Who's Gonna Tell Him?

Hi Global Recap readers,

We’re heading into the weekend with an outward sense of calm, but economic circles are... loud.

• On the surface, it seems quiet—no major announcements from world leaders.

• Online, yesterday’s surprisingly weak jobs report are getting many to point fingers everywhere: some blame Trump, others Biden, and some even hold the Federal Reserve responsible.

To make sense of it all, I’ve tried to break down the numbers in a concise and digestible way for anyone interested. 👇🏼

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
FOLLOW UP:
Secretary of War

Let’s begin by revisiting the Trump administration’s decision to rename the US Department of Defense as the Department of War.

• Signing: President Donald Trump just signed an order letting the Pentagon use its pre-1947 title.

• Next Step: Now, War Secretary Hegseth must propose legislative and executive actions to make the name permanent.

• Implementation: The Pentagon’s website now redirects to war.gov.

🇷🇺 RUSSIA
Putin Threatens
Foreign Troops

Vladimir Putin warned that any non-Ukrainian soldiers entering Ukraine before a ceasefire would be treated as legitimate targets by Russian forces.

• Setting: He made the remarks today at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok while fielding questions from attendees.

• Trigger: The warning followed a September 4 meeting in Paris where French President Emmanuel Macron said 26 countries were ready to offer postwar security guarantees for Ukraine, including potential deployments “on land, in the sea or in the air.”

• Position: Putin argued that foreign troop presence is one of the main reasons Ukraine seeks NATO membership and said such deployments would be destroyed if they appeared during active hostilities.

• Diplomacy: He added that if a long-term peace deal is reached, he sees “no point” in foreign troops staying in Ukraine.

• Promise: Putin pledged a “100% guarantee“ for his security should bilateral talks take place in Moscow.

🇻🇪 VENEZUELA
Maduro
Wants to Talk

Venezuelan President Maduro publicly urged Washington to open dialogue just hours after President Donald Trump warned he would shoot down Venezuelan military jets that threaten US forces. Critics of Maduro are mocking him for FAFO.

• Trigger: The Pentagon accused Venezuelan aircraft of buzzing US Navy ships in the Caribbean following a deadly American strike on what it called a Venezuelan drug boat.

• Deployment: The US is sending 10 F-35 fighter jets to Puerto Rico to join warships already stationed in the southern Caribbean.

• Denial: Maduro rejected US claims that he leads a drug cartel, insisting Venezuela is “free from coca leaf production” and actively fights trafficking.

• Broadcast: His call for talks aired nationwide across all Venezuelan radio and television networks.

• Demand: Maduro said dialogue must come with “respect” and no path toward military conflict.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
Trump Targets
Hostage States

President Donald Trump just signed an executive order creating a “state sponsor of wrongful detention” label to punish countries that imprison Americans as leverage.

• Scope: The order lets the Secretary of State tag both recognized governments and groups controlling territory, like the Taliban in Afghanistan, with the new designation.

• Penalties: Sanctions, visa bans, foreign aid cuts, and travel restrictions for US passport holders are all on the table.

• Targets: Nations with histories of holding Americans, including Russia, Iran, China, Venezuela, and Afghanistan, could face the label.

• Process: Countries will get a warning and a set period to release detainees before designation.

• Reaction: Advocacy groups like the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation called it “a critical step forward,” while former detainee Paul Whelan urged better post-release support.

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES
US Hiring Stalls

The US economy just added 22,000 jobs in August, far below the 75,000 forecast, as unemployment ticked up to 4.3 percent.

Broad Picture

• Details: The real concern is that the 22k-job increase came mostly from a rise in part-time positions.

  • Part Time: +597k

  • Full Time: - 357k

• Trend: So, are Americans leaving full-time jobs for part-time work? The reality is more complicated than that.

  • The total number of multiple job holders with two or more part-time jobs has also been trending up for years now.

  • In fact, critics have raised concerns throughout Biden’s presidency as well.

  • Many believe the US economy (and by extension, the global economy) hasn’t been the same since the Great Recession of 2008.

Details

• Revision: July’s payroll gain of 79,000 was revised higher by 6,000, but June’s count now shows a net loss of 13,000 jobs.

• Politics: This was the first jobs report since President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, replacing her with acting chief William Wiatrowski.

• Sectors: Health care added 31,000 positions and social assistance 16,000, while manufacturing and wholesale trade each cut 12,000.

  • Regarding health care job losses, critics are calling this the “RFK job recession.”

  • Since Trump’s “Liberation Day” in April, manufacturing businesses lost around 42k jobs.

Blame Game?

But is this entirely the fault of Trump? This graph seems to show that it is part of a broader trend.

What’s Ahead?

• Markets: Traders now fully expect a quarter-point Fed rate cut on September 17, with a small chance of a half-point move.

  • The Federal Reserve has held rates steady since December 2024 but faces pressure to ease policy as hiring momentum fades and manufacturing contracts for a fourth straight month.

  • The Fed’s caution makes sense. They dismissed COVID-era inflation as “transitory” (a phrase that’s since turned into a meme) and now they’re wary of cutting rates too soon in case Trump’s tariffs trigger a fresh near-term spike in prices.

  • The Fed operates under a dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. When prices rise but wages don’t keep up, jobs lose value. When wages do rise, they can fuel more inflation by boosting demand. That cycle shows just how tough it is for the Fed to strike the right balance with the limited tools of monetary policy.

  • That’s why central banks often view job losses as the lesser evil compared with runaway inflation, which erodes purchasing power throughout the economy. We all feel this today, with the lingering effects of COVID-era inflation.

• Broader: The broader underemployment rate, including discouraged and involuntary part-time workers, rose to 8.1%.