Hi Global Recap readers,
If you were online this weekend, you likely saw the headlines (and the memes) about Venezuela, after U.S. forces arrested Nicolás Maduro and his wife and brought them to the United States.
Rather than rehashing the play-by-play, I want to clear up a few questions that landed in my inbox about President Trump’s comments on Venezuela “stealing” oil he argues should belong to the United States.
So here's a brief history of U.S. oil companies in Venezuela. 👇🏼
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA
Socialism for Me,
Not for Thee
In the 1910s–1920s: Foreign oil concessions helped turn Venezuela into a major producer. Companies operating around Lake Maracaibo, including Creole Petroleum (later a Standard Oil of New Jersey affiliate), developed key fields and built the pipelines, terminals, and export infrastructure that moved crude to refineries and global markets.
On January 1, 1976: Venezuela nationalized oil and created PDVSA, converting foreign operators into state-controlled structures. However, even then, PDVSA still leaned on foreign firms for refining, transport, marketing, and technical support rather than cleanly “going it alone.”
Hugo Chávez
In 2007: President Hugo Chávez ordered major Orinoco Belt projects converted into PDVSA-majority joint ventures. U.S. companies (ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips) refused the new terms, left, and the fight shifted into expropriation claims and arbitration awards.
Today: Chevron is the lone U.S. major still exporting Venezuelan crude under U.S. authorization, a narrow channel that shows “the U.S. got forced out” is mostly true for ownership, but less true for limited, license-driven presence.
Patrons: As U.S. access tightened, Venezuela leaned on outsiders.
Cuba for intelligence and security support tied to oil flows
China for oil-backed lending and joint ventures (loans)
Russia for weapons sales plus energy leverage
Iran for gasoline, parts, and technicians to keep refineries and exports limping along.
Security: For U.S. national security, this foreign influence in Venezuela matters because it creates a nearby hub for U.S. rivals to provide matériel and know-how, deepen intelligence cooperation, and route sanctions-evasion networks through the Caribbean basin, forcing the U.S. to plan for spillover risks much closer to the Gulf Coast than most other flashpoints.
All Oil?
You’ll hear plenty of people argue that “the U.S. is only doing this for oil and money.”
That’s not entirely wrong. But unfortunately, this isn't a "gotcha," since Trump hasn’t exactly been subtle about the material interests at stake.
What rings hollow is treating this as uniquely “evil” U.S. imperialism while ignoring how China and Russia have been exploiting Maduro and Venezuela’s oil for years, with ordinary Venezuelans seeing little benefit.
China’s Silence
Wonder why China and Russia, who have invested significantly in Venezuela for years, are so silent about all this?
Why isn’t China more outraged?
Do they still have their diplomatic delegation in Caracas?
Can they afford to press the U.S. with demands? 👇🏼
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA
Palace Guards
Shoot
Heavy gunfire can be heard and seen outside
Click for video
Caracas had a twitchy Monday night when security forces near the Miraflores presidential palace opened fire at drones buzzing the area, after what witnesses described as bursts of automatic gunfire and tracer flashes over central rooftops.
Timing: The shooting kicked off around 8:00 p.m. local time on January 5, with residents nearby reporting short, intense bursts rather than a sustained firefight.
Trigger: Reports say drones were seen over the palace complex and security forces fired upward in response, with officials later saying the situation was "under control."
Identity: International wire reports described the aircraft as "unidentified," while UNN and some local accounts claimed the drones ultimately appeared to be tied to Venezuela’s own security apparatus, meaning, friendly-fire.
Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello
This is a much better outcome than what some had been surmising: a coup against interim President Delcy Rodríguez by Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello.
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA
Some Memes
It turns out all the weapons Russia provided to Venezuela were ineffective
After President Trump said the U.S. is going to “run” Venezuela
President Donaldo Juan Trumpchez
Thanks for the protection Xi
Marco Rubio realizing that he’s going to be the Supreme Leader of Iran next.
Not a meme.
Maduro and his wife Flores in handcuffs escorted by Federal agents on Jan. 5, 2026, in New York City.
🇮🇷 IRAN
Government to
Pay People
Iran’s government's making a huge move to calm the protestors. Get ready.
They are going to start handing out a whopping $7 credit per month to citizens, pitched as a way to calm prices and keep families afloat while protests keep rolling.
Offer: Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani announced the plan on Iranian state TV on Monday, framing it as a move to "preserve households" purchasing power, control inflation, and protect food security.
You read that right. They are giving out subsidies to control inflation.
Mechanics: Iran would reroute roughly $10B/year currently spent on import subsidies into direct public assistance (basically trading cheaper imports for individual credits in people’s accounts). If importers lose a preferential FX rate and have to buy dollars closer to the market rate, their costs jump, and prices follow.
So the loop could look like: higher prices → government hands out “credit” by rerouting subsidies → demand stays propped up → prices stay high (or rise further due to subsidies rerouting) → more pressure for additional support.
This is simplified, and because it’s a rerouting of funds rather than pure money-printing, the second-order effects are harder to predict.
Mechanics: Eligible Iranians would receive 10 million Iranian Rials per month, roughly $7 (market rate), delivered as store credit meant for buying goods rather than as cash you can stash or swap.
On Monday, Senator Lindsey Graham posted a photo on X of himself posing with President Trump, who was holding a hat that read “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN.” Is the US coming for Iran next?
Click for post
📌 Context: Iran is in its ninth straight day of protests across multiple cities, with demonstrators pushing past economic demands into open calls for the regime to go and bring back the exiled Crown Prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi.
🇮🇷 IRAN
Khamenei’s Plan B
Supreme Leader of Iran, Khamenei
But in the background of all this, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, reportedly has an escape plan to Russia if the protests rolling through Iran start breaking the security forces meant to keep him in power.
Trigger: Intelligence sources say Khamenei's red line is defection or disobedience by the army and security units tasked with suppressing unrest. If commanders stop taking orders, Khamenei and his inner circle move.
Crew: The reported getaway includes up to 20 people from Khamenei’s tight orbit, including family, senior aides, and his son Mojtaba, who is described as his nominated heir apparent.
Logistics: The plan reportedly involves mapping an exit route out of Tehran, plus quietly lining up cash and overseas assets to make a fast departure workable.
Destination: Moscow is presented as the likely bolt-hole, with former Israeli intelligence operative Beni Sabti arguing Russia is the obvious pick because of the regime’s ties with Vladimir Putin and the "assumption" that Russia would still shelter him.
