Signals Before Strikes

Hi Global Recap readers,

I initially held the story below (the failed vote) until there were clearer signs Trump might be considering ground strikes in Venezuela. Today might be that moment.

And even if strikes don’t come soon, Trump has boxed himself in.

• After the calls, threats, and military posturing, doing nothing risks Maduro and his circle chalking it up to weakness.

• And “weak” is the last label Trump (or any leader) wants.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
House Dodges War Powers

On Dec. 17, the House voted down two War Powers Resolutions that would have required congressional authorization to continue U.S. hostilities within or against Venezuela and against any presidentially designated terrorist organizations in the Western Hemisphere. This means more leverage for President Trump, for now.

• Measures:

  • H.Con.Res.61 (Meeks): The House rejected it, which would have directed the President to pull U.S. forces out of hostilities with presidentially designated terrorist organizations in the Western Hemisphere,

  • H.Con.Res.64 (McGovern): This would have directed removal of U.S. forces from hostilities within or against Venezuela unless Congress authorized them.

• Votes: H.Con.Res.61 failed 210–216 (Roll Call 345). H.Con.Res.64 failed 211–213 (Roll Call 346).

• Backdrop: The votes landed right after Trump publicly ordered what he called a “TOTAL AND COMPLETE” blockade of U.S.-sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, a move legal experts are debating because traditional blockades can be treated as acts of war under international law.

• Weekend: This is all happening as we head into the weekend, with markets closed. And when asked by a reporter, Trump made it sound like he might be planning a ground strike soon.

  • Now, there are reports that he is scheduled to make yet another announcement tomorrow.

  • It might be a nothing burger, but given how unpredictable he can be, you can’t be too cautious.

🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA
Car Rammed:
Stopping Another
Possible Attack

Days after the horrific Bondi Beach terrorist attack against a Jewish community, New South Wales (NSW) Police intercepted two cars in Liverpool, Sydney, after receiving intelligence that a possible warrant level “violent act” might be in motion. Seven men, believed to have traveled in a convoy from Victoria, were detained and questioned as investigators weighed what they actually intended to do.

• Trigger: NSW Police say they moved after receiving information that a violent act was possibly being planned, and they chose to intervene early.

• Stop: Officers conducted a high-risk vehicle stop on two cars in Liverpool, near George and Campbell streets, with footage indicating at least one vehicle was rammed by police during the operation.

• People: Seven men were detained and, as of official police messaging, were “assisting police with their inquiries.”

• Evidence: Police reported no firearms were found, though Deputy Commissioner David Hudson indicated there may have been a knife.

• Link: NSW Police said they had not identified any connection to the current Bondi terror attack investigation, while Hudson separately described no “definitive links,” only possible shared “extremist Islamic ideology.”

🇧🇾 BELARUS
Oreshnik Lands in Belarus

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says Russia has deployed the nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to Belarus, with the hardware arriving Wednesday and moving onto “combat duty” right after. The timing is notable, as Russia talks peace while putting new missiles closer to NATO’s front yard.

• Timing: Lukashenko made the claim on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, saying the system arrived the day before. He offered no numbers and no locations, which is its own kind of message.

• Weapon: Oreshnik is described as an intermediate-range ballistic missile system that can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. Russia first showed it off in combat with a conventional strike in Ukraine in November 2024. Remember these?

• Claims: Putin has argued it is “impossible to intercept,” and Russian messaging has leaned hard on speed and unpredictability, including the fact that you cannot tell what warhead it carries until it arrives.

• Backdrop: This stacks onto an earlier Russian move, placing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, a country that already served as a launchpad for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

• Tradeoff: Lukashenko has also been trying to thaw relations with Washington, including releasing 123 political prisoners, among them Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, alongside partial U.S. sanctions relief tied to Belarus’s potash sector.

🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION
EU Budget Backs Ukraine

E.U. leaders agreed to raise a €90bn loan for Ukraine for 2026–27, borrowing on capital markets and leaning on the E.U.’s own budget after they could not unify around the plan to use frozen Russian state funds. The most loaded word in all of this is reparations, because it is now the condition for who pays the bill and when.

• Trigger: E.U. capitals have spent months arguing over whether to anchor support for Kyiv in about €210bn of immobilized Russian sovereign assets, most held in Belgium via Euroclear (a Belgium-based financial market infrastructure group). That approach stalled when member states would not sign up to the risk-sharing agreement Belgium demanded.

• Deal: After long talks in Brussels, leaders settled on raising €90bn on capital markets, with the loan backed by unused capacity in the E.U.’s shared budget. This means it's not Russia’s cash, but E.U.'s that is the immediate backstop.

• Risk: Draft language circulated among EU leaders included “uncapped” guarantees to cover potential damages for Belgium and other countries holding frozen Russian assets if Russia succeeds in court, and mechanisms to address financial retaliation (e.g., asset seizures), but several capitals resisted an open-ended backstop.

• Terms: President of the European Council, António Costa, said Ukraine will repay only once Russia pays reparations, and the E.U. reserves the right to use immobilized Russian assets to repay the loan if Russia does not pay.