Russia Jets Enter

Hi Global Recap readers,

Do you feel like reading about numerous Russian incursions, war-related protests, and mounting casualties leaves you feeling desensitized?

• I certainly feel myself slipping into that trap, which may be exactly what Putin wants.

• I came across a comment today, suggesting Russia’s constant provocations and stress tests of NATO are meant to desensitize the US and signal to Iran and China that the West is a paper tiger—encouraging China to strike Taiwan without facing serious Western pushback.

Do you think that’s why Russia just entered Estonian airspace? 👇️ 

🇪🇪🇷🇺 ESTONIA & RUSSIA
Russian Jets Enter Estonia

Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets just violated Estonia's airspace for 12 minutes on Friday, flying roughly 9 km into NATO territory before Italian F-35s forced them out.

• Timing: The incursion happened near Vaindloo Island, about 100 km from Tallinn, with no flight plans, transponders off, and zero contact with air traffic control.

• Pattern: It came only 10 days after over 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, part of what NATO officials say is a deliberate test of alliance readiness.

• Response: Estonia summoned Russia's top diplomat, lodged a formal protest, and triggered NATO's Article 4 consultations for collective threat assessment.

• Backdrop: The breach followed the end of Russia-Belarus "Zapad-2025" drills, which included rehearsals for nuclear weapon launches.

• Allies: Ukraine called the move an "unacceptable destabilization," while Lithuania urged NATO to deploy more air defenses to its eastern flank.

🇰🇵 NORTH KOREA
North Korea Tests AI Drones

Kim Jong-un unveiled two Geumseong-series kamikaze drones, modeled after Israeli and Russian designs, and hinted they now carry basic AI to spot and learn target shapes.

• Design: One drone mimics Israel’s HAROP with manta-ray wings, the other mirrors Russia’s Lancet-3 and Israel’s HERO 30 with a cross-shaped frame.

• Footage: State media aired unpixelated clips of both drones slamming into a US Stryker vehicle and a concrete building, marking the first public use of the Geumseong name.

• Directive: Kim ordered “primary efforts” to push AI integration in unmanned systems, calling drones a growing force in modern warfare.

• Assessment: Analysts link the push to lessons from Russia’s Ukraine drone operations and North Korea’s own 2022 incursion into Seoul’s Yongsan district.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Trump Slaps Visa Fee

President Donald Trump signed a proclamation to charge $100,000 for every H-1B visa application, a program long used to bring in highly skilled foreign workers.

So, who pays it? US companies.

• Amount: The new $100,000 charge stacks on top of the existing, much lower application fee that employers already pay.

• Target: The H-1B program mainly benefits tech firms hiring talent from countries like India and China for roles they say are hard to fill domestically.

• Video: Listen to Will Scharf reading the contents of the executive order. He makes a good point that this isn’t about punishing US companies, but to ensure that the foreign workers they are bringing in are “actually very highly skilled and that they are not replaceable by American workers.”

• Rationale: But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick struck a sharper tone, arguing the fee would pressure companies to train recent US graduates rather than rely on imported labor.

• Response: However, many critics argue this measure restricts the free labor market, favoring nationality over skill—an extension of DEI that prioritizes immutable traits instead of merit. Conversely, supporters believe that it is only natural for US companies to prioritize Americans over foreigners.

🇫🇷 FRANCE
France Recognizes Palestine

Emmanuel Macron will formally recognize a Palestinian state on Monday at a UN conference in New York, co-chaired with Saudi Arabia, framing it as a decisive step toward reviving a two-state solution while the war in Gaza rages.

• Timing: Macron announced the decision in July, arguing there is no time to wait as Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza City escalates.

• Support: The UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Malta, Belgium, and Luxembourg are expected to follow France’s lead in the coming days.

• Condition: France insists statehood must include dismantling Hamas, echoing a July Arab League declaration that Hamas hand over weapons to the Palestinian Authority.

• Backlash: Israel and the US accuse Macron of rewarding Hamas, while France’s Jewish council calls it “a moral failing” amid rising antisemitism.

• Domestic: The move splits French politics, with left-wing parties celebrating and far-right leader Marine Le Pen accusing Macron of electoral opportunism.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 CHINA & UNITED STATES
Trump Xi Plan Talks

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to meet in South Korea in six weeks, aiming to juggle a trade war, a TikTok ownership fight, and pressure on Russia over Ukraine.

• Call: The two leaders spoke for nearly two hours today, their second conversation since Trump returned to the White House.

• TikTok: Trump extended ByteDance’s deadline to sell TikTok’s US assets until December, after Congress passed a law mandating the split or a ban. The original deadline was January 2025.

• Leverage: China has used rare earth export controls, AI chip probes, and soybean purchase freezes to counter US tariffs and sanctions.

• Travel: Trump will visit China early next year, with Xi planning a US trip “at an appropriate time.”

• Economy: China’s economy faces deflation, youth unemployment, and a property crisis, yet it has offset US export losses by boosting trade with Southeast Asia and Africa.