Hi Global Recap readers,
As expected, many independent commentators online are voicing their frustration with President Trump for publicly encouraging Iranian protesters while reportedly pulling back from a planned strike.
Some say Gulf partners like Saudi Arabia and Qatar pressed hard on the U.S. to stop.
Others think the U.S. was simply “testing the waters” to probe Iran’s defenses and response patterns before deciding what comes next.
An image allegedly showing units of Hashd ash-Sha'bi, an Iranian-backed paramilitary group.
Either way, Iran’s internet is still largely dark, and the images that do leak out are brutal. I suppose we’ll know for sure once financial markets close for the weekend.
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA
Machado Hands
Trump Medal
President Trump (left) and Maria Corina Machado (right)
Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado finally met President Trump at the White House and did something quite controversial: present her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump.
Trump quickly amplified it online, framing the gesture as a personal endorsement of his role in Venezuela’s upheaval, but many are also criticizing the President for being "immature."
Scene. On Jan. 15, 2026, Machado met Trump at the White House and physically handed over her Nobel Peace Prize medal, the signature symbol of the prize she won last year. She told reporters she did it as recognition of his "unique commitment to our freedom."
Echo. Hours later, Trump posted on Truth Social to thank her and claimed she had presented him with her Nobel for "the work I have done."
Rules. In Norway, where the Nobel Peace Prize is treated as a form of national soft power, the Nobel Institute went into damage-control mode. After Machado floated the idea of sharing the prize, the institute reiterated that once a Nobel Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred.
🇨🇦 CANADA
Carney Courts
Xi in Beijing
Take a look at Premier Moe’s face when Carney mentions “new world order.”
Click for video
Prime Minister Carney is in Beijing for his meeting with Xi Jinping.
Normally, these visits are uneventful—but not this one, after Carney invoked the phrase, "New World Order."
Setup. On January 15, 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Carney sat down with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, a day before meeting Xi. Carney used the Li meeting to say that the progress in the partnership "sets up well for the new world order."
Although some interpret it as signaling a shift in power away from U.S.-centric geopolitics, his use of the loaded term is prompting many online to respond... passionately.
Outside mainstream usage, “New World Order” is also a loaded phrase in conspiracy circles—shorthand for a supposed secretive unelected global elite controlling governments and economies.
Canadian P.M. Carney (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right)
Scene. The timing is deliberate. Carney has been framing Canada-U.S. ties as a historic "rupture" tied to Trump's tariffs and broader disruptions, and he is now trying to widen Canada's options beyond its southern border.
Deal. The visit comes right after Canada and China unveiled an agreement to expand bilateral energy trade, alongside other moves touching lumber, cultural exchanges, and pet food exports.
Squeeze. Looking ahead, difficult negotiations loom with the U.S. on the North American free trade pact, and U.S. officials have been pressing Canada and Mexico to put up barriers to Chinese products ahead of those talks.
💭 THOUGHTS
Cost of U.S. Hegemony
B2 Bomber meme—suggesting that U.S. military supremacy is “international law”
This is precisely what I've been stressing for months now, regarding tariffs. My worry about tariffs is that once they’re permanent, they stop being leverage and start being a tax that others learn to route around.
Economy. Countries hedge: they diversify trade, supply chains, and investment to reduce exposure to U.S. costs and uncertainty. One major beneficiary of that hedging is China. (See how the E.U., South Korea, and India are warming up to China)
Security. As economic coercion loses bite, influence shifts to other tools. That often means more emphasis on security leverage: basing access, arms sales, intelligence sharing, maritime presence, and (most of all) the credibility of protection commitments.
Nicolás Maduro on the day he was arrested by the U.S.
This may help explain why we are seeing more overt signaling of U.S. military primacy. Perhaps it is a reminder that, even if market access is less predictable, U.S. security power remains central.
But the same logic cuts both ways. If U.S. protection is presented as increasingly transactional (or if allies perceive commitments as conditional) then over time they’ll hedge here too.
This means more self-reliant defense capacity, more regional arrangements, and selectively deeper ties with other major powers.
President Nixon ended gold convertibility in 1971, shifting the dollar fully into a fiat regime—its value no longer anchored to gold, but to U.S. economic capacity and institutions, and its global dominance reinforced by U.S.-led financial networks and security alliances.
Over the years, the U.S. maintained hegemony in part by:
Keeping its market broadly open through low tariffs and predictable access for others.
Anchoring security alliances that left many countries heavily reliant on U.S. protection.
Together, those created the current U.S.-led financial and security order.
But if other countries are increasingly pushed to rely less on the U.S. in both trade and security (especially when Washington floats threats like taking Greenland by force) what leverage will the U.S. really have a few decades from now?
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
U.S. Seizes Tanker Veronica
U.S. forces boarded yet another crude tanker called Veronica in a predawn Caribbean operation, the sixth seizure tied to Trump’s quarantine of sanctioned, Venezuela-linked tankers.
Boarding. U.S. Southern Command said the tanker was boarded "without incident" in the Caribbean Sea and posted video of Marines and sailors climbing aboard. The military framed it as enforcement of President Trump’s order that no sanctioned vessel moves Venezuelan oil unless it is "coordinated properly and lawfully."
Trail. Tracking firm TankerTrackers.com reported the Veronica left Venezuelan waters empty in early January. The International Maritime Organization database shows the ship had previously been registered in Russia under different names.
Clampdown. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the Coast Guard executed the seizure with support from the military and coordination with the state and justice departments, "in accordance with international law."
Politics. The seizure landed just hours before Trump was set to meet Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado at the White House. Trump has praised her as a "freedom fighter" but is backing Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s former vice-president, as interim president.
