Reacting to "Liberation"

Hi Global Recap readers,

Alright, buckle up—Trump’s “Liberation Day” is here, and it’s got the world scrambling to react.

I know because I was watching it unfold alongside the live S&P 500 futures chart—it laid out everything about the volatility ahead.

Why do I look at the charts? Because it tells a story. It shows what people are feeling at the moment.

As the renowned economist Benjamin Graham said:

(Sorry, today’s email is a bit later than usual because I was digesting the implications of the Liberation Day!)

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Liberation Day

What’s the Deal?

Trump delayed “Liberation Day” from April 1 to avoid any “April Fool” jokes.

• The base tariffs go into effect on April 5 and the higher reciprocal rates on April 9.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the calm voice, pushing for targeted tariffs.

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is all about going big with blanket tariffs.

• Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, is hyped for the tariff strategy.

Initial Reaction

The moment Trump walked in and mentioned a 10% base tariff on all countries, the market rallied.

Why?

1. It was already priced in.

2. It suggested Trump might go easy on tariffs to avoid a market selloff and keep the shaky economy from tipping over.

But Then…

Things took a turn for the worse when Trump pulled out a table supposedly showing all the tariff rates other countries were imposing on the US.

You are looking at over a trillion dollars being wiped out in about 5 minutes.

Problem

But there’s a problem with Trump’s table. This is not actually the tariffs being “charged” by these countries.

These figures were calculated using the formula of “trade deficit/imports", which is a very liberal interpretation of the word “tariff.”

There are many more details about tariffs, including arguments from supporters regarding outlier tariffs of a few hundred percent. But of course, I can’t write a dissertation here…

Lying or Unaware?

Here, the White House Deputy Press Secretary Desai commented on James Surowiecki’s calculations using the formula of “trade deficit / imports,” claiming he is wrong.

However, it turns out that Desai is wrong.

Here’s Desai’s claim:

Here’s Surowiecki’s response:

So is Desai lying or just unaware?

Reaction

As a result, China now faces a total tariff of 54%. The 34% you see above is on top of the existing 20%.

• China is now urging the US to immediately cancel the tariffs, vowing counter measures.

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the move “immense” and vowed a unified EU response.

• South Korea’s acting president said the global trade war “has become a reality.”

Thoughts

If you’ve been reading Global Recap for a while, you know I’m not exactly a fan of tariffs. That said, I’ve also pushed back on the idea that Trump’s aides—like Scott Bessent—are “idiots,” as some critics claim.

Every administration deserves a chance to “let them cook,” so to speak. I still believe the US is trying to push yields down, among other things, but we’ll have to wait and see how this all unfolds.

Watch out for those who blindly accept the "tariff rate" table as fact or automatically praise everything Trump does. Every leader’s actions should be scrutinized, no matter your political stance.

Take border security, for example—the Trump administration deserves full credit for achieving the lowest border crossing rate since 2000, the earliest year with available data.

Just my two cents.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
TikTok Bid

I think most people have forgotten about the TikTok sales deadline of April 5—have you?

Now, as the clock continues to tick for TikTok, bidders are scrambling to secure the app before the April 5 deadline, with Amazon and OnlyFans founder Tim Stokely entering the bid too.

OnlyFans..?

Context

TikTok faces a US ban unless it finds a non-Chinese buyer by April 5.

• The app’s Chinese ownership has raised national security concerns in Washington.

• ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, must divest its US operations to comply with a 2024 law.

Amazon’s Surprise Move

Amazon has jumped into the competition with a last-minute bid.

• It aims to expand its social media footprint, following past acquisitions like Twitch and Goodreads.

• But don’t get too excited—reports say other parties involved are skeptical of Amazon’s bid and aren’t taking it seriously.

OnlyFans

Tim Stokely, founder of OnlyFans, has partnered with a cryptocurrency foundation to make a play for TikTok.

• Stokely’s startup, Zoop, is leading the bid.

• The consortium is one of several groups vying for TikTok’s US operations.

