Hi Global Recap readers,
I’ve been thinking about Russia’s Oreshnik IRBM lately, partly because the latest footage had the same strange look as the last time they used it.
The footage looks terrifying, no doubt. But the explosion itself was oddly underwhelming.
Now, some reports suggest that may be the point.
The weapon may be designed more for speed, kinetic impact, and signaling than for a massive Hollywood-style explosion.
So for anyone else who’s curious, our last story gets into that.
But first, let’s get into the money-first deal Iran is trying to cut (supposedly).👇🏼
👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: The US military says it hits 2 IRGC boats and a missile site near Bandar Abbas after reported mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz. Both the US and Iran are actively trying to work out a “peace deal.”
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Russia follows a 600-drone, 90-missile barrage that includes a nuclear-capable Oreshnik with a warning for foreigners and diplomats to leave Kyiv before more strikes on "decision-making centers."
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Cash Before Deal
The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei. He still hasn’t appeared in any verified photos since his father was assassinated.
Iran is now threatening retaliation over the latest US's "self-defense" strikes, and at the same time, trying to turn the peace deal into a cash-first negotiation.
Current Status:
Iran's Foreign Ministry called the strikes a ceasefire violation and said it would leave no act of hostility unanswered.
Iran-linked reports say Tehran wants an initial $12 billion released at the signing of the deal, with another $12 billion to be released within 60 days.
However, the US insists that any asset release would be conditional.
🌐 NATO
Europe Gets The Bill
The US reportedly told NATO allies it will scale down the forces it pledges for a crisis, including strategic bombers, fighter jets, drones, destroyers and submarines.
What We Know:
The reported cuts would halve US strategic bomber commitments, cut fighter jets by about a third, reduce destroyers, and remove submarines from NATO's force pool.
The plan is not final, no public timeline is attached, and the US reportedly told allies its nuclear deterrent in Europe is not changing.
NATO's Force Model lets allies pre-assign national forces to the alliance for peacetime, crisis, or war.
📌 Context. Europe and Canada are being pressured to fill the conventional-defense gap faster. The US is pushing NATO to plan for a future where America still provides the nuclear umbrella, but commits fewer ships and aircraft if Europe faces a major crisis.
🎙️ PODCAST
31 Years Old,
$250 Million.
Christopher Eppinger
With all the talk about Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and oil, Russia’s influence on the global oil market has mostly flown under the radar.
I realized I even forgot to mention that we also have a Russia episode—about a German oil trader who made $250 million trading Russian oil after the invasion of Ukraine.
He’s now 31.
One subscriber put it best:
“It should have been meeee!…”
Click below to hear more about this insane, slightly envy-inducing story. 👇🏼
🇮🇱🇱🇧 ISRAEL & LEBANON
Israel Pushes North
Israel has expanded its ground operation in southern Lebanon beyond its self-drawn Yellow Line, while hitting Lebanon with more than 120 airstrikes in one of the heaviest bombing days in weeks.
📌 Context. This is notable because the US and Iran are currently trying to work out a “peace deal,” and some reported terms of the agreement reportedly involve Israel scaling back or ending its offensives in Lebanon.
This line is not the UN Blue Line. It is Israel's own buffer marker, set several kilometers inside Lebanon after the April 16 ceasefire. Fighting is now centering near the Litani River, a strategic boundary in the south.
The Split:
Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel is deepening operations and fortifying a security strip to protect northern communities.
Hezbollah claimed it attacked Israeli forces and tanks advancing near Zawtar al-Sharqiya with drones, rockets, and artillery.
Lebanon says recent Israeli strikes killed 31 people and wounded 40, with the broader offensive toll at 3,213 dead since March 2.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
The Missing Blast
I kept wondering why Russia's flashy Oreshnik missile strikes didn't look as destructive as the hype suggested.
The likely answer is weirdly simple: experts say the missile seems to be dropping fast, heavy kinetic penetrators rather than conventional explosive warheads.
💭 Thoughts. Since a lot of you clicked on the video of Russia’s Oreshnik strike a few days ago, I figured this might be useful context for anyone wondering the same thing.
Also, it’s just interesting.
What We Know:
Videos from the May 24 strike near Bila Tserkva, plus earlier strikes on Dnipro and Lviv, showed impacts without the big primary fireballs people expect from missiles.
Pavel Podvig said the projectiles "don't seem" to carry explosives, while Konrad Muzyka estimated roughly 36 penetrators released from 6 reentry vehicles.
That can still punch hard, but accuracy matters. If the penetrators spread too widely or miss the target, the effect can look closer to expensive metal slamming into dirt than a giant conventional blast.
Russia gets the propaganda value either way. The battlefield value is a lot less obvious.
