Hi Global Recap readers,
We end the week with a massive document dump—over 3 million pages of the Epstein files—which officials are touting as full compliance with the “Epstein Files Transparency Act.”
A lot appears to be hearsay, but the frequent appearance of well-known names are what people are fixating on: Trump, Elon Musk, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, Steve Bannon, Bill Clinton, and Bill Gates.
Why is this relevant today? Because when domestic headlines turn unfavorable, one of the oldest playbooks is to shift attention to foreign-policy escalation. And right on cue, parts of the internet are insisting this could be the ultimate spark (or the cover) for a move against Iran this weekend.
That said, we’ve been saying the same thing for about a month. So don’t hold your breath.
🇺🇳 UNITED NATIONS
UN Budget Crisis Deepens
UN Secretary General António Guterres
The UN says it could hit a default by July unless member states pay billions in overdue dues, with a shutdown of its New York headquarters possible by August. Officials point to the US as the central missing check.
Warning. UN Secretary General António Guterres wrote to ambassadors of all 193 member states that the UN faces “imminent financial collapse,” adding, "I cannot overstate the urgency of the situation we now face."
On Jan. 30, 2026, senior UN officials also noted that the the UN could run out of cash by July and be forced to close its HQ in New York by August.
They also warned the September General Assembly gathering of world leaders could be canceled.
Arrears. The General Assembly approved a $3.45 billion regular budget for 2026 on Dec. 30.
However, the system is reportedly breaking because dues are unpaid or late.
The US accounts for about $2.2 billion, combining unpaid 2025 dues and the 2026 assessment.
Pressure. Dues are mandatory and assessed based on a country’s GDP, and nonpayment can cost a country its voting rights.
Venezuela, owing ~$38 million for 2025, has already lost voting rights
Mexico, owing ~$20 million for 2025, is expected to pay late.
Repeat. But of course, this isn't the first time the UN is warning of bankruptcy.
So who’s to blame here? Is this a member-state arrears problem, a UN spending discipline problem, or both?
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA
Khalid Presses Trump
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (left) and the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei (right)
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman told a private Washington group that skipping a threatened bombing of Iran would leave Tehran stronger.
This is strange, given that Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman, has made it clear that the US is not to use Saudi airspace to attack Iran.
So essentially: "Don't use our airspace, but you better attack Iran."
Briefing. In a closed-door meeting on Friday in Washington, Prince Khalid bin Salman said that if President Trump does not act after weeks of threats, it would "embolden the regime," according to four sources in the room.
Why. There are a few theories:
Some believe this conflicting messaging is due to the kingdom realizing that Trump is leaning toward a strike and not wanting to be seen as opposing it (at least privately).
"Coincidentally," the US just approved a $9 billion sale of Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia. Interesting timing.
Public Posture. Publicly, Mohammed bin Salman told Iran's president on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia would not allow the US to use its airspace for an attack, and the kingdom said it respects Iran's sovereignty and wants a diplomatic solution.
🇮🇷 IRAN
Trump Wants a Deal
Frustrating for many supporters of Iranian protesters, President Trump said Iran wants a deal on its nuclear program, but he is keeping a US military option open as ships crowd the Gulf and an armada heads toward the region.
Signal. At the White House on Friday, Trump told reporters Iran "do want to make a deal," while refusing to give any clear deadline for an agreement or a timeline for pulling US naval forces back from waters near Iran.
Pressure. His comments follow a warning on Wednesday that time was "running out" for negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, and a Thursday message that Iran must accept "no nuclear" and stop "killing protesters" to avoid US military action.
Issues. As noted many times, there are two issues with this messaging:
Graffiti in Milan, Italy, near the US consulate general, entitled MIGA (Make Iran Great Again).
Fueling radicalization among future generations of Iranians, who may resent the United States for years over what they see as a betrayal.
It lets Iran frame the US posture as “weak.” This perception is driven by weeks of Trump repeatedly moving his red line while continuing to call for a “deal.” And, as feared, Foreign Minister Araghchi is already folding this into his propaganda.
When asked whether he has a deadline by which Iran must strike a “deal,” he cryptically said that “only they know for sure.”
Click for video
Toll. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it had confirmed more than 6,300 deaths since unrest began at the end of December, including more than 5,900 protesters.
It is also investigating another 17,000 reported deaths amid an internet shutdown.
Iran Human Rights in Norway warned the final toll could exceed 25,000.