Other Contenders

Private equity firms and venture capitalists are also in the mix.

• Blackstone is in talks to join ByteDance’s non-Chinese shareholders in a bid.

• Andreessen Horowitz is exploring funding options to support a bid led by Oracle and other US investors.

What’s Next?

TikTok’s future—an app used by nearly half of all Americans—is hanging in the balance.

• The White House is considering plans to spin off a US entity for TikTok.

• Chinese ownership in the new entity would be diluted to below 20%, as required by US law.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
More B-2 Bombers
Seen

Previously, we’ve reported on a satellite photo of the Diego Garcia base showing 3 B-2 stealth bombers.

Now, a new satellite photo has been revealed, showing at least six B-2 stealth bombers stationed.

Why It Matters

This deployment is unusual and significant, signaling a potential escalation in the region.

• Diego Garcia now hosts nearly a third of the US’s nuclear-capable B-2 fleet.

• The bombers are rarely stationed abroad in such numbers.

• The move comes as the US intensifies airstrikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Context

The US has ramped up its campaign against the Houthis, targeting both personnel and infrastructure.

• Over 200 strikes have been conducted since mid-March.

• Recent strikes near Hodeida reportedly killed four people.

• The Houthis claim to have downed a US drone and continue to attack US warships.

🇵🇸 PALESTINE
Family Executes
Hamas Gunman

An unusual act of vigilante justice just happened in Gaza, where a prominent family clan executed a Hamas gunman who had killed one of their relatives.

The Incident

In Deir al-Balah, Abdulrahman Sha’aban Abu Samra was shot dead by a Hamas militant while waiting in line for flour.

Hours later, members of the Abu Samra family took matters into their own hands.

• The family paraded the gunman through the streets before executing him at point-blank range.

• The incident was caught on camera and widely shared on social media.

Growing Civilian Anger

This act of revenge shows the growing frustration among Gaza’s civilians toward Hamas.

• Protests have erupted across Gaza, with demonstrators chanting “Stop the war” and “Hamas out.”

• Some protesters waved white flags, a rare sight in a region where dissent is often met with harsh crackdowns.

Hamas’ Silence

Hamas has yet to comment on the execution, but its grip on Gaza is clearly being tested.

• Reports suggest that Hamas has been cracking down on criticism, even resorting to violence against protesters.

• The execution and protests underscore the mounting tensions in the war-torn region.

🇲🇲 MYANMAR
Ceasefire Amid
Earthquake Devastation

Myanmar’s already fragile existence was recently shattered even more after a massive earthquake claimed over 3,000 lives, forcing the military to pause its civil war.

Earthquake’s Toll

The 7.7 magnitude quake struck last Friday.

• Now, the death toll has risen to over 3,000 people, with more than 4,500 injured.

• Thousands of buildings collapsed, bridges crumbled, and roads buckled.

• Entire communities are cut off from electricity, water, and communication.

Ceasefire Announcement

The military’s ceasefire, announced on state TV, will last until April 22.

• Resistance groups had already declared unilateral ceasefires earlier this week.

• The military warned it would respond if attacked during this period.

Dramatic Rescues

Amid the devastation, there have been glimmers of hope.

• Rescuers pulled four survivors from the rubble, including a hotel worker trapped for 121 hours.

• International teams from Turkey, Malaysia, and China are aiding in search efforts.

It seems like natural disasters really do bring people closer.

Humanitarian Crisis

However, it is important to note that even before the quake, things were not looking too great in the country.

The earthquake has worsened an already dire situation in Myanmar.

• Over 3 million people were displaced before the quake due to civil war.

• Nearly 20 million are in urgent need of aid, including food, water, and medical supplies.

Remember this viral video of a woman dancing and accidentally capturing the coup happening in real time?

International Aid

Countries like India, China, and the US have pledged millions in assistance.

• Specialist teams are setting up field hospitals and providing critical supplies.

• The US has committed $2 million in emergency aid.