US Got Duped

Hi Global Recap readers,

Now that the US government is definitely shutting down, I can safely send this version of today’s deep dive, where we talk about what this means.

• Also, there have been whispers that Trump might actually want a government shutdown…

• But is this just a tinfoil that’s being spread by his critics?

We’ll dig into that later, but first, we’ve got to talk about his latest social media posts. 👇🏼

🌐 WORLD
Fast Scroll News

Before we start today’s newsletter, I’d like your opinion on two videos President Trump recently posted.

This shows House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer at the White House, addressing the press about their meeting with President Trump regarding government funding as a shutdown looms.

However, it is more than that... 👆🏼

Later, Jeffries responded to the video on TV, calling it racist. Trump, of course, doubled down.👆🏼

There seem to be three opinions about this:

1. He's just trolling. It's hilarious.

2. This is racist and, at the very least, beneath the office of the President of the United States.

3. Although it is beneath his position, it is admittedly funny.

What do you think?

🇵🇱 Poland Arrests Diver

Polish prosecutors just detained a Ukrainian man near Warsaw, accusing him of helping blow up the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022.

• Identity: The suspect is Volodymyr Z. (no... not the President), described by German prosecutors as a trained diver who allegedly planted explosives on the undersea gas lines.

• Method: Investigators say he and accomplices rented a yacht in Rostock, Germany, using forged IDs, then sailed to the Baltic Sea to carry out deep-water dives.

• Link: German officials tie the operation to Roman Chervinsky, a Ukrainian officer once in special operations, who allegedly coordinated logistics under orders from senior commanders.

• Defense: His lawyer, Tymoteusz Paprocki, insists he is innocent and argues that a Ukrainian cannot be prosecuted for targeting Russian-controlled Gazprom infrastructure during wartime.

• Parallel: Italian authorities arrested another Ukrainian, Serhii K., in August on similar suspicions, and he is also fighting extradition to Germany.

🇺🇦 Zelenskyy Warns Nuclear Risk

Speaking of "Volodymyr Z.," Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been cut off from the grid for seven days, calling the outage the most dangerous in the plant’s history.

• Duration: This is the longest blackout since Russia seized the facility in March 2022, with no external power reaching its six reactors.

• Cause: Zelenskyy blamed Russian shelling for blocking repairs to the main power line that cools reactor fuel and prevents meltdown.

• Backup: The plant is running on emergency diesel generators, but one of them failed after a week of nonstop use.

• Oversight: International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said eight generators are active, nine are on standby, and three are under maintenance.

• Location: The plant sits near Enerhodar on the Dnipro River, directly on the frontline, and currently produces no electricity for Ukraine.

🇺🇸 White House Duped

A leaked text on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s phone revealed that Argentina quickly ditched its export taxes on soybeans and sold huge shipments to China right after securing a $20 billion US bailout.

• Deal: The Treasury arranged a $20 billion swap line with Argentina’s central bank last week, designed to stabilize President Javier Milei’s government ahead of the October midterms.

• Text: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins warned Bessent that Argentina had already sold 20 shiploads of soybeans to China within two days, undercutting US farmers.

• Impact: Soybean prices in the US dropped as China canceled existing contracts with American producers, who had counted on China for nearly a quarter of exports in 2024.

• Reaction: The American Soybean Association called the move “overwhelmingly frustrating,” noting that harvest season has begun while China has not ordered US soybeans since May.

• Shift: Brazil now supplies 71% of China’s soybean imports, leaving US farmers squeezed out of their largest foreign market.

🇵🇰 Car Bomb Hits Quetta

A car bombing outside Pakistan's paramilitary headquarters in Quetta killed at least 10 people and wounded 30 more on September 30, 2025.

• Attackers: Police said six militants exited the vehicle before the blast and opened fire on troops. Security forces killed all six in the ensuing gunfight.

• Impact: The explosion shattered windows across the neighborhood, damaged nearby cars, and left civilians among the dead and injured.

