Hi Global Recap readers,
Hopefully, today’s the day I can finally stop writing deep dives on Iran. I think I’ve covered just about everything (other than the speculation still floating around).
At least until the MOU is signed and released on Friday.
Speaking of which, VP Vance finally answered why the administration is withholding the details of the agreement, and it made more people mad... 👇🏼
👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: Vice President Vance won't clearly deny Iran could get access to a $300 billion Gulf-funded reconstruction package.
🇷🇺🇬🇧 Russia-UK: The UK boards the Russian shadow-fleet tanker SMYRTOS in the English Channel; a BBC investigation ties arson attacks on UK PM Starmer-linked properties to a Russian-speaking handler.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine hits a Russian state fuel reserve more than 700 km (435 miles) inside Russia; Russia then pounds Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other cities.
🌐 G7: G7 leaders meet in Evian-les-Bains with Ukraine, Iran, Hormuz, trade, and AI all fighting for space while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presses President Trump to keep backing Kyiv.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
The Bargain Backlash
President Trump voicing frustration with how Israel has been handling Hezbollah.
President Trump's Iran negotiations is now testing how much pressure Washington expects Israel to swallow. His recent ask to Israel is: let Syria "deal with Hezbollah."
He faulted Israel’s Lebanon campaign for its length, civilian toll, and strategic costs, then suggested Syria should take over.
Israel’s critics are welcoming Trump’s remarks, saying he’s finally seeing things differently, while his supporters counter that the real question is why Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel.
Issues with Leadership
Al-Sharaa (then known as al-Jolani) in a media appearance in July 2016 (left), Al-Sharaa in a CNN interview in 2024 (right).
Record. Syrian President al-Sharaa is not some clean post-Assad technocrat.
He was a member of al-Qaeda in Iraq
He founded al-Nusra in Syria
led al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate
later broke with al-Qaeda
rejected ISIS’s merger attempt
then fought ISIS.
Criticism. This is why critics believe handing al-Sharaa any role in Israel’s security, let alone dealing with an Islamic extremist group, is a terrible security bet—calling it delusional.
For. However, supporters argue that al-Sharaa has moved beyond his jihadist past. They cite his break with ISIS and al-Qaeda and his efforts to present himself as a pragmatic Syrian leader.
Al-Sharaa himself has appealed to the idea of personal change, arguing that “A person in their twenties will have a different personality than someone in their thirties or forties… This is human nature.”
📌 Context. Syria's old occupation (1976-2005) still haunts Lebanese politics, and Hezbollah can use that fear. One Lebanon analyst warned that a Syrian army dominated by Islamist factions could panic Christians, Druze, and Shias, and reinforce Hezbollah rather than weaken it.
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Enough About Iran (For Now)
The bald man with glasses on the left (seen pushing through the crowd to hold a burning American flag, chant “Death to America,” and stomp on the flag) is Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf. President Trump recently described him as one of the supposedly “more sensible people.”
Click for video
I’ve got a full page of analysis in my drafts covering the MOU’s implications, including the Pickaxe Mountain issue and the alleged “service fee” at the Strait.
But I’m going to hold off until next week, after the White House releases the official text.
For now, I’ll leave you with two things that stood out to me:
When asked why the US isn’t releasing the details of the MOU by Megyn Kelly, Vice President Vance said:
“There are delicate diplomatic things going on, where the Iranians… the Pakistanis and the Qataris have asked us to sequence this in the right way. I don’t frankly fully understand it. There are sensitivities that exist in the Arab and Muslim world that we’re trying to be responsive to.”
A US official reportedly said that:
“People shouldn’t read too much into the language of the MOU” because it doesn’t necessarily reflect commitments made through back channels.
Benefit of the Doubt
If I were giving the administration the benefit of the doubt, I’d assume some of the language was designed to get negotiations moving. Make some ambitious promises, calm markets down, and then get tougher later if needed.
So why was Trump so eager to announce the MOU this week?
I think it's because the Federal Reserve is announcing its rate decision today under its new chair. This is totally a speculation though.
Some analysts had speculated that persistently high oil prices could increase pressure for a rate hike. Now, oil prices are falling sharply since the MOU announcement.
It’s possible that was part of Trump’s calculation, especially with both Japan and the European Central Bank having recently raised rates. In fact, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to its highest in 31 years.
🇵🇱🇷🇺 POLAND & RUSSIA
Kremlin Critic Killed
Russian artist Semyon Skrepetsky, a Kremlin critic who fled Russia in 2021, was shot dead Monday morning in Biała Podlaska, Poland, days after an anti-Putin protest in Berlin.
Attack. Polish prosecutors said a gunman approached the 44-year-old near his home, fired at close range, then kept shooting after he fell. He died at the scene.
Profile. Skrepetsky, whose real name was Robert Kuzovkov, used paintings and performances to mock Russian President Putin, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
Detentions. Two Belarusian citizens were detained near the Belarusian consulate, but prosecutors have not charged them or confirmed they were tied to the killing.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Moscow Refinery Hit
Ukraine's military campaign against Russia's oil money just got real close to Moscow: a drone strike halted operations at Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery, the biggest fuel supplier to the Moscow region.
Damage. 2 industry sources said the strike damaged a primary refining unit that makes up 53% of the plant's capacity.
Caveat. Emergency services claimed the fire was put out and operations were unaffected. However, the aforementioned sources contradicted that, while verified witness footage showed flames and black smoke.
Fuel. Another Russian oil company, Tatneft, announced purchase caps after a separate refinery strike, while Russia-controlled Crimea and parts of southern Russia are already dealing with fuel shortages and queues.
🇺🇦🇺🇸 UKRAINE & US
The Price Tag
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (left) and US President Donald Trump (right) at the G7 Summit in France
Trump’s softer stance on Ukraine at the G7 came with strings attached: he signaled openness to tougher pressure on Russia and more support for Kyiv, while urging European allies to back his Iran diplomacy and help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz.
Weapons. G7 leaders pledged more air defenses, interceptors, and long-range capabilities for Ukraine, and said they may extend production licenses so Kyiv can make more weapons at home.
Sanctions. Trump said the US could soon reimpose eased Russian oil sanctions because oil was flowing again through Hormuz.
Caveat. Diplomats were relieved, but not convinced, since Trump has made pro-Ukraine noises before and then swung back toward pressuring Kyiv.
