Spy Colonel Shot

Hi Global Recap readers,

Just when you thought the tariff drama was over and the stock market was hitting record highs, President Trump is ramping up new tariff threats, just like he did in April.

• But is this round really the same, or are other countries ready to play tougher this time?

• We’ll dig into the hints and implications in today’s Deep Dive. 👇️ 

🌐 WORLD
Fast Scroll News

🇬🇧 UK Sends Migrants Back. Britain and France just launched a pilot deal to return some illegal migrants back to France, starting in a few weeks.

• This is a so-called “one in, one out” plan. For every migrant the UK returns, it agrees to take in one vetted asylum seeker from France.

• The move aims to curb the 21,000 arrivals so far this year (up 56%).

• Macron calls it a “deterrence” strategy.

🇺🇦 Spy Colonel Shot Dead. Someone gunned down Ukrainian intelligence officer Ivan Voronych in a Kyiv parking lot on July 10 and bolted on foot, broad daylight and all.

• The SBU, Ukraine’s security agency, opened a murder investigation but hasn’t named a suspect or motive.

• Voronych helped lead special ops like drone sabotage missions deep in Russia.

• Some Kremlin-linked war bloggers are openly cheering his death. One wrote that “the enemy must feel afraid on its own territory.”

🇬🇧 UK Uncovers Iranian Plots. Britain just dropped a report confirming Iran has ramped up efforts to intimidate, kidnap, or kill regime critics on UK soil (at least 15 plots between 2022 and mid-2023), with MI5 later upping the count to 20.

• Iranian journalists in London, like Sima Sabet, are living under surveillance and death threats, and some were even given panic buttons.

• Tehran’s targets allegedly include dissidents and Israeli-linked individuals.

• The committee says London’s been too focused on nukes, ignoring cyberattacks and covert hits.

• Tehran denies everything, blaming Israel for stirring conflict, while joking about striking Trump with a “micro-drone.”

• The report only includes evidence up to August 2023, so it doesn’t even take into account the spike in tensions following the October 7 attack.

🇧🇷 Trump Threatens Brazil Tariffs. Trump just announced 50% tariffs on all Brazilian imports, accusing Brazil of a “witch hunt” against former-President Bolsonaro, who’s now on trial for plotting a coup after his 2022 election loss.

• So why does this matter? The US is Brazil’s second-largest trading partner with $92 B in annual trade.

• The US had a $7.4 billion trade surplus with Brazil last year, but Trump wrongly claimed that it had a deficit.

• Current President Lula fired back hours later, vowing to match Trump's 50% tariffs. He also reaffirmed that Bolsonaro’s prosecution is “the sole responsibility of the Brazilian Judiciary.”

🇨🇦 CANADA
Trump’s Canada
Tariff Threat

Now that the stock market is back at all-time highs, just like many predicted, Trump is once again charging ahead with tariff threats and announcements.

The difference this time? People are expecting TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out"), so the market isn’t tanking like it did before.

Today, his latest round of threats took aim at Canada, hitting it with a 35% tariff set to kick in on August 1.

Canada Targeted Again

President Trump sent a letter today to Canadian Prime Minister Carney, despite Carney's visit to the White House in May—a trip many viewed as an attempt to cozy up to Trump.

• “Starting August 1, 2025, we will charge Canada a Tariff of 35%,” Trump posted.

• The tariff is “separate from all Sectoral Tariffs,” which means the rates will end up being higher, effectively.

• This is part of a broader push against nations lacking trade deals.

Tariffs on Everyone Else

However, this isn’t just about Canada. Trump’s trade vision has gone full bulldozer on others as well.

• Trump told NBC News, “All of the remaining countries are going to pay,” hinting at blanket tariffs up to 20%.

• In total, the administration rolled out new tariffs of 25 to 50 percent on more than 20 countries, set to kick in on August 1.

Canada’s Economic Stakes

So why does this matter so much? Because hammering Canada might backfire.

• Canada shipped $413 billion worth of goods to the US last year, the third-highest source of imports.

• Canada also buys $349 billion of US exports, making it the number one buyer globally.

• Lumber is one of the top Canadian goods impacted, with ripple effects on housing and construction costs.

Fentanyl and Tech Tensions

Plus, he’s pointing to fentanyl as the reason for the tariffs, but analysts believe that this is just a front.

• For example, Trump is hitting Laos with a 40% tariff, even though the US doesn’t have the same complaints or issues with Laos as it does with Canada. So why such a big difference in rates?

  • Canada’s tariffs hit harder because the trade volume is way bigger.

  • Still, Laos’s tariffs, along with those on other countries, are widely seen as not making much sense when measured against any clear standards.

• Trump hinted the rate could change “upward or downward” depending on Canada’s cooperation with him on stopping fentanyl flows.

• Last month, before Trump's latest announcement, Canada even paused a retroactive digital services tax that would’ve hit American tech firms, hoping to cool tensions.

Scenarios

Beyond just numbers, what the US should worry about is time. Since the Liberation Day announcements back in April, very few countries have jumped into deals with the US like Trump probably hoped.

Here’s what that could mean:

• Countries took that time to team up and build their own trade networks, cutting the US out.

• They used that period to get ready, finding ways to soften the blow of tariffs until Trump’s term ends.

• Or they’re betting Trump will back down once price spikes start hurting the US economy.

The last two scenarios are most likely, but no matter how you slice it, time is working against the US and peeling away its leverage.

Another scenario: Countries actually tried desperately to strike deals with the US, but the US rejected most of them.

Thoughts

If I had to bet, I'd put my money on the first three scenarios being more likely. I initially wrote a longer response, but it got too long, so here’s the condensed version:

• From what I’ve seen and heard, even diehard pro-Trump supporters overseas are starting to turn on him.

  • Tariffs are hitting their businesses and driving up prices.

  • They were once urging their governments to strike a deal quickly, but over time, their attitude has soured.

  • But keep in mind, this is coming from my conversations with various pro-Trump acquaintances overseas.)

• At the recent European Central Banking Forum, which brought together the heads of central banks from the UK, EU, US, South Korea, and Japan, it was pretty clear that other major economies have been gearing up for these tariff hikes for a while now.

  • And dare I say, they don’t seem all that fazed by it either.

  • That’s not to say their economies won’t take a huge hit, but it does seem like they’ve been getting ready to cushion the impact as much as possible.