Syria will collapse if...

Hi Global Recap readers,

Despite the Trump administration’s first 100 days signaling deep cuts to foreign aid and a largely non-interventionist stance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that the Senate may need to act soon to prevent Syria from collapsing.

• Some argue it’s in America’s best interest—an unstable Syria, and the Middle East more broadly, could fuel extremist terrorism and raise the risk of it reaching US soil.

• But others see this as a slow walk-back of Trump’s campaign promise to be a non-interventionist, “America First” president.

Still, one could argue that aiding Syria could align with US national security interests. In short: it’s complicated.

But first, here’s a quick scroll through what’s happening worldwide. 👇️ 

🌐 WORLD
Fast Scroll News

🇮🇱 Israel Prepping Iran Strike. New US intelligence suggests Israel is gearing up for an attack on Iranian nuclear sites. Officials say intercepted Israeli communications and observed military movements hint at action, though there’s debate on whether a final decision has been made. The likelihood has “gone up significantly” in recent months, especially if the US makes a deal that leaves Iran’s uranium stockpile intact.

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🇷🇴 Musk Questions Romanian Election. Elon Musk and David Sacks, both Trump advisers, are casting doubt on Romania’s presidential election, contradicting the US diplomat in Romania. The winner, Nicușor Dan, is a pro-EU centrist who supports Ukraine. Sacks called the result “statistically unlikely.” Musk amplified claims by Pavel Durov, Telegram’s CEO, that France asked him to ban conservative voices before the vote, though France denies this. Meanwhile, the US Embassy congratulated Dan and signaled official support.

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🇲🇽 Mexico City Officials Killed. Gunmen on a motorcycle ambushed two senior aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada on Tuesday, killing them in broad daylight. Ximena Guzmán, the mayor’s private secretary, and José Muñoz, a senior adviser, were shot near the city center while on their way to work. Authorities seized a motorcycle and are reviewing surveillance footage, but have not disclosed a motive. It is believed to have been a drug cartel hit.

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🇪🇺 EU, UK Sanction Russia. Ignoring Washington’s hesitation, the EU and Britain just rolled out fresh sanctions against Russia, targeting its shadow fleet of oil tankers and financial networks propping up the economy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for the US to join in, but Trump remains undecided, saying sanctions might disrupt peace efforts.

Other European leaders:

• Germany’s foreign minister insists Russia must accept an “immediate ceasefire.”

• France says it's time to force Putin’s hand.

• Italy’s PM Meloni confirms the Pope is willing to host negotiations at the Vatican.

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🇺🇸 Trump Unveils Golden Dome. Donald Trump just locked in a design for his $175-billion “Golden Dome” missile defense shield and appointed US Space Force General Michael Guetlein to run the program. Inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome, the system will use hundreds of satellites to detect and intercept potential missile strikes from China or Russia.

• Canada wants in—its prime minister has pledged to pay a “fair share.”

• Democrats are raising alarms over SpaceX’s potential involvement.

• The Congressional Budget Office warns that the total cost could balloon to $831 billion over 20 years.

• Trump claims it’ll be operational by 2029, but Defense experts aren’t so sure.

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🇸🇾 SYRIA
Rubio’s Warns
Syria’s Collapse

Rubio warned in a Senate hearing that Syria’s transitional government might crumble within weeks, risking a full-blown civil war.

The transitional government is hanging by a thread, and Rubio says US intervention might be the only way to prevent chaos.

The Collapse Concerns

Rubio didn’t sugarcoat it—Syria’s current government is fragile, and time is running out.

• He told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Syria is “maybe weeks—not many months—away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions.”

• He also said Trump implemented the 180-day sanctions waiver last week to give neighboring countries time to stabilize Syria—a move that came as a surprise at the time.

• But Rubio warned that sanctions relief alone won’t be enough—Congress may need to step in, as past civil wars turned Syria into a “playground for jihadist groups.”

Al-Sharaa’s Leadership

The new Syrian President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is trying to hold things together after toppling Bashar al-Assad last year.

• But al-Sharaa has a history that makes US officials uneasy.

  • In the early 2000s, he fought US troops as part of Al Qaeda in Iraq, before breaking ties in 2016.

  • Now, he claims to be a defender of Syria’s religious diversity, but many remain skeptical.

  • Last year, Al-Sharaa’s group, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, ended the Assad regime’s 53-year rule.

• That said, Al-Sharaa insists he wants to keep Syria unified—no sectarian divisions.

Interview in Spotlight

Here’s a PBS Frontline interview from 2021 that’s been making the rounds online. In it, he says: 

“… anybody who lived in the Islamic world, in the Arab world at the time, who tells you that he wasn’t happy would be lying to you, because people felt the injustice of the Americans in their support of the Zionists…”

• In fairness, he was speaking about how he felt then. His perspective may have shifted since—just as he now claims.

Watch the full documentary The Jihadist here.

Context

Trump met with al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia last week, urging him to join the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel.

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman brokered the meeting.

• Tulsi Gabbard previously called him “an Islamist extremist” during her confirmation hearing as Director of National Intelligence.

🇮🇷 IRAN
Khamenei Calls US
Demands “Nonsense”

On X, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei slammed the US’s push to halt Tehran’s uranium enrichment, calling it “utter nonsense.” His comments directly contradict Trump’s claim that Iran has “sort of” agreed to the deal.

So what’s really going on?

• Is Khamenei saying this for domestic propaganda?

• Or is Trump not being entirely truthful?

Khamenei’s Speech

But that’s not all. On May 17, Khamenei said that “Trump is lying and his statements are not worth a response; Israel will be dismantled,” as the crowd chanted repeatedly: “Death to America,” “Death to England,” and “Death to Israel.”

Tehran’s Nuclear Playbook

Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful energy purposes—but the numbers tell a different story.

• Iran’s nuclear energy made up less than 1% of its power in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.

• Critics say Iran’s missile program, combined with near-weapons-grade uranium enrichment, suggests it’s preparing for more than just energy production.

Talks in Limbo

The US wants Iran back at the negotiating table, but Tehran isn’t rushing to set a date.

• The fifth round of nuclear talks was rumored to take place in Rome this weekend.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the US is making “illogical” demands that are stalling negotiations.

• Tehran hasn’t formally agreed to resume talks yet—Araqchi warned, “We are reviewing the matter and hope logic will prevail.”

What’s Next?

• Khamenei doesn’t believe negotiations will lead to results—“We don’t know what will happen,” he admitted.

• The White House hasn’t confirmed if it officially demanded Iran halt enrichment entirely.

• Remember that post about Israel earlier? Even if the US and Iran come to an agreement, Israel could still launch a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

• For now, it’s yet another standoff.