defense board, with US Under Secretary of War for Policy, Elbridge Colby, accusing Canada of weak follow-through on defense spending and pointing at PM Mark Carney's argument that "middle powers" need less reliance on hegemons.
What Changed:
The Permanent Joint Board on Defense dates back to 1940 and helped shape continental defense cooperation, including NORAD advice.
Canada says it has reached NATO's 2% GDP defense benchmark and pledged 3.5% core defense spending by 2035.
The board is consultative, but old: it helped shape continental defense and later NORAD planning.
The fight lands as Canada is already deepening Arctic defense ties with Nordic states.
