Hi Global Recap readers,
Last time someone created a fresh account to bet big on Maduro's arrest this month, they were right.
And today, it happened again. But was this a degenerate gambler, or a government official trying to throw everyone off?
I think the former, but what do you think? 👇🏼
🇮🇷 IRAN
Flip-Flop Or Diversion?
That's the big question.
Today, President Trump told reporters that Iran appeared to have stopped killing protesters and that there was 'no plan for executions' anymore—some are taking that to mean no U.S. strike on Iran.
But at the same time, reports suggest that the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group has redirected from the South China Sea to the Middle East—moves some interpret as preparation for a possible U.S. strike.
So what is it?
Claim. On Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, Trump told reporters at the White House that Iran appeared to have stopped killing protesters and that there was "no plan for executions."
He said that he was hearing it from "very important sources on the other side."
Although, he also admitted he would "find out" later whether the information was real.
Movement. In Qatar, U.S. military officials said an unspecified number of nonessential personnel were moved from Al Udeid because of rising tension, while the Pentagon’s Central Command declined to comment.
Another U.S. official said long-range bombers in the United States had been put on alert for follow-on strikes but that posture appeared paused by Wednesday afternoon.
A person briefed on the decision said the U.K. was also withdrawing some of its personnel from the base.
📌 Context: Al Udeid is the regional H.Q. for U.S. Central Command and hosts about 10,000 troops, and it has already been in Iran’s sights. After U.S. airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites last June, Iran retaliated by firing missiles at Al Udeid.
Video footage allegedly showing Iranian forces entering a hospital to drag out wounded protesters, with reports indicating the use of shotguns and executions within various hospitals.
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Image allegedly showing an Iranian forces member with a machine gun mounted on a truck, as previously reported.
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A new account was recently created to place a large bet on the U.S. striking Iran today. In hindsight, this was a poor decision (to say the least). However, some suggest it may have been a U.S. tactic to mislead adversaries monitoring Polymarket betting patterns in an effort to predict potential military actions.
Click for post
Now, that same account is down 99.68%.
📊 Poll
I strongly discourage betting under any circumstances. That said, I think it would be interesting to see your predictions.
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM
Elections Canceled
Left-wing Labour Party (P.M. Starmer’s party) is set to cancel or delay dozens of May council elections, leaving roughly 4 million people disenfranchised.
The government says it is about local reorganization.
Critics say it is a blatant attack on democracy.
The government is expected to cancel/delay at least 27 council elections, sparing hundreds of councillors from facing voters this spring. In some areas, elections would be scrapped for a second year running, leaving councillors in office for seven years without seeking re-election.
Lever. The move relies on section 87 of the Local Government Act 2000, a rarely discussed power that lets the Communities Secretary change the year elections are held.
Math. Ministers asked 63 councils whether they wanted to delay elections, citing the strain of restructuring plans that would abolish some district councils and introduce mayoralties.
20 councils have confirmed delays so far.
15 of them Labour-run, which the article says would deny 2.8 million people a vote in May.
The total number of denied votes is expected to rise to around 3.7 million if more councils join.
Pushback. Right-wing Reform UK Party says it will launch a judicial review on Thursday, arguing Communities Secretary Steve Reed is stretching the law beyond what it allows.
📌 Context: UK local elections normally run on fixed cycles, but the 2000 law gives ministers a shortcut to shift them via statutory instrument. Before that, delays typically required full legislation and much heavier parliamentary scrutiny.
🇩🇰 DENMARK
Denmark Draws
Greenland Redlines
After his White House talks, Denmark’s foreign minister said the U.S. still talks like it wants to “conquer” Greenland, and Denmark considers that a hard no. The three parties agreed anyway to set up a high-level working group to keep talking.
Scene. Denmark’s foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen met Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the White House on Wednesday, calling the meeting "frank but constructive."
Faultline. Rasmussen said there is a "fundamental disagreement" because President Trump is still pressing to acquire Greenland.
Rasmussen said that is "totally unacceptable."
He also reportedly described "red lines" the U.S. cannot cross.
However, he conceded there is a real Arctic security angle, agreeing with President Trump's argument that Greenland is essential for national security.
This map better illustrates how positionally important Greenland is.
Stakes. Trump framed Greenland as a national-security need, including for his planned missile defense system, "Golden Dome."
Pressure. Europe moved fast to show it is watching:
Sweden pledged forces if Denmark asks.
Germany said it would send a reconnaissance team.
The U.K. said it would send one military officer to join that team.
France said it plans to open a consulate next month while also joining the reconnaissance effort.
🇵🇸 GAZA STRIP
Phase Two Gaza Plan
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff
The White House says it is starting phase two of the Gaza ceasefire, pushing Hamas to disarm while Israel pulls troops back and a new technocratic government steps in.
Announcement. Today, special envoy Steve Witkoff (speaking on behalf of President Trump), publicly kicked off what it calls "phase two" of the Gaza ceasefire deal, framing it as a shift from guns-silent-for-now to a full plan for demilitarization, governance, and reconstruction.
Blueprint. The core mechanics of this phase are as follows:
Hamas gives up weapons.
Israel pulls back its troops.
New security and governing structures move in.
Vice President of the State of Palestine, Hussein al-Sheikh
Government. Egypt announced a new Palestinian technocratic government after meetings with Palestinian factions in Cairo.
It will be led by Ali Shaath, described as a former deputy transportation minister in the Palestinian Authority.
Vice President of the State of Palestine, Hussein al-Sheikh, welcomed the move but stressed the new institutions in Gaza should be linked to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, not set up as a rival power center.
Next. The White House says a Trump-led "Board of Peace" will oversee the technocratic government, but it has not yet named the board and is still inviting countries to join.
Officials say Trump plans to chair the board’s first meeting next week during the World Economic Forum in Davos, and former U.N. envoy Mladenov is expected to be the board’s representative on the ground in Gaza.
On security, the U.S. has not named contributors to an "International Stabilization Force," though Indonesia and Morocco are cited as expected major troop contributors at this stage.
📌 Context: Phase one of the ceasefire secured the release of all living hostages, though the remains of one deceased Israeli hostage are still in Gaza. Phase two is meant to lock in a post-war order by pairing demilitarization with an interim governing setup and the start of long reconstruction.
