Pretty much right after I hit send on yesterday’s newsletter, clips started making the rounds of Mojtaba Khamenei being presented as a literal life-size cardboard cutout.

The problem is, nobody can tell whether it’s AI or not.

And to understand why, you have to go back a bit—because this isn’t even the first time the regime has pulled a similar stunt. 👇🏼

People are debating whether the video is real, but there are already a bunch of red flags suggesting it’s AI.

But of course, like all everyone else, I’m only speculating too.

Whether authentic or not, the clip is triggering speculation for a reason: the regime has pulled this kind of stunt before.

Memes and history jokes aside, Mojtaba’s total absence is setting off all kinds of speculation.

Absence. Since being named Iran’s next Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has not shown up in public, released a video, or issued a written statement. State media have resorted to archive footage instead.

Claims. Iranian state TV has called him the “Jaanbaz of Ramadan,” essentially, a wounded war veteran. Anchors said he was injured by the enemy in what the regime describes as the Ramadan war, but offered no specifics.

Injuries. That vacuum has fueled a wave of online rumors, including claims that:

TLDR:
^ Ukraine says it hit a key military electronics plant in Bryansk.
^ Zelenskyy called it a justified payback for the missiles hitting Ukrainian cities.
^ Russia says six civilians died and 37 were hurt.
^ British Storm Shadow cruise missiles were used.
^ The same day, Zelenskyy said new US-backed talks could happen next week.

Target. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces hit a factory in Bryansk that makes electronics and components for Russian missiles.

Damage. Ukraine said the strike caused significant damage to the plant's production facilities.

Casualties. Russia called the attack a "terrorist strike" and said 6 civilians were killed and at least 37 people were wounded. Ukraine did not comment on that claim in the report.

Location. Bryansk is about 100 km (60 miles) from the Ukrainian border. That matters because it shows Ukraine is still reaching across the border to hit military-linked infrastructure inside Russia.

Talks. Later Tuesday, Zelenskyy said another round of talks pushed by the USA could happen next week, possibly in Switzerland or Turkey. He said the meeting had originally been planned for the United Arab Emirates before being delayed.

TLDR:
^ The US troop injury count in the Iran war just got a lot bigger.
^ The public number before this was eight serious injuries.
^ The Pentagon later put the wounded total near 140 over 10 days.
^ Two people familiar with the matter had pegged it as high as 150.
^ Most injuries were called minor, and 108 troops were back on duty.

Gap. What changed here is the size of the gap between the public count and the private one. Two people familiar with the matter put the number of wounded US troops as high as 150.

Public. Before this, the Pentagon had only publicly listed eight serious injuries. Later, it said about 140 service members had been wounded over 10 days of attacks and that most injuries were minor.

Return. The Pentagon said 108 of the wounded had already gone back to duty. The eight serious cases were still getting the highest level of medical care.

Unknown. It still isn't clear what kinds of injuries these were. It also isn't clear whether they included traumatic brain injuries, which often show up after blasts.