• Response: Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi confirmed the attackers were neutralized, while President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the assault.

• Suspicion: No group claimed responsibility, but officials pointed to separatist groups in Balochistan, such as the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which has a history of targeting security forces.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Shutdown Clock
Hits Zero

The White House just confirmed that federal agencies will shut down at 11:59 pm after the Senate failed to pass a GOP-backed funding bill. Both parties are blaming each other, but for different reasons.

The Failed Vote

Let’s start with the numbers.

• On Tuesday evening, September 30, 2025, the Senate voted 55–45 on the GOP’s continuing resolution (CR), falling short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

• Three Democrats crossed over to support Republicans, while one Republican, Rand Paul of Kentucky, voted against it.

• The CR would have extended current funding levels through November 21, buying seven weeks to negotiate fiscal year 2026 priorities.

The Democratic Block

So why did Democrats tank it? Their leadership framed the GOP bill as too narrow.

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York led Democrats in opposing the CR, calling it a refusal to address broader spending needs.

• Democrats pushed their own counter-proposal to fund the government through October 31, which included restoring NPR and PBS (broadcasting orgs) funding and reversing Medicaid rollbacks.

• Republicans blocked that plan, labeling it hyper-partisan and fiscally irresponsible.

Trump’s Position

President Trump is firmly aligned with his party’s bill.

• The Office of Management and Budget memo stated Trump supports the GOP-led CR and blames Democrats for “insane policy demands” totaling $1 trillion in new spending.

• Trump met with congressional leaders from both parties at the White House on September 29, but the talks ended without a deal.

• OMB Director Russ Vought has already warned agencies to prepare for possible mass layoffs if the shutdown drags on.

Tinfoil

Conveniently, the US Labor and Commerce departments said on Monday that their statistics agencies would suspend economic data releases during a partial government shutdown, including September’s employment report, construction spending, and possibly August trade data.

• So what’s the tinfoil? Some believe President Trump actually wants a shutdown to suspend this report, since recent job growth reports and revisions have shown signs of weakness.

• Critics note the relative lack of boasting about tariffs compared to months ago, when they were touted as his signature move to bring back jobs and wealth to the US economy.

Who Keeps Working

Not everything grinds to a halt, but the split between "essential" and "nonessential" is clear.

• Active-duty military, Secret Service, border agents, federal law enforcement, and air traffic controllers must keep working without pay until funding resumes.

• Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans' health benefits continue because they are mandatory spending.

• Mail delivery and the Federal Reserve are unaffected since they are funded differently.

• However, thousands will be furloughed without pay, while others deemed essential will work without paychecks until funding resumes.

Who Gets Furloughed

The pain lands first on federal employees, and the numbers are not small.

• In past shutdowns, around 850,000 of 2.1 million non-postal federal employees were furloughed.

• Furloughed workers cannot legally work and do not get paid until the government reopens, though back pay is guaranteed later.

• Agencies most likely to close include the Environmental Protection Agency, Food and Drug Administration, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

• Senate-confirmed officials, the president, and members of Congress continue to work and get paid.

Parks, Reports, Museums

• National parks, monuments, and Smithsonian museums could close, though the Trump administration may try to keep them open with skeleton staff.

• As mentioned above, key economic reports like the Consumer Price Index and monthly jobs data are not published on time, and routine health and safety inspections are delayed.

• Agencies like NASA and the Library of Congress are considered nonessential and may partially or fully stop operations.

The Bigger Risk

The administration is hinting at something more than a temporary disruption.

• The White House Office of Management and Budget sent a letter suggesting agencies could "use this opportunity to consider reduction in force," essentially mass firings.

• Shutdowns in the past have been temporary nuisances, but the 2018–2019 shutdown under Trump lasted 35 days and permanently cut $3 billion from GDP.

• Analysts at Brookings and the Congressional Budget Office agree that short shutdowns are mostly symbolic, but prolonged ones create lasting economic damage.