Your choice?

Hi Global Recap readers,

It’s widely understood that many OECD countries are dealing with fertility rates that have fallen below the replacement level of about 2.1 births per woman.

• The OECD average total fertility rate fell from 3.3 (1960) to 1.5 (2022).

• In the EU, it dropped from 1.46 (2022) to 1.38 (2023), the largest year-over-year decline recorded since 1961.

That leaves governments with two broad policy levers:

1. Domestic: Raise fertility through things like childcare support, tax credits, housing help, parental leave, etc. (possible, but slow and hard to sustain)

2. Foreign: Grow the population by bringing in more immigrants (typically faster and more flexible)

So which lever is China pulling? 👇🏼

🇨🇳 CHINA
Condom VAT, Baby Bust

China just put a 13% VAT on condoms and other contraceptives starting Jan. 1, trying to nudge a shrinking population into having more kids.

• Policy: The tax hits common birth control like condoms and pills after a decades-long exemption, while the government is simultaneously carving out tax relief for family-related services like childcare in its broader "pro-birth" push.

• Numbers: China’s population fell for a third straight year in 2024, ending the year around 1.408 billion, with about 9.54 million births and roughly 10.93 million deaths.

• Reaction: Online, people are mostly rolling their eyes. The core argument they are making:

  • Condoms are not the problem—housing, childcare, education costs, and job insecurity are.

  • If you cannot afford a kid, a slightly pricier box of condoms is not moving the needle.

• Health: Critics also argue that restricting access to contraception would disproportionately harm students and low-income people.

  • The likely result is more unintended pregnancies and higher STI rates concentrated in those groups.

  • Framed that way, the policy looks less “pro-family” and more like shifting health and economic risk onto a specific demographic.

📊 Poll

“Condom VAT” is a catchy label, I admit. But it’s more than just putting a tax on contraception, as it signals that China is clearly leaning more toward option 1 (boosting population through domestic policy) rather than option 2 (relying on mass immigration).

Talking to some peers, I’ve gotten pretty mixed takes.

• Some don’t love government subsidies in general, but still prefer them to what they see as immigration moving too fast without enough vetting.

• Others would rather lean on immigration instead, for many different reasons.

🇮🇷 IRAN
Day 5: Protests Turn
Deadly Nationwide

Iran’s cost-of-living protests turned lethal on Thursday, with reports of six deaths in street clashes.

• Deaths: Iranian outlets and the rights group Hengaw reported two people killed in Lordegan in southwestern Iran, plus three deaths in Azna and one in Kouhdasht in western Iran, with conflicting claims about whether the Kouhdasht victim was security-linked or a protester.

• Message: Protesters are calling for an end to the supreme leader’s rule, and some are openly talking about a return to monarchy, while President Masoud Pezeshkian promised to hear “legitimate demands” as the prosecutor general warned of a “decisive response” to any instability.

Live Fire

These videos reportedly show regime forces opening fire in the middle of a street, along with footage of the aftermath of gunfire in other parts of the country.

Raisi Statue Toppled

Former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May 2024. While official investigations in Iran have attributed the crash to weather conditions and technical issues, some observers continue to speculate that foreign actors may have been involved.

To commemorate him, a statue of Raisi was erected in Ardabil in December 2025.

But now, it has been toppled.

Crypto For Weapons

Iran’s Ministry of Defence Export Center (MINDEX) is marketing exports of missiles and other advanced systems, with payment options that reportedly include cryptocurrency.

• The approach appears to have been rolled out over roughly the past year, aimed at buyers looking to route around Western-controlled financial channels and sanctions.

• It’s drawing more attention now for obvious reasons. The question is whether this is just opportunistic salesmanship, or part of a longer-term “escape hatch.”

Weapons Flowing In

But that’s not all. There are now reports of multiple Belarus-linked airlifts flying into Tehran as part of an alleged Russia–China effort to keep Iran’s security apparatus supplied with weapons as protests spread nationwide.

If these protests continue to escalate, Iran could end up with a new government.

• But because the state still controls the coercive apparatus (security forces, intelligence services, and the legal system) a transition seems less likely than a drawn-out standoff.

• A more plausible path may look closer to Myanmar unless outside actors significantly alter the balance of power in a way that strengthens civilian forces and raises the costs of a crackdown. 👇🏼

🇲🇲 MYANMAR
Yangon “Votes” Under Fear

Myanmar's military rulers have started their first election since the 2021 coup, but people in Yangon describe a sham wrapped in surveillance and silence. Even quick street conversations now come with rules: no names, no politics, no lingering.

• Backdrop: The vote is being held in three phases scheduled to end on January 25, as the junta sells it as a return to "democracy and stability," while the U.N. and Western governments reject that framing and call it illegitimate.

• Fear: Residents describe a city that looks normal on the surface but feels wired for punishment, with people avoiding political talk even in taxis and on buses because "they are listening," and many saying they feel "like I'm living in jail."

• Violence: After the February 1, 2021 coup, mass protests were met with lethal force, with more than 400 people killed in the streets by the end of March and tens of thousands arrested since, fueling a resistance that helped spread war across roughly two-thirds of the country by late 2023.

• Coercion: The article describes abductions and extortion, including one case where a man was pulled into a taxi, blindfolded, forced to call his family for a $1,200 ransom, and then disappeared when they could not pay.

• Economy: Daily life is also being crushed by money problems, with inflation tied to the kyat losing about 80% of its value since the coup, GDP down 9% since 2020 (per the U.N.), and fewer tourists and foreign businesses, even in once-bustling markets